Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

 

[thenewguy1979]

TSLA still look Bullish to me. Heck the whole Market look Bullish, beside some sell-off at closing.
Overall better then yesterday,

Thought PPI data look hot?

How are we position for tomorrow guys.....Mooning continue or dump?

 

[elasalle]

Take a look at the Wayve videos, especially the ones driving around London. They've been doing it for a long time and it looks impressive. The Bill Gates blog on his ride there is credible, and that was a year ago. That made me wonder what else I was missing, so I looked into the recent cars coming out of China.

XPeng has a decent autopilot that operates on highway and city that's no longer dependent on maps. Most cars seem to have some level of FSD. Also, the new IM Motors L6 is around $50k and includes 1000 km WLTC (>400 miles EPA) and < 3 sec 0-60, has been getting strong reviews.

The competition from China looks shockingly strong, especially for the price. The cars from the west, especially non-Tesla brands, have been lagging the ones in Asia by years. No doubt the reason behind Elon saying that the China companies are the real competition.

I wonder if that's why he feels that the need to pivot Tesla towards FSD. Competing on the hardware side is a losing battle against the Chinese OEMs. With the AI chip ban against China, Tesla has a potential chance of competing if they're allowed to train their base FSD model in western datacenters.

Otoh, if Tesla is required to train the FSD model within China, competing against the Chinese OEMs will be much harder.

FSD is everywhere, take a look at this video from India. Road doesn't even have markers.

I think just like AI there are many who want to solve this problem
Now it seems race is on and who ever has most compute/data will have an advantage.

If Tesla trains FSD in China, chances of tech leak will be even higher.


cheers!!

 

[tivoboy]

TSLA still look Bullish to me. Heck the whole Market look Bullish, beside some sell-off at closing.
Overall better then yesterday,

Thought PPI data look hot?

How are we position for tomorrow guys.....Mooning continue or dump?

PPI WAS hot today but the past months were revised down and one even to NEGATIVE .01. So I think people are thinking that CPI COULD be at or down tomorrow which would spark further pump and most likely BOT for this round.

 

[Jim Holder]

Check out the second paragraph:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790138575851565455

 

[thenewguy1979]

Check out the second paragraph:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790138575851565455

Waiting for ASS...common Elon.... we need some ASS

Before we go down the gutter, ASS = Actually Smart Summon.......
Pretty sure it supposed to come with 12.4 and if true and working as intended would positive impact SP.

 

[Max Plaid]

PPI WAS hot today but the past months were revised down and one even to NEGATIVE .01. So I think people are thinking that CPI COULD be at or down tomorrow which would spark further pump and most likely BOT for this round.

Have been busy all day... had to go to physical office for an in-person meeting, imagine! Then a back massage and music rehearsal - it's all go around here, I can tell you!

So the end result is that I missed the HoD, but tbh the way things are looking I'm letting the -p180's run for the moment, there's a fair chance the SP closes 175 - 180 on Friday, a good risk/reward from here -> 100x -180 straddles in play @$10.8 per pair, a lot of extrinsic to drain out of it trades around here for a few days

 

[thenewguy1979]

just physical or colonoscopy? Market seems to have reacted nicely

Whatever Max did please do it again tomorrow. We need another green day

 

[OrthoSurg]

Where is everyone? All in a state of shock at the green colour the chart??

Looking at my 6x 170 CCs drawn underwater

 

[aerocristobal]

Personally when I buy LEAPS the strikes are usually about half the stock price. So, a 10% drop in long term value is a 20% loss. I do them as a share substitute and to free up cash. I have some June and December LEAPS in TSLA that will be pretty big losses unless some magic happens, but I have covered them with other trading to the point that I look at it as sunk cash.

This is an interesting and very helpful nugget. I've been managing a set of SMCI shares I got assigned in early April for $975. Thanks to a pearl of wisdom from @dl003, I did a naked put and reduced my trade by half. Originally, I was planning to do a spread. It made the risk seem smaller than it really could have been. I'm using about half my margin carrying the shares, which I'm comfortable doing, but it's narrowed my trading focus until I can reduce my margin use. The other consideration is that the interest is increasing my cost basis for a profitable trade.

I've gotten my breakeven cost basis down to just under $900 with covered calls, not including interest. I've been thinking about selling the shares and buying LEAPS (Jun 25) to continue selling covered calls and get the overall trade to break even, with a little profitability. Your 50% rule of thumb makes the LEAPS idea seem feasible. My break even cost basis would go up to $976, but my margin use would drop by about half, and reduce my interest drag.

Hopefully, SMCI will be back over 900 in the next few months, and I can close this out. It would be great to get some perspective on what folks think about reducing margin interest drag vs. increasing the breakeven cost basis. Keep the stocks or buy some LEAPS?

 

[dl003]

Im semi expecting 23x in June. For that to happen, we need to see 180 broken this week. The timeline may have got moved up. Mk needs to roll over right now, otherwise this next leg up can make the 139-199 run look like child play.

 

[Jim Holder]

Im semi expecting 23x in June. For that to happen, we need to see 180 broken this week. The timeline may have got moved up. Mk needs to roll over right now, otherwise this next leg up can make the 139-199 run look like child play.

Great to hear! If so that means we need to be careful/resist selling CCs as SP moves through the $180’s and maybe instead sell -P160 or just sit out?

 

[tivoboy]

Im semi expecting 23x in June. For that to happen, we need to see 180 broken this week. The timeline may have got moved up. Mk needs to roll over right now, otherwise this next leg up can make the 139-199 run look like child play.

I have a $237 number target on my charts that I didn’t want to communicate since it’s VERY low probability and closer in than June. But the possibility but NOT probability is certainly out there for a measured move to that level. I’d be selling every day of the week at that point.

 

[dl003]

i expected low 160s but also spy 480. if spy goes to 530+ first, 167 could have been it. if we see 180+ tomorrow, be very afraid if short.

Great to hear! If so that means we need to be careful/resist selling CCs as SP moves through the $180’s and maybe instead sell -P160 or just sit out?

there are 2 scenarios if 180 is broken.

in 1, it goes to ~190 before dropping back to 175 - the last refueling station before the rocket.

in 2, it goes to ~200.

I lean 1.

 

[dl003]

I have a $237 number target on my charts that I didn’t want to communicate since it’s VERY low probability and closer in than June. But the possibility IF NOT probability is certainly out there for a measured move to that level. I’d be selling every day of the week at that point.

my plan as well. I will need daily norm. macd, rsi and mfi to line up, which they 99% will at that level.

 

[Jim Holder]

I have a $237 number target on my charts that I didn’t want to communicate since it’s VERY low probability and closer in than June. But the possibility IF NOT probability is certainly out there for a measured move to that level. I’d be selling every day of the week at that point.

I’d love to escape half my longs at $237 area, would be great relief (been stuck with those from assignment @$243 over a year ago; scalped CCs off them like crazy since).

So this means selling -C210 July 10 @$8-10 isn’t a deal anymore if we see it in the next few days, right?

 

[tivoboy]

I’d love to escape half my longs at $237 area, would be great relief (been stuck with those from assignment @$243 over a year ago; scalped CCs off them like crazy since).

So this means selling -C210 July 10 @$8-10 isn’t a deal anymore if we see it in the next few days, right?

Well again VERY LOW probability but charts is charts.. but that July 210 has only gotten cheaper at this point, but if it WERE to get to say 12-15$, I’d probably be selling that if I still wanted to hold shares and not quibble about the extra 5%.

Overall mkt pain trade AT THE MOMENT is higher, as I said if CPI is flat to down for whatever reason and we rally hard that’s going to be Blow Off Top IMO, and will be a net selling event either shares or calls. I’m ready. Fortunately (or unfortunately), I’m still HST so its early to rise, but not in the air till about 2+ hours post mkt close.

 

[bballshinobi]

so we are bullish now, right?

 

[dl003]

so we are bullish now, right?

mid term Ive been bullish to 260 since before ER.
short term tomorrow will decide the path for the coming weeks. If over 180 first, brace for the bull train.

If under 175 first, then low 160s still on the table but eventually 237-260.

Literally the tightest condition ever.

 

[dl003]

I think the Iran Israel debacle ****ed the market big time. It created a big volatility event that pulled a lot of bearish PA upfront then abruptly ended leading to a squeeze. Mk didnt get the chance to fully retrace.