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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Elon here says: "Whether Russia ultimately takes Odesa/Odessa is the only remaining question, in my opinion. Russia for sure will not rest until all oblasts incorporated into the Russian constitution (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia) are taken. That is their stated policy."
Stated policies alone are irrelevant. Just days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia said they would not invade. Russia also placed several red-line threats which were also false. Point being - Putin/Russia should be understood based on historical patterns/actions.
All of Putin's main goals failed. These included his objective to reach Kiev and at a minimum install a puppet Russian leader. He also failed to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine is hugely militarized and now makes orders of magnitude more indigenous weapons than before.
So these days, Putin's best hope is for Ukraine to become a failed State. That means his next steps will include renewed attempts to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure.
Eastern Europeans are rightly worried Putin will try similar approaches on them if given the opportunity. What has been long said remains true – Putin only understands/respects power.
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Exactly. Putin will stop when he is forced to stop. Not an inch less. He's running the country like he's playing a game of Civilization.
He'll stop when he falls out a window or eats a bad potato. I don't think the FSB does it NKVD style any more.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Perhaps referring to Russia's historical changes in name of their NKVD->KGB->FSB. Same right hand instrument of Russia's 21st and 20th century dictators, but with fewer executions and gulags out in the open these days?
Back in the NKVD days they weren't as subtle as the KGB and now the FSB is. It was usually just a bullet at the base of the back of the head, which was their signature.
Elon claims he goes to the fundamentals of things and rebuilds from there. He did with cars and rocketry, but he hasn't with history and culture and it shows.
He's working from the Russian talking point that the native Russian speakers in Ukraine are on Russia's side. The native Russian speakers who can be polled (those still living in free Ukrainian territory) were leaning Russia when the war began, but are overwhelmingly anti-Russia today. This is especially true of the Russian speakers in territories that Ukraine has freed from occupation.
If Elon knew one whit about the culture or the history, he would understand that. He should be locked in a room for a week with Timothy Snyder instead of hanging out with his pro-Russian "friends".
Always watch the feet, they tell you far more than someone's mouth. True of any group or anyone in power. If what they have said is consistent with what they have done, then you probably can trust what they are saying now. If they have a history of inconsistency between what they say and what they do, what they are currently saying is probably a lie.
Most dictators are content to rule over their personal kingdom and leave their neighbors alone for the most part. It's bad for the people of that country, but the rest of the world is safe. Some dictators have territorial ambitions. They want what their neighbors have and they want to conduct wars to take it by force.
When such a dictator does not have the means to make their own weapons, they can be starved out by cutting off their arms supply. That's pretty much what the west did to Iraq after the first Gulf War. Saddam Hussein did little to interfere with his neighbors after that because he didn't have the army to do it anymore.
The most dangerous combination is a dictator with territorial ambitions combined with the ability to make their own arms. Putin has demonstrated he definitely has territorial ambitions and while Russia's defense industry is a shadow of the old Soviet industry, it's still one of the largest in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_industry#World's_largest_arms_exporters
When the world gets a combination of a dictator who can make their own weapons and wants to invade their neighbors, the world must combine forces to ensure that dictator is put down. Such dictators will only negotiate to buy time for their next move. Putin has made it clear that he will not be happy until all parts of the Russian/Soviet empire at its peak are back under Moscow's control. That includes the former Warsaw Pact and most of Asia.
About the only thing worse that Russia's ambitions would be an ambitious dictator taking over the United States.
Elon Musk is a fool to think otherwise.
Carl Bildt, the Former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister, thinks that the long overdue US support package along with promised EU contributions, will position Ukraine to win, unless the US electorate puts Putin's puppet back in charge.
Trump is Putin’s only hope now
Trump is Putin’s only hope now
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
One of the Russian Dicator's latest War Crimes. Putin and his minons used a ballistic Iskander-M with a Cluster Munition War Head to attack Civilians in Ukraine at the Odesa boardwalk(?). 5 dead this far and ~30 injured. There's video clearly showing the Cluster Munition exploding in the post/tweet below.
kyivindependent.com
twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1785255104154640776
Updated: Russian strike on Odesa kills 5, injures around 30
According to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper, a missile struck residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
kyivindependent.com
twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1785255104154640776
One of the Russian Dicator's latest War Crimes. Putin and his minons used a ballistic Iskander-M with a Cluster Munition War Head to attack Civilians in Ukraine at the Odesa boardwalk(?). 5 dead this far and ~30 injured. There's video clearly showing the Cluster Munition exploding in the post/tweet below.
Updated: Russian strike on Odesa kills 5, injures around 30
According to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper, a missile struck residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1785255104154640776
The other day someone in the Israeli war thread was contending that Hamas was the worst group in the world today. They are a nasty piece of work, but they have a lot of competition unfortunately.
History has shown that attempting to demoralize civilians by attacking them with strategic weapons has the opposite effect. It kills a few, but just ticks off the rest. And Iskanders aren't cheap, they cost $3 mil a missile. A pretty cost ineffective way to attack those civilians. These sorts of attacks are not just craven, they are stupid for more than one reason.
Newsweek says the Kirch bridge was shut down, but no corroborating evidence that I know of.
www.newsweek.com
Edit- IMHO Newsweek has gotten quite sketchy over the years…
Crimea rocked by explosions as bridge shut: reports
Kyiv has fired ATACMS missiles at Crimea overnight on Monday, according to the head of a pro-Russian group operating in Ukraine.
www.newsweek.com
Edit- IMHO Newsweek has gotten quite sketchy over the years…
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I think they're misinterpreting the situation. They might not be aware that Russia shuts down bridge traffic anytime there's anything happening near it without appreciating that there's other targets than the bridge in that area.
DanCar
Active Member
I think the misinterpretation is by a few of those reading the Newsweek article. I found it to be both accurate and informative.
Well there's your problem. Your understanding requires reading the article. Ain't nobody got time for that.
navguy12
Active Member
From today’s Guardian Ukraine war newsfeed:
www.theguardian.com
Ukraine war briefing: Kharkiv residents suffer as Russia intensifies attacks
Ukraine’s second-largest city has suffered ‘extensive damage’ to civilian infrastructure and a sharp increase in casualties; woman, 98, walks out of besieged city on her own. What we know on day 798
www.theguardian.com
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Diesel up 10% in Russia during the past week according to the Dictator's own minions.
NOTE: The red hyperlinks below seem to lead to Russian sites. As someone who isn't an IT-expert, I'm not sure if clicking on those links can come with risks...
...] Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production. [...
www.politico.eu
NOTE: The red hyperlinks below seem to lead to Russian sites. As someone who isn't an IT-expert, I'm not sure if clicking on those links can come with risks...
...] Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production. [...
Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasoline
Ukraine is taking out oil refineries inside Russia, cratering Moscow’s supplies and sending local prices soaring.
www.politico.eu
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DanCar
Active Member
Not too shabby Ukraine economy: $3.3 billion exports in April, exceeds pre war amount.
