***I realize there are tons of arguments about WHEN tesla will achieve robotaxi. Not looking to re-hash that here. For the sake of argument lets assume they solve it within 5 years.***
I’ve never seen a definitive answer from Tesla on this. Does anyone who purchased FSD gone through all the terms & conditions to see if robotaxi is mentioned? They do say this includes improvements via SW update, so is the improvement to L4 or L5 included in that statement? I assume that the current FSD price is probably too low unless Tesla gets their robotaxi money as a split of revenue, but on the other hand it seems high to not include it.
I want a cheaper base level cybertruck so I feel like im a solid 3-5 years for that. Due to price cuts and tax incentives a 36k Y is interesting. However, selling the Y in 3-5 years seems like I would NOT get good value since they keep improving and lowering prices. IF i can keep it indefinitely as a robotaxi that would be a no brainer, but at this point I have NO clue what that cost would be.
The short answer is "no". Certainly, don't count on it. I always say, buy a Tesla if you want the car, but don't buy a Tesla, hoping that it will be a robotaxi. There is no guarantee that Tesla will ever do robotaxis.
But even if we go with your assumption that Tesla achieves L4/L5, there are several issues:
1) Regulatory
A true robotaxi (no human driver in the car) would require regulatory approval in certain States like CA. For example, in CA, Tesla would need to get a bunch of permits, which take years, before they could deploy a robotaxi that makes money. If Tesla does not get those permits, you would not be able to use your Tesla as a robotaxi, even if it was capable of L4/L5.
2) Hardware
I think Elon has said that there will be no upgrade from HW3 to HW4. And we don't know what hardware will be required for robotaxi. Even if we go with your assumption that Tesla achieves L4/L5 in 5 years, it could be on some future hardware like HW5. Tesla has not promised that you will get that hardware.
3) Robotaxi Network
To function as a robotaxi, Tesla would need to release a ride-hailing app. Elon teased some mock ups a few years back during Autonomy Day but there has been no news on the app since AFAIK. We don't even know if Tesla is still working on a ride-hailing app or even if the app even exists. The images during Autonomy Day were likely just concept art and not proof of anything real. You could sign up for the Uber or Lyft app and use their ride-hailing network. But going back to #1, if Tesla does not get permission to remove the driver, then at best you could do Uber or Lyft ride-hailing with you still in the driver seat but the car drives. But you would still need to sit in the driver's seat so it would not be a real (driverless) robotaxi.
Elon has also teased a dedicated robotaxi vehicle but so far, I don't think we've even seen images of it. It is total vaporware at this point. Tesla would still need to design this robotaxi vehicle, test it, produce it, etc...
Frankly, I think robotaxis is just something Elon says to sell the "FSD" package to Tesla owners. It has been a clever selling point that "your Tesla will make you money as a robotaxi". At this point, it is a scam. I say that because Tesla has not done any of the work to actually do robotaxis. They don't have L4/L5. They don't have a robotaxi vehicle. They don't a ride-hailing app. They don't have any permits to even test a robotaxi or any of the permits to deploy a commercial robotaxi. Even if Tesla achieves L4/L5, they still need to do a lot of validation to make sure it is safe and reliable. There is also the matter of being able to handle pick ups and drop offs reliably without human intervention. Tesla has done nothing on that. And they don't have any remote assistance that you need in order to assist a driverless robotaxi that gets stuck. Without remote assistance or road side assistance, you would need to stay in the car at all times in order to assist the car if it gets stuck or has a flat tire or something.