If you're buying a $40k car you pretty much have over $7500 unless you're retired or have some special circumstances. If you don't you can always lease the car and it gets rolled into the price of the lease.
Furthermore the Model 3 will NOT have the $7500 tax credit for long because it's only for the first 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla is already over 50,000 sold and will likely Sell 50,000 next year in the US so 2017 they will only have it for the beginning of the year before they run out.
Would you like some more accurate numbers to play with? It doesn't run out any time soon and it doesn't run out all at once.
I'm going to quote myself from another thread.
since it's been a few months I'll update the sales numbers
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for partial 2015 + prior years)
The current rate has them selling more than 20,000 in the US for 2015. Ramping up Model X and production in general might trigger the 200,000 mark in 2018? I figure it'll be a Model 3 that is the 200,000th sold in the US (or at least Model 3 sales will be under the 200,000 mark and contribute to the total).
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.
For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.
If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit. They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.
Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.
Now to update the current totals at end of October 2015 would be
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 Oct 58,400 (18,900 for partial 2015 + prior years)
If we do another 5,000 US in 2015 we'll be around 64,000 US by end of 2015.
Do the math if Tesla is doing less than 25,000 a year US in 2015 how many years will it take to hit 200,000 US sales? They'll ramp up S and X production but there will still be plenty of discounts on Model 3.
Lets say 50,000 US for 2016 and 75,000 US for 2017, and maybe some of the tail of 2017 are founders Model 3. Then in 1Q 2018 they open the floodgates and a ton of Signature Model 3s come out, in 2Q 2018 a ton of regular model 3s come out all with full tax credit. Hoorah, look at this again
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q4 2017 founders Model 3 with full credit
Q1 2018 signature Model 3 with Full credit
Q2 2018 production Model 3 with Full credit (will they be making 10,000 a week by then? Maybe 12 weeks worth is 100,000 Model 3s with full credit?)
Q3 2018 50% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with half credit)
Q4 2018 50% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with half credit, with extra production going outside the US)
Q1 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with quarter credit, with extra production going outside the US)
Q2 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with quarter credit, with extra production going outside the US)
Q3 2019 No credit
all in all they might get out 100,00 with full credit, 200,000 with half credit, and another 200,000 with quarter credit. I'd hardly call 500,00 Model 3s in 2018/2019 the same as your version of none of them getting the credit.
Shift that back a quarter and 100,000 less cars get a full credit, shift that forward a quarter and 100,000 more get a full credit. Just depends when they can start cranking out Model 3 en masse.
