ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I pretty much agree but don't expect to see any big battery RWD models, I doubt that will be an option.
Could be right. Simplifies things a bit.
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I pretty much agree but don't expect to see any big battery RWD models, I doubt that will be an option.
No, I was also talking about Model 3 deliveries. But obviously the very first cars won't be sent overseas. The first 10k cars should be sufficient to work out any quality issues. And then, after that, if Tesla decides to ensure as many US customers as possible get the credit, they could send most of the production to Europe/Asia for 2-3 quarters, while ramping up production to something like 200k cars/year. Then they cross the 200k line and deliver 100-150k Model 3 in the US in the following 6 months.He wasn't talking about prioritizing overseas Model 3 deliveries, he was talking about prioritizing overseas Model S/X deliveries to prevent from crossing the 200k US delivery threshold toward the end of a quarter.
He hasn't reconfirmed, because he honestly doesn't know.
but maybe you can try this to find out.
Let me google that for you
Unfortunately we are at the very bottom of the list (rhd).do you think you can say... "let me know when you're making the standard ones... and keep me in line for one of the first of those". As I'm in the UK. Ordered on Friday afternoon I think I'm probably around 140,000. But I might be in the top 500 in the UK (given low Model S sales here) - given that UK Tesla is a long way behind Europe and that's behind the US. Maybe by then the company will be churning out standard ones too.
They definitely won't throttle production (i.e. produce less than they have capacity for). If they try to ensure that as many people as possible get the credit, they will probably try to do this by prioritizing overseas markets first, and then when the production rate hits a sufficiently high number, deliver everything they can in the US for a few quarters. The longer they can delay crossing the 200k number, the higher the production rate will be, and the more people will get the credit.
This would actually fit very well with the Norwegian tax issue - after 2017, taxes will start to be phased in. Norway needs as many deliveries as possible as soon as possible.
Thanks. I'm familiar with Google.. I was asking the question to prove a point that nobody knows and Tesla has not stated (post reservation) that higher spec models will automatically take priority regardless of when they're ordered. Yes this happened for S and X when a few thousand were reserved and there's a good chance the 3 production will follow a similar prioritization. As you said, we don't know anything, but I'm enjoying the discussion and speculation.
If I'm reading this correctly, it's not the order is which you made your deposit, it's the amount of bells and whistles you add that determine when you get it. If that's the case, why would a person who just wants a bare bones car camp out overnight to be first in line only to pushed to the back of the line by someone with more money?
Logistically speaking, it will be interesting to see if Tesla blasts out a link to the configurator to all 133k first day preorders, 325k current preorders, or whatever the number becomes by launch to ask them if they want the P90DL and, if the answer is no, say "oh just kidding will get back to you in a year or 2."
I find it hard to imagine it would be all 100k top-of-the-lines first, then all 100k non-performance, then 200k base cars for this reason. Speculation is fun!
...has been broken down Zapruder-style.
I've played around with the numbers, and I don't think you can shift meaningful demand almost regardless of the strategy. The best Tesla can do is ensure they cross the 200k line in the first week of a quarter.Why is it that every non-US market seems to think they're going to get an early shot at this car if the production strategy changes?
You're not getting the X yet, are you?
You might get S's and X's in this strategy, but not the 3.
<Raises hand> My birthday is November 22nd.How many people here know who Zapruder was?
There WAS a movie in the 90s, for those of us not around for the actual event.....How many people here know who Zapruder was?
This ends up with 78k US Model 3 delivered with full tax credits. Now what if they do everything they can to prolong the tax credits, by delivering the Model 3 in Europe/Asia as well as shifting 6k Model S/X deliveries from Q2 2018 to Q3 2018?