Will EU Super Charger surpass the US briefly ?

[Benz]

Based on the numbers from the Supercharger Map the EU is currently 67% of the US, it has 116% in construction and by the numbers it has 53% in permit but I believe that the permitting is actually higher, as Cottonwood stated, because the US tends to find more in permitting and the EU tends to permit in large batches rather than 1 at a time. at a 15% greater growth rate than the US it should catch up in 2-3 months. Also, given that the land area of the EU is less than half that of the US it could easily be argued that they may have actually already passed us.

Numbers to back that up:

EU 1 Supercharger / 134,250 sqkm or 1/51,834 sqmi
US 1 Supercharger / 186,820 sqkm or 1/72,131 sqmi

And I believe that TM should be shooting for about 1/16,500 sqmi for pretty good coverage even in a MS60

The EU has not passed the US with the actual number of live Supercharger stations (and that is not going to happen anytime soon). The US has currently almost 40 Supercharger stations more than the EU has.

 

[Kevin Harney]

The EU has not passed the US with the actual number of live Supercharger stations (and that is not going to happen anytime soon). The US has currently almost 40 Supercharger stations more than the EU has.

Not anytime soon, I think. Maybe in 2020?

You have said that many times with nothing to back up that opinion not even a WAG.

 

[Cottonwood]

You have said that many times with nothing to back up that opinion not even a WAG.

As I said before, if we extrapolate from the average of the last 3 months, Europe will pass North America in about 10 months.

 

[Kevin Harney]

As I said before, if we extrapolate from the average of the last 3 months, Europe will pass North America in about 10 months.

Sorry Cottonwood if you thought I meant you. And if you are supporting me thanks for the data.

 

[Benz]

As I said before, if we extrapolate from the average of the last 3 months, Europe will pass North America in about 10 months.

That's not going to happen.

The US is currently ahead of the EU, and that will remain the same in 2015.

The total number of new live Supercharger stations in the US in 2015 (more than 100) will be higher than the total number of new live Supercharger stations in the US in 2014 (less than 100).

That's my opinion.

 

[jvonbokel]

I disagree with those who are projecting that EU will surpass US anytime soon, based on existing data. Here's a chart I made from the same data Cottonwood is using.

The bars represent new chargers going live (left scale) and the lines are cumulative totals (right scale). Obviously EU surpassed US in the 3rd quarter, but they've slowed down substantially thus far in the 4th quarter.

However, as they say in the stock market, past performance is not indicative of future results. And Cottonwood seems to know a bit more about the future than the rest of us.

 

[Kevin Harney]

GREAT Graph !! Thanks. What would it look like if 14Q4 is the same as 14Q3 ?

 

[jvonbokel]

It would look like this, and I would say EU passing US would be fairly likely in early 2015.

 

[Cottonwood]

I disagree with those who are projecting that EU will surpass US anytime soon, based on existing data. Here's a chart I made from the same data Cottonwood is using.

The bars represent new chargers going live (left scale) and the lines are cumulative totals (right scale). Obviously EU surpassed US in the 3rd quarter, but they've slowed down substantially thus far in the 4th quarter.

However, as they say in the stock market, past performance is not indicative of future results. And Cottonwood seems to know a bit more about the future than the rest of us.

The one problem that I see with your data is that the Q4 is not finished, and your data for Q4 is presented as if the quarter is complete. That is why I have been using the trailing average of the last three months. Given that we are about 38% into Q4, you could correct your Q4 installs by dividing by 0.38. Doing that would make them look a lot like Q3, but with North America not quite so far behind on installs.

I have heard rumors that the North American completion rate will be rising. We can only hope...

 

[Kevin Harney]

Found this on the Supercharger Info site. Did not know it existed until today ( the chart that is ...)

 

[Cottonwood]

Found this on the Supercharger Info site. Did not know it existed until today ( the chart that is ...)

Exactly!

If you look at the last few months, you will see that Europe is growing faster than North America. That is what I have been quantifying with my 3-month average. Using that 3-month average, Europe will pass North America in about 10 months. Of course, the last 3 months does not predict the next 10 months, but it does show a pattern.

 

[jvonbokel]

your data for Q4 is presented as if the quarter is complete

Good point Cottonwood. I didn't mean to present it that way, and I definitely should've noted it. What's that old quote about lies, damn lies, and statistics? I'll call this an accidental lie. Just for fun, here's one with the Q4 numbers divided by 0.38. It looks more like what Kevin requested than the original chart. However, to me, it's still important to note that the gap in the US vs EU rates (bars) is narrowing compared to Q3. Also, I still think the US rate is going to spike in Dec like it did last year. Well, I hope it does, anyway.

P.S. No matter what happens, I still love data (and charts)!

 

[Benz]

Found this on the Supercharger Info site. Did not know it existed until today ( the chart that is ...)

View attachment 63055

I knew about it a long time ago.

The black line will stay below the blue line.

I repeat:

"The US is currently ahead of the EU, and that will remain the same in 2015.

The total number of new live Supercharger stations in the US in 2015 (more than 100) will be higher than the total number of new live Supercharger stations in the US in 2014 (less than 100).

That's my opinion."

 

[JRod0802]

This wasn't the originally asked question, but I just thought I'd point this out:

Current number of Super Chargers in USA: 127
Current number of Super Chargers not in USA: 125

The number of Super Charges not in USA is about to pass the number in USA.

 

[JRod0802]

And now (four days later), the number of superchargers outside the USA has, for the first time, exceeded the number of superchargers in the USA:

Current number of Super Chargers in USA: 127
Current number of Super Chargers not in USA: 128

 

[Kevin Harney]

35 charger difference and the gap is closing fast. EU 98. US 133.

 

[jvonbokel]

I'm not feeling as confident about my prediction lately. There are still more on the board for North America (18 Construction, 15 Permit) than Europe (11 Construction, 5 Permit), but they seem to be popping up faster in Europe. Perhaps the scouts over there just aren't as exhaustive in their searches.

 

[macpacheco]

I'm not feeling as confident about my prediction lately. There are still more on the board for North America (18 Construction, 15 Permit) than Europe (11 Construction, 5 Permit), but they seem to be popping up faster in Europe. Perhaps the scouts over there just aren't as exhaustive in their searches.

Quite a few SCs are popping up directly as "open" outside North America, while it seems to rarely (if ever) happen in North America. So the number of "In Construction" SCs outside North America is perhaps 30% less than the real number at any given point.

There are now at least 300 Operational + Under Construction SCs worldwide !

 

[arg]

seem to be popping up faster in Europe. Perhaps the scouts over there just aren't as exhaustive in their searches.

One issue is that in many cases (at least in the UK), Planning Permission (our equivalent of your permits) isn't required for installation of superchargers - so there's nothing to scout for until hardware appears on site.

I've found the planning application for one site in the UK that did need planning permission, which includes the text:

Indeed it is noteworthy that in accordance with the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) Order (as amended) the installation of upstands with electrical outputs for vehicle charging is Permitted Development within certain scale parameters and can only not be applied here as the land in question is not currently in use as car parking albeit there is an extant permission for parking in association with the approved office development.

"Permitted Development" is what you are allowed to do without applying for permission. So they are saying that normally adding Supercharging to an existing carpark would not need permission, it's only needed here because it's a green-field site and the developer hasn't got round to building any parking for the offices that are due to be built on the site later.

Almost all the other UK Superchargers have been on existing parking spaces, so would not have needed permission. This particular site we didn't find until construction started, partly because the Tesla map suggested that the site for this route would be close to the Channel ports - in fact, this site is half way to London (a long way away from the blob on the map) and will require another one on the other side of the Channel to complete the route into France.

 

[Kevin Harney]

100 EU to 133 USA. Gap closing FAST !! Gap lessened by 2 stations in 3 days.