Lots of people not affiliated with Tesla speak with authority about the 200,000 sales limit and they are surely just making guesses because Tesla refuses to provide any information. Anyone know why Tesla won't share this information so critical to many purchasers? I've never heard a reason from Tesla but maybe it has been explained?
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Why does Tesla hide the ball re total US sales?
- Thread starter azred
- Start date
From a strictly business standpoint it could be simply that if people are worried it will run out soon they are more likely to buy something more expensive (an S or X, or fully loaded 3) sooner rather than wait for a base model 3. Or it could just be that they haven't reached it yet and are wondering what all the fuss is about since they plan on letting everyone know when they hit it anyway.
Tesla likes to control the narrative about itself as much as possible...especially when it comes to sales numbers.
favo
P3D+ owner
The stock is already extremely volatile and the most shorted stock of all. No need to give the shorts more ammo. Numbers will be up and down for a while. Best you can hope for is the quarterly reports and that Tesla will try to maximize the tax credit, since Elon said they would "do the right thing" vs just pure profit seeking.
Don't worry much. If you buy a Tesla this year, you will get 100% of the $7500, even if it is in December.
The tax credit "starts to diminish" after two quarters of 100% tax credit *after* the 200,000 car is sold. The fact that it won't "run out" until 2020 is the point.
Sell it July 1st and you are going to see:
Q1 100% 2018
Q2 100%
Q3 100% (sell #200,000 on July 5th)
Q4 100%
Q1 50% 2019
Q2 50%
Q3 25%
Q4 25%
What's the fuss? The goal would be to have the factory "ready to crank up" some time in June for "what could be an infinite amount of output" in H2. If they make 100,000 or 200,000 cars in H2 of 2018, all USA buyers could basically get $7500. Timing is everything.
The Solar PV credit was extended by 5 years for 2017-2021. In 2016, before extension, there was a lot of Solar PV work out there, lots of projects. The solar PV installations for 2017 dropped even after the credit was extended due to pulling projects into 2016. if the push is to do a lot of cars in H2 of 2018, it may have a deteriorating effect on car-sales in 2019 as the lower priced Model 3s will be going out and have less support of the tax credit.
Now, if for some reason, #200,000 is sold in Q2, it looks like this
Q1 100% 2018
Q2 100% (sell #200,000 on June 29th)
Q3 100%
Q4 50%
Q1 50% 2019
Q2 25%
Q3 25%
Q4 00%
The problem here is how well will people properly handle the "date of service" of the new car? Will they all clamor into Q3 or cheat on taxes and claim 9/30 is their car's first date of service? I think it is more prudent to try to let the slide happen in Q1 and not Q4. We do know a lot of people claimed their got their cars in end of 2017 even though delivery didn't happen until January 2018. For the tax credit.
The tax credit "starts to diminish" after two quarters of 100% tax credit *after* the 200,000 car is sold. The fact that it won't "run out" until 2020 is the point.
Sell it July 1st and you are going to see:
Q1 100% 2018
Q2 100%
Q3 100% (sell #200,000 on July 5th)
Q4 100%
Q1 50% 2019
Q2 50%
Q3 25%
Q4 25%
What's the fuss? The goal would be to have the factory "ready to crank up" some time in June for "what could be an infinite amount of output" in H2. If they make 100,000 or 200,000 cars in H2 of 2018, all USA buyers could basically get $7500. Timing is everything.
The Solar PV credit was extended by 5 years for 2017-2021. In 2016, before extension, there was a lot of Solar PV work out there, lots of projects. The solar PV installations for 2017 dropped even after the credit was extended due to pulling projects into 2016. if the push is to do a lot of cars in H2 of 2018, it may have a deteriorating effect on car-sales in 2019 as the lower priced Model 3s will be going out and have less support of the tax credit.
Now, if for some reason, #200,000 is sold in Q2, it looks like this
Q1 100% 2018
Q2 100% (sell #200,000 on June 29th)
Q3 100%
Q4 50%
Q1 50% 2019
Q2 25%
Q3 25%
Q4 00%
The problem here is how well will people properly handle the "date of service" of the new car? Will they all clamor into Q3 or cheat on taxes and claim 9/30 is their car's first date of service? I think it is more prudent to try to let the slide happen in Q1 and not Q4. We do know a lot of people claimed their got their cars in end of 2017 even though delivery didn't happen until January 2018. For the tax credit.
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Big IF they delay the 200,000th sale to July. If it happens before that, then Oct - Dec 2018 is in the $3,750 group.
Could happen, but is not a given.
sreams
Member
It's probably not in Tesla's or anyone else's best interest to make it public that they are reworking their sales/deliveries in order to maximize the federal tax credit (if they are). It gives ammunition to legislators to repeal the credit, as they almost did at the end of 2017.
It's not just a guess. There is lots of data.
- 2012: Sales were only in North America. Global and Canada numbers are known. Therefore US = Global - Canada
- 2013: Sales were only in North America and Europe. Global, Canada and Europe numbers are known. Therefore US = Global - Canada - Europe
- 2014: Tesla released this year's US sales number: 16,689
- 2015: Tesla released this year's US sales number: 25,202
- Q3 2016: Tesla released this quarter's US sales number: 14,584
- Tesla's California sales are published by the California New Car Dealer's Association, CNCDA.org. See column S here.
- Global sales: These are released by Tesla. See column i here.
- Europe sales: This is public information. See column E here.
- Tesla's US revenue and Global revenue. This is released by Tesla in SEC documents. For example, Tesla says in 2017, 52.9% of their revenue came from sales in the US and they sold 103,084 cars globally. You can calculate an estimate for US sales units from these numbers.
In Q1 2018, I estimate 13K S/X and 11K Model 3s. That brings the total to 161+13+11= 185K at the end of Q1. The latest calculations show that Tesla will hit 200K on May 1st. Any day in Q2 means full credits will continue until the end of Q3. If this was close to the end of Q2, maybe they could try to delay it until July. Technically, they could still do it, but it would require shipping all Model 3's in Q2 to Canada which looks unlikely. Here is the latest situation:
Pessimistic Scenario (99% likely)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2019
- $7,500 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2019
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How do you get 11k Model 3? The spreadsheet says somewhere between 7760 and 9500 for production.
@schonelucht,
The VIN reports don't show the production increase that's expected to happen before the end of this quarter. Based on this document, Tesla still seems confident they can reach 2,500/week by the end of Q1. But they are running out of time in terms of delivering those cars in Q1 instead of just producing them. That said, 11K was an old estimate. I have looked at the numbers again, and 9.5K is more likely.
The VIN reports don't show the production increase that's expected to happen before the end of this quarter. Based on this document, Tesla still seems confident they can reach 2,500/week by the end of Q1. But they are running out of time in terms of delivering those cars in Q1 instead of just producing them. That said, 11K was an old estimate. I have looked at the numbers again, and 9.5K is more likely.
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Thanks @Troy. I am always going back and forth on when the 200th will happen. Currently my thinking is that Tesla is internally positioning themselves for if (or when) they miss their ramp up. For example if the extra semi-automatic lines don't happen before the end of Q1 and the German equipment isn't ready to scale up pretty much immediatly early in Q2 then we could be stuck at a 1k/week or less rate for two more months easily. That'd mean deliveries by first of May may only be 160k + 13k S/X in Q1 + 2k S/X in May + 9k 3 in Q1 + 4k 3 in May. Or 188k. At that point Canada becomes feasible again. Push full May production + first week of June (10k or so) to Canada (needs AWD though). Then restart filling the US pipeline at a rate of 3k/week. Use the remaining 12k to deliver S/X.
@dsvick,
If we believe Tesla, they have already so many orders that they can't deliver new S/X orders before June because all the other people that have ordered until now will get their cars in March, April, and May. I think we need to keep an eye on the Model S spreadsheet here, and the Model X version here. So far I don't see anything that suggests they have stopped production.
If we believe Tesla, they have already so many orders that they can't deliver new S/X orders before June because all the other people that have ordered until now will get their cars in March, April, and May. I think we need to keep an eye on the Model S spreadsheet here, and the Model X version here. So far I don't see anything that suggests they have stopped production.
@Beagle, check out the Model 3 Delivery Estimator. It integrates the federal tax credits information to search results.
After Tesla hits 200K US sales and before the federal tax credits drop to 50%, we will find out about it because the information will be released here. Therefore if somebody is unsure whether they should wait for AWD or go with RWD, there will be time to make a decision.
By the way, if somebody is claiming that Tesla might hit 200K in Q1 2018, here is a method you can use to test whether that claim is credible. Ask them to show you a quarterly table that has Model S/X US deliveries in one column and Model 3 in another column. Look at the Model 3 number for Q1 2018. Tesla will release the actual number on 2 or 3 April 2018. My numbers are in columns O, P, Z, AA here.
After Tesla hits 200K US sales and before the federal tax credits drop to 50%, we will find out about it because the information will be released here. Therefore if somebody is unsure whether they should wait for AWD or go with RWD, there will be time to make a decision.
By the way, if somebody is claiming that Tesla might hit 200K in Q1 2018, here is a method you can use to test whether that claim is credible. Ask them to show you a quarterly table that has Model S/X US deliveries in one column and Model 3 in another column. Look at the Model 3 number for Q1 2018. Tesla will release the actual number on 2 or 3 April 2018. My numbers are in columns O, P, Z, AA here.