What does 35K get me?

[strider]

I would say that Tesla has been fairly dynamic. Dynamic means that you quickly adjust to market conditions, and that's something Tesla has done with regards to the Model X. When they saw that Model S demand was greater than production capacity for probably several years, they put the Model X on the backburner. Then they gradually adjusted Model X development so that the Model X would come to market at just the point where production capacity would exceed Model S demand.

Did someone at Tesla say that they put Model X on the back burner? It doesn't make sense. What was the design team doing during this time? Sitting around? It would make more sense to finish Model X (even if they delayed production) and then move the design team on to Model 3. I think you're giving Tesla too much credit. I think Model X has simply taken this long.

Also, I don't think it will take years for Tesla to get most of the benefits of the Gigafactory. Even operating at one eight of the full production volume, it is a big factory, and with the new cell format and all the other improvements, the costs should be reduced substantially. If we assume a cost of 100 USD/kWh and a pack size of 60 kWh, that's 6,000 USD out of the total of 35,000 USD. I would say that it is equally important, if not more important, to focus on the 29,000 USD at Fremont.

Still, I doubt anyone will take delivery of a base Model 3 in the first 6 months of production.

I can't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head but I think battery prices are dropping ~2%/year. They hope to improve on that w/ the gigafactory but there's nothing special about the gigafactory that will drive costs down on day 1. Tesla has never made a battery and so are completely reliant on their partners for battery production expertise. On day 1 the gigafactory is going to be a carbon copy of the Panasonic production line which, aside from shipping savings, will be the same cost/kWh as it is today albeit at a higher volume. It will take time to drive those costs down. If Panasonic already had a way to do that they'd have done it on their own lines. I think it's going to be serious of small steps over time vs a few big steps.

Model S ramp-up was fairly slow, however. In all probability, Model 3 ramp-up will be faster. They'll probably make 50-100k Model 3 in the first year.

Everyone keeps talking about how Model 3 ramp-up will be faster when the evidence simply doesn't support that. If anything Tesla's ramp-ups are getting slower with each successive model. Further, they are talking about using different materials in Model 3 which will involve another learning curve after they've gotten comfortable stamping, painting, welding, fitting, etc Aluminum. If they use steel body panels they will have to learn all that stuff again. I realize that Elon creates a reality distortion field around himself but building a car is harder than software or electronic gadgets and the fact of the matter is that Tesla consistently wildly over-promises on timelines.

Again, I'm not a hater. You can see from my .sig I'm a big fan. But I speak from experience and I want to try and set expectations to hopefully minimize some people's disappointment when announced dates come and go.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Did someone at Tesla say that they put Model X on the back burner? It doesn't make sense. What was the design team doing during this time? Sitting around? It would make more sense to finish Model X (even if they delayed production) and then move the design team on to Model 3. I think you're giving Tesla too much credit. I think Model X has simply taken this long.

No one at Tesla has told me anything, but from my point of view, it seems obvious that that's what happened. Tesla won't admit it so as to not provoke the long time Model X reservation holders, but I just don't think Tesla has had the necessary engineering resources to do everything at once, and the Model X with a deadline far into the future ended up quite low on the to do list. There's been plenty for the design team to work on over the last few years (let me try to do it somewhat chronologically):

- By Teslas account, an average of 20 hardware improvements on the Model S every week
- P85+ (the plus hadn't launched at the Model X reveal)
- Two (three?) different versions of the Supercharger
- Toyota RAV4 EV
- Mercedes B class Electric Drive
- Battery swapping
- Tank mode
- Premium rear seats
- CHAdeMO Adapter, both for the Tesla plug and Type 2 (also spent some time on the back burner)
- Premium center console (also spent some time on the back burner)
- Roadster 3.0
- All new high efficiency motor
- Dual Motor AWD
- Next gen Model S seats
- Autopilot
- PowerWall and PowerPack
- 70 kWh battery pack
- Ludicrous mode
- 90 kWh battery pack

Did I forget anything?

I can't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head but I think battery prices are dropping ~2%/year. They hope to improve on that w/ the gigafactory but there's nothing special about the gigafactory that will drive costs down on day 1. Tesla has never made a battery and so are completely reliant on their partners for battery production expertise. On day 1 the gigafactory is going to be a carbon copy of the Panasonic production line which, aside from shipping savings, will be the same cost/kWh as it is today albeit at a higher volume. It will take time to drive those costs down. If Panasonic already had a way to do that they'd have done it on their own lines. I think it's going to be serious of small steps over time vs a few big steps.

Changing the format from 18650 to ~20700 will result in savings from day one. The production cost is to a degree tied to the number of cells, so with bigger cells using the same equipment, each cell will become cheaper per kWh. And with fewer cells per battery pack, assembly will be simplified.

Everyone keeps talking about how Model 3 ramp-up will be faster when the evidence simply doesn't support that. If anything Tesla's ramp-ups are getting slower with each successive model. Further, they are talking about using different materials in Model 3 which will involve another learning curve after they've gotten comfortable stamping, painting, welding, fitting, etc Aluminum. If they use steel body panels they will have to learn all that stuff again. I realize that Elon creates a reality distortion field around himself but building a car is harder than software or electronic gadgets and the fact of the matter is that Tesla consistently wildly over-promises on timelines.

Tesla produced about 10k Model S in the first year of production. How many Model X will be produced before the end of September 2016? 30k?

 

[wdolson]

This is just speculation on my part. They probably allocated more engineers to the Model 3 than the Model X initially because the Model X was supposed to share quite a bit with the Model S, but then it turned out that quite a bit of the Model X had to be redesigned and they hired new engineers to bulk out the Model X team. The Model X team was understaffed for the job for some time, then they got enough staff, but had to train them, which took more time.

Elon has indicated the falcon wing doors were an engineering nightmare. Most of the rest of the car was probably ready to go a year ago, but problems with the doors was holding up the show. If that was the case, they were probably able to transfer some of the engineers from the Model X program to other projects over the last year leaving the production team and falcon wing door team on the job.

 

[malcolm]

Given that other manufacturers are trying hard to create a "Tesla killer" - or more accurately - a "Model S killer" (since they seem to miss the significance of the Gigafactory and the in-house Supercharger network) I don't believe that Elon, Franz or JB are interested in protecting the S as some sort of flagship. EV technology is far from plateauing which would allow the creation of different strata of vehicles, each in their own performance bracket.
Many Tesla owners have already experienced a "Model S killer" in the form of the next Model S, + to D to 90 to L.
Will Model 3 evolve beyond the capabilities of the present day Model S? Will the S be able to keep the lead? Who knows. Should it?
But based on the evidence of the continual upgrading of the S, I think that Tesla are determined that the next Tesla killer will always be made by Tesla.

 

[jscholl]

I was watching a talk from JB Straubel today and I noticed a graph showing vehicle production and battery consumption. The point of the graph is to show that the world doesn't have enough Li-ion supply, but I noticed that it also gives some rather specific numbers — in 2020 Tesla believes they'll be making 500,000 vehicles/year, which lines up with 35 GWh/year of storage demand. (This lines up with the 2020 cell production of the Gigafactory, and I have no idea what the significance of that is.) Assuming this number is accurate, doesn't include Tesla Energy, and is dominated by Model 3, the average Model 3 will have about a 70 kWh battery pack. I don't think that's gonna be the base, but I do think it makes it unlikely that the base Model 3 will have a 45 kWh battery. I feel like 50-60 kWh is more likely, with an available upgrade to maybe 60-75 kWh and maybe something beyond that.

 

[Model 3]

Assuming this number is accurate, doesn't include Tesla Energy, and is dominated by Model 3, the average Model 3 will have about a 70 kWh battery pack. I don't think that's gonna be the base, but I do think it makes it unlikely that the base Model 3 will have a 45 kWh battery. I feel like 50-60 kWh is more likely, with an available upgrade to maybe 60-75 kWh and maybe something beyond that.

Assuming this number is accurate, doesn't include Tesla Energy, and that S/X have a annual production of 75k each, and have an average battery of 85kWh, that consumes 12.75GWh of this 35GWh. The rest, 22.25GWh is for the remaining 350k Gen-III cars (Model 3 and possible Model Y). That is an average of ~63.5kWh for the Gen-III cars.

... but this does include some uncertain assumptions, and may use some obsolete and inaccurate numbers, so take everything with a huge grain of (lithium-)salt


Edit:
Btw: My guess is still that the base will have 55kWh, and the upgrade maybe 70kWh....

 

[strider]

No one at Tesla has told me anything, but from my point of view, it seems obvious that that's what happened. Tesla won't admit it so as to not provoke the long time Model X reservation holders, but I just don't think Tesla has had the necessary engineering resources to do everything at once, and the Model X with a deadline far into the future ended up quite low on the to do list. There's been plenty for the design team to work on over the last few years (let me try to do it somewhat chronologically):

Well, as a Roadster owner I take exception to your inclusion of Roadster 3.0 as they haven't delivered anything on that yet (the battery has been announced but none have been done AFAIK) and there are now no plans to offer anything beyond the battery upgrade. But I agree with your list and thank you for providing it. It really just reinforces my point. To your list now add continuous improvements/updates to Model X and when you combine that with the "new materials" aspect of Model 3 and what that means for the production team I just don't see Model 3 happening on Elon's timelines. Of course they may surprise us but the fact of the matter is that they've been late on essentially everything. You have to take a pretty big leap of faith that they'll somehow break this streak with Model 3.

Tesla produced about 10k Model S in the first year of production. How many Model X will be produced before the end of September 2016? 30k?

Sure, but back to my original comment on the delay for base Model 3's, there will be way more higher-end Model 3 reservations. So even though Tesla will produce more Model 3's in its first year than they made Model S's in its first year or Model X's in its first year, I believe the much higher Model 3 reservation rates will offset the increased production and still result in a 1-year delay from first shipments to base models. There are a bunch of other variables too like geography and how exactly they choose to batch production that could make that time shorter or longer for some people. Further, Tesla will be under increased pressure to improve their cash burn so it will make financial sense to bias production to higher end cars as they have better margins. IMO they will do this as long as possible until the whining about out of order deliveries gets too loud for them to ignore or there's some regulatory reason for delivering cheaper cars sooner.

Like everyone else I want my Model 3 as soon as possible but again, I'm just trying to keep people's expectations in check based on my last 5 years of experience w/ Tesla.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Well, as a Roadster owner I take exception to your inclusion of Roadster 3.0 as they haven't delivered anything on that yet (the battery has been announced but none have been done AFAIK) and there are now no plans to offer anything beyond the battery upgrade.

In all probability all the design work is pretty much done.

But I agree with your list and thank you for providing it. It really just reinforces my point. To your list now add continuous improvements/updates to Model X and when you combine that with the "new materials" aspect of Model 3 and what that means for the production team I just don't see Model 3 happening on Elon's timelines.

What new materials? The Model 3 will be a mix of steel and aluminium, just like the Model S and X. And Tesla has been continually increasing their engineering team. Right now they have 1650 jobs available, and in the last 14 months they got 1.5 million applications. I think that at this point, Tesla is capable of handling 1-2 major projects as well as continually improving their existing products. The Model X design work is mostly done, so what are they doing? Sitting around doing nothing? I'm sure they have mostly moved on to the Model 3 by now.

Of course they may surprise us but the fact of the matter is that they've been late on essentially everything. You have to take a pretty big leap of faith that they'll somehow break this streak with Model 3.

I wouldn't call my confidence "faith". In my experience, motivation + ability = success.

With the Model X, the motivation just wasn't there, Tesla didn't need the Model X to increase demand - demand for the Model S was already overwhelming. Without the Model 3, however, there's no way Tesla can produce 500,000 cars/year in 2020. And without the cars, the Gigafactory is moot. I would think demand would become an issue sometime in 2017 with only the Model S and X. *Maybe* 2018, if the Model X and Tesla Energy do really well. That is also the rough time period Tesla will really be motiviated to start selling the Model 3 in large numbers - ideally 2017, worst case 2018.

To reach this milestone, I am confident Tesla is willing to put every other project on the backburner while they get the Model 3 out the door. It's just that important. And with potentially every engineer at Tesla Motors working on the Model 3, I would be exceedingly surprised if they fail.

Sure, but back to my original comment on the delay for base Model 3's, there will be way more higher-end Model 3 reservations. So even though Tesla will produce more Model 3's in its first year than they made Model S's in its first year or Model X's in its first year, I believe the much higher Model 3 reservation rates will offset the increased production and still result in a 1-year delay from first shipments to base models. There are a bunch of other variables too like geography and how exactly they choose to batch production that could make that time shorter or longer for some people. Further, Tesla will be under increased pressure to improve their cash burn so it will make financial sense to bias production to higher end cars as they have better margins. IMO they will do this as long as possible until the whining about out of order deliveries gets too loud for them to ignore or there's some regulatory reason for delivering cheaper cars sooner.

If we look at the Model X, there's probably only about 20k firm reservations. That means every reservation holder will get their cars before the end of summer 2016. That's not a bad ramp.

I know Tesla is saying they won't ship the 70D until later in the year, but I think this is mostly about trying to force people to upgrade. Putting in a 70 kWh battery instead of a 90 kWh battery is easy, so Tesla will most likely do it once the buffer of reservations starts running low. Of course, if the demand for the 90 kWh pack is sufficiently high, maybe Tesla will end up being right. Tesla has downplayed the lesser models before. For instance, the 85D acceleration was better than advertized, because they wanted people to go for the P85D.

 

[strider]

In all probability all the design work is pretty much done.

We'll have to agree to disagree there. If the design work was done they'd be able to announce what the upgrades are, show pictures, and give basic specs (ie range improvements for the new bearings, aero package, etc.). I do not think the design work is done on anything except the battery and for the 1.5's I think they're still doing design/engineering work on it.

What new materials? The Model 3 will be a mix of steel and aluminium, just like the Model S and X. And Tesla has been continually increasing their engineering team.

This statement is misleading. The Model S and X are nearly all aluminum. The only steel parts are the beams for crash protection. Tesla has never stamped a steel body panel, made a steel subframe, painted steel, welded steel, etc, etc. You don't just buy a new steel stamping press and switch it on and have it work. Same for paint prep, welding robots, etc.

I wouldn't call my confidence "faith". In my experience, motivation + ability = success.

I agree, but I would question the ability part of that equation.

With the Model X, the motivation just wasn't there, Tesla didn't need the Model X to increase demand - demand for the Model S was already overwhelming. Without the Model 3, however, there's no way Tesla can produce 500,000 cars/year in 2020. And without the cars, the Gigafactory is moot. I would think demand would become an issue sometime in 2017 with only the Model S and X. *Maybe* 2018, if the Model X and Tesla Energy do really well. That is also the rough time period Tesla will really be motiviated to start selling the Model 3 in large numbers - ideally 2017, worst case 2018.

To reach this milestone, I am confident Tesla is willing to put every other project on the backburner while they get the Model 3 out the door. It's just that important. And with potentially every engineer at Tesla Motors working on the Model 3, I would be exceedingly surprised if they fail.

I would think the motivation for Model X was there for the exact purpose of freeing up resources for Model 3. I believe the Model X delays are impacting Model 3.

Finally, I'm not saying Tesla is going to "fail." Model S and X were late but we love them. They are great cars and now 3 years later the waiting for Model S is a distant memory. So my assertion that Model 3 will be late and that higher-end models will be prioritized is not a pronouncement of failure. It's just what I believe will happen. It will cause a massive amount of drama on this board until they catch up and then almost no one will care. Seriously, go back and read the early pages of the Model S delivery thread - it's hilarious how much we were all freaking out. I'm guessing it's similar on the Model X threads these days.

We can go back and forth about this for the next couple years as none of us really knows, not even Elon. My advice is to not bet on getting a car in 2017, especially if you want a base model (I think even 2018 is a stretch for a base model). So if you're leasing today and it expires in 2017 or early 2018 make sure you have an alternative means of driving to cover the gap. Otherwise, the cars will get here when they get here. Nothing we do or say on this board will change the date you get the key. Relax and go do something outside with other real people.

 

[Yggdrasill]

This statement is misleading. The Model S and X are nearly all aluminum. The only steel parts are the beams for crash protection. Tesla has never stamped a steel body panel, made a steel subframe, painted steel, welded steel, etc, etc. You don't just buy a new steel stamping press and switch it on and have it work. Same for paint prep, welding robots, etc.

Of course, if Tesla uses more steel, there will be new stuff to learn. But it's not as if steel is some alien material recently obtained from visiting martians. Everyone with an automotove background at Tesla has worked with steel, and the big stamping presses they have were used for stamping steel before Tesla bought NUMMI. If Tesla decides to use more steel in the Model 3, they already have a good basis to work from.

I would think the motivation for Model X was there for the exact purpose of freeing up resources for Model 3. I believe the Model X delays are impacting Model 3.

I don't. The Model 3 is more important than the Model X.

Finally, I'm not saying Tesla is going to "fail." Model S and X were late but we love them. They are great cars and now 3 years later the waiting for Model S is a distant memory. So my assertion that Model 3 will be late and that higher-end models will be prioritized is not a pronouncement of failure. It's just what I believe will happen. It will cause a massive amount of drama on this board until they catch up and then almost no one will care. Seriously, go back and read the early pages of the Model S delivery thread - it's hilarious how much we were all freaking out. I'm guessing it's similar on the Model X threads these days.

I didn't mean that Tesla would fail, period, I meant that Tesla would fail to meet the deadlines. And I remember the Model S launch vividly. There was all sorts of drama, then everyone got their cars, and the forums went eerily quiet. Suddenly everyone were spending all their time in their cars.

We can go back and forth about this for the next couple years as none of us really knows, not even Elon. My advice is to not bet on getting a car in 2017, especially if you want a base model (I think even 2018 is a stretch for a base model). So if you're leasing today and it expires in 2017 or early 2018 make sure you have an alternative means of driving to cover the gap. Otherwise, the cars will get here when they get here. Nothing we do or say on this board will change the date you get the key. Relax and go do something outside with other real people.

I would expect the base Model 3 to be available the first half of 2018, but it could slip to as late as early 2019, depending on demand for high-spec Model 3. I wouldn't expect a base Model 3 in 2017. If deliveries start in Q3/Q4 2017, it will take at least half a year to clear out signature reservations and high spec orders.

 

[vinnie97]

So...2017 is just a pipedream for base model. Meanwhile, at least Hyundai and GM (among others I'm either forgetting or are unbeknownst to me) should be well on their way. I don't know if I can handle the wait (though my pocketbook welcomes it).

 

[Lex]

I wouldn't be surprised if the higher end Model 3 out performs the lower end Model Ss.

I actually expect this, as it will be smaller and (hopefully) lighter.

But will the Performance model(s) be first ?

... I don't believe that Elon, Franz or JB are interested in protecting the S as some sort of flagship.

Just seeing the new stuff introduced in the Model X (and only in the X) convinced me of this. I think the Model 3 is going to be their best car, not an "economy car". They simply cannot resist, it seems

For me it will be extremely interesting to see how close Tesla follows the "high-end performance first" philosophy with the Model 3, considering it is specifically being designed for volume sales.

 

[Maaz]

The model 3 will not have more performance than a model s. unless the battery is the same size as the model s, it will be performance limited depending on how small the battery is.

 

[coco81]

A smaller battery pack will have less output power than a larger one, but if you consider a lighter car... you need less power to equal the performance. I don't see why a 4000Lb/1800Kg performance model 3 can't accelerate as fast as a 4900LB/22500KG performance model S P85D. 20% less battery, 20% less output power, 20% less weight... same performance. And If tesla adds better battery technology maybe the power output will be even better.

 

[nwdiver]

A smaller battery pack will have less output power than a larger one, but if you consider a lighter car... you need less power to equal the performance. I don't see why a 4000Lb/1800Kg performance model 3 can't accelerate as fast as a 4900LB/22500KG performance model S P85D. 20% less battery, 20% less output power, 20% less weight... same performance. And If tesla adds better battery technology maybe the power output will be even better.

It's not that simple... the equation for kinetic energy is 0.5mv^2; the energy that goes into acceleration is 4x the energy you need that's dependent on mass. So a M3 that's 20% lighter and 20% less powerful would not be as quick.

 

[wdolson]

It's not that simple... the equation for kinetic energy is 0.5mv^2; the energy that goes into acceleration is 4x the energy you need that's dependent on mass. So a M3 that's 20% lighter and 20% less powerful would not be as quick.

In addition the various losses and such aren't linear either. Though a car that is 20% lighter with 20% less power will probably see less than a 20% decline in performance, all other things being equal.

The point I made that started this line of discussion was that the performance version of the Model 3 will probably out perform the base model of the Model S. Not that the top end Model 3 will out perform a Model S P90DL. Tesla may produce a version of the Model 3 that out performs the Model S P90DL, but it will likely have a larger power to weight ratio than the P90DL if they do.

 

[Ben W]

It's not that simple... the equation for kinetic energy is 0.5mv^2; the energy that goes into acceleration is 4x the energy you need that's dependent on mass. So a M3 that's 20% lighter and 20% less powerful would not be as quick.

Careful with that math, sir... Halve the mass, and you halve the required energy for a given acceleration. From the KE = 0.5mv^2 equation alone, a M3 that's 20% lighter and 20% less powerful will accelerate at precisely the same rate from 0-60.

Thought experiment: glue two P85 Model S's to each other, side by side. This creates a new "car" with double the mass, double the horsepower. The acceleration stays exactly the same. (But on the other hand... slicing a P85 in half will certainly diminish its acceleration, and is not recommended.)

I fully expect that Tesla will optimize the base-model powertrain for efficiency instead of acceleration, so they can get away with the smallest battery. I would expect a 0-60 time in the 6-second range for the base model, with say 200hp, 50kWh battery pack. AWD is a mixed bag; you gain a little bit of range, but add a lot of cost and weight and complexity. So I'm guessing the $35k version will be RWD, with a ~$4k upgrade for AWD. Time will tell!

 

[pmadflyer]

What does 35k get me?

A brand new car!

Sorry, that's just what I think whenever I read this thread.