What are the chances of Autopilot 3.0?

[Bladerskb]

it's all about the contrast and I just pointed to the very lidar they are using and it cannot see 2mm vertical resolution unless the car is right on top of it.

"It is noted that this algorithm works best on roads with dark asphalt with highly contrasting lane markings raised approximately 2mm above the road's surface, typical to those lane markings found in Germany. The worst road surface for this algorithm is concrete"

Are you blind?

radar can

Radar pales in comparison to cameras, lidar as have been proven many times in this thread[/QUOTE]

 

[JeffK]

"It is noted that this algorithm works best on roads with dark asphalt with highly contrasting lane markings raised approximately 2mm above the road's surface, typical to those lane markings found in Germany. The worst road surface for this algorithm is concrete"
Are you blind?
Radar pales in comparison to cameras, lidar as have been proven many times in this thread

Visit the velodyne website and check it out yourself, please by all means don't take my word for it. Look at the vertical resolution. It cannot detect 2mm at distances needed when moving at speed. It's basic trig. Above all else their algorithm relies on reflectivity which is why it doesn't work as well when the road color is lighter.

We just established that radar can see through water when lidar cannot. I wouldn't say it pales in comparison. It's for a different yet necessary task.

 

[JeffK]

The end-result is the same: lidar can see lane markings.

Yes, exactly... I was just correcting Bladerskb because he loves to be corrected so much haha

 

[J1mbo]

I don't think you are understanding. Its not that radar won't see it.
Its that:

1) Radar can't differentiate them.
2) Manufacturer ignores all radar readings without delta, which is the reason why you see the warnings that cruise control "will not see stationary objects"

1. It would detect two objects. Assuming the bike is physically closer to the car than the wall, the radar return from the bike would take less time than the return from the wall. The nature of the return would also vary, assuming a brick wall and metal bike.
2. Stationary = objects that have no delta. If you are approaching a stationary object, it has a delta.

You might find this worth reading.

Also, this collaboration between Bosch & Tom Tom to generate high resolution road maps using radar data is also interesting, as Tesla is partnered with both suppliers.

 

[EVie'sDad]

Do you think something like AP 3.0 hardware would come out in the next 2-3 years? (based on timeline of AP1 and AP2.)

My thinking is..maybe? I mean I feel probably not for another 5-7 years if anything. If you release a 3.0 in the next 2 years then you would screw over I feel a bunch of Model 3 owners who haven't even gotten their car yet and are still in line.

Is there really any point for a 3.0 if the car is fully autonomous with 2.0? I mean I suppose to add even further refinement to the system. What would you add in a 3.0 release to make it substantially better than 2.0 Full Autonomy?

My money is on AP3 being around the corner, if not by the end of the year. Each release has proven better than it's predecessor, but upgrades in hardware and other tech must be made to enhance the capabilities of future models to drive above level 2 autonomy. I predict AP3 by mid 2018 and AP4 within another year and a half of that. It is inevitable, and even though I know this is going to happen, I still love and cherish my AP1. It is an amazing achievement, and is helping to herald in a new era of autonomous driving. Give it time, but enjoy what we have now, for all your experiences will help to shape those future improvements. It is going to be a fun ride!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I guess one factor is how much would the software delays cause any hardware changes tp be delayed.

Unlike some thinķ, Tesla does plan and delay hardware changes... to suit logistics and sales...

 

[houstonian]

How does the group define AP 3.0?

For example, if Tesla replaced the processing unit under the dash but did nothing else would that be 3.0? Or would it be 2.5?

What if Tesla included a rain sensor in the model 3 and new S/Xs? AP 2.1?

Or what if they were to do both? AP 2.6?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

How does the group define AP 3.0?

For example, if Tesla replaced the processing unit under the dash but did nothing else would that be 3.0? Or would it be 2.5?

What if Tesla included a rain sensor in the model 3 and new S/Xs? AP 2.1?

Or what if they were to do both? AP 2.6?

I guess rain sensor I would consider separate (as I would, say, an augmented reality HUD if it didn't include any new drive sensing), but I would consider AP3 anything that Tesla either called hardware 3 or a suite that had more sensors or other non-retrofittable self-driving hardware.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

By the way, here's my theory on what might have happened with HUD and AP2...

My pet theory is that around Model 3 unveil, Elon was still thinking they could make AP2 work with MobilEye chip on board as a transitional aid (the EAP board still has an empty spot where MobilEye would have fit). That would have allowed them to quickly ship an AR HUD that would have shown identified objects overlaid on the HUD. As, of course, they could not show a Model 3 feature that Model S/X would not start shipping at the same time at latest...

Now that they had to implement everything themselves, and as EAP still shows the identification is not up to scratch yet, keeping that AR HUD unreleased made sense until AP2 matured.

So, by the time it came to AP2 announcement, Elon relabelled it the "unveil part 2" and unveiled the thing without the spaceship controls, because by then it was known MobilEye would not be on board and Tesla was facing many months of implementation work before suitable object identification etc. would be available. AP2 does not even today show objects on the instrument cluster as well as AP1 does, so driving an AR HUD would probably be impossible with it.

Just speculation of course, but would fit the HUD theory.

 

[Bebop]

How does the group define AP 3.0?

For example, if Tesla replaced the processing unit under the dash but did nothing else would that be 3.0? Or would it be 2.5?

What if Tesla included a rain sensor in the model 3 and new S/Xs? AP 2.1?

Or what if they were to do both? AP 2.6?

I would imagine 3.0 has more sensors and cameras. Like the jump from 1 to 2.

I heard that if you have a car with AP2.0 you will be able to do a computer hardware upgrades as time passes. Can anyone confirm this?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I heard that if you have a car with AP2.0 you will be able to do a computer hardware upgrades as time passes. Can anyone confirm this?

Tesla has said that you can and the hardware is easy enough to swap behind the glove compartment, so likely it is possible. Whether or not it happens is another question. Two things point to it possibly happening: Model 3 already seems to have HW 2.5 - and also FSD has been speculated to need a computer upgrade that might already be factored into the "pre-order" price...

 

[Bebop]

Tesla has said that you can and the hardware is easy enough to swap behind the glove compartment, so likely it is possible. Whether or not it happens is another question. Two things point to it possibly happening: Model 3 already seems to have HW 2.5 - and also FSD has been speculated to need a computer upgrade that might already be factored into the "pre-order" price...

So is 2.5 simply a more powerful computer hardware?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

So is 2.5 simply a more powerful computer hardware?

We don't know. Some discussion here:

AP2.0 Cameras: Capabilities and Limitations?

 

[Bladerskb]

1. It would detect two objects. Assuming the bike is physically closer to the car than the wall, the radar return from the bike would take less time than the return from the wall. The nature of the return would also vary, assuming a brick wall and metal bike.
2. Stationary = objects that have no delta. If you are approaching a stationary object, it has a delta.

You might find this worth reading.

Also, this collaboration between Bosch & Tom Tom to generate high resolution road maps using radar data is also interesting, as Tesla is partnered with both suppliers.

Incorrect.

First of all Lidar will be used in the radar map making process as ground truth.

Second of all, It will not detect two objects, it returns only single values, now for non stationary objects its easier to say this is a singular object and this is another separate object because they have different velocity. (you see this in the image, pink lines)

But this is industry fact, RADAR CANNOT CLASSIFY OBJECTS!
Plain and simple. how is it that you ppl don't understand? it won't know the difference between a stationary wall, bike, tree, car and street pole.


Here is radar projected onto an image.

 

[JeffK]

First of all Lidar will be used in the radar map making process as ground truth.

This is not true in the case of Tesla, LiDAR was used for initial validation, but there's no evidence they will use it for ground truthing the map making process across the globe.

Typically as in your photo people combine radar and vision data for multi object tracking and classification. (LiDAR not needed)

 

[Bladerskb]

This is not true in the case of Tesla, LiDAR was used for initial validation, but there's no evidence they will use it for ground truthing the map making process across the globe.

Typically as in your photo people combine radar and vision data for multi object tracking and classification. (LiDAR not needed)

Stop butting into conversations that doesn't involve you. i already mentioned in other thread that you can use camera/lidar vice versa.
If you weren't so emotional when something is mentioned threatening tesla, maybe you would be more inquisitive.

First of all Tesla isn't making a radar map but a blacklist which uses GPS only for ground truth, Thats as of AP1

 

[JeffK]

First of all Tesla isn't making a radar map but a blacklist which uses GPS only for ground truth, Thats as of AP1

I have to interject when someone spouts a falsehood... it's like OCD. I'm cRaZy like that

Tesla has invested heavily in HD mapping both internally and utilizing tools from MapBox and Valhalla

 

[Bladerskb]

I have to interject when someone spouts a falsehood... it's like OCD. I'm cRaZy like that

Tesla has invested heavily in HD mapping both internally and utilizing tools from MapBox and Valhalla

An unlearned person thinks truth is a falsehood. whats new?

Lastly and i repeat, just as the 2 billions miles ap1 fleet data nonsense which i single-handily debunked.
The radar mapping is another nonsense from the Tesla hopeful.

There is no radar map, as of AP1 only gps radar blacklisting existed for overhead signs, etc.

 

[JeffK]

An unlearned person thinks truth is a falsehood. whats new?

Lastly and i repeat, just as the 2 billions miles ap1 fleet data nonsense which i single-handily debunked.
The radar mapping is another nonsense from the Tesla hopeful.

There is no radar map, as of AP1 only gps radar blacklisting existed for overhead signs, etc.

Not speaking of AP 1 feet data We are currently on AP2 discussing a potential AP3.

The HD mapping uses the vision system in combination with everything else. It's not a pure radar map, that would be a ridiculous idea with the current radar setup. I haven't seen anyone else on this thread suggest it besides you. The article linked to was suggesting adding radar signatures to work with existing maps.

Radar signatures used for road mapping has shown to work in a few papers over the last few years.

 

[JeffK]

Not speaking of AP 1 feet data We are currently on AP2 discussing a potential AP3.

The HD mapping uses the vision system in combination with everything else. It's not a pure radar map, that would be a ridiculous idea with the current radar setup. I haven't seen anyone else on this thread suggest it besides you. The article linked to was suggesting adding radar signatures to work with existing maps.

Radar signatures used for road mapping has shown to work in a few papers over the last few years.

ha I mispelled fleet and I can't edit it... apparently there's data on people's feet.