TSLA Technical Analysis

[Mike Da Gee]

One major factor which such historical comparisons does not take into account is rate of revenue and earnings growth. Has this remained constant over such a long period of time? People like Cathy Wood argue (rightly or wrongly) that the pace of technology development and transformative innovation has increased compared to the past. Adding some element of forward earnings expectations and growth might add more context and validity.

Good points. I personally believe like Ms. Wood and many others that we are in a major transformative shift driven by technology. The "end of oil" may make the Middle East irrelevant in the list of geopolitical issues. It will also mean that most countries don't need to worry about exporting so much in order to get the energy resources they need.

The dot-com bubble spawned a lot of losers but also a lot of winners. How'd that go for the individual investor? If you bought AMZN at its height in 2000 it was $100/share. Less than 2 years later it was around $5/share. AMZN is a winner, but not all those who saw the future in AMZN benefited.

This past few decades seem to me like a major Kondratieff cycle change, similar to the 1900s when electricity, telephone, autos, oil, radio replaced steam, telegraph, horses and coal. The Dow in 1900 was mostly railroad stocks. But look at what else happened during those great years of transformation of urban and rural society. WW-I, the Great Depression, WW-II, the post war boom.

We may not care that Google dominates search engines, but I bet China and the rest of the world care. Tesla has a gigantic lead in EV tech, manufacturing process, and it's charging infrastructure. All of these advantages will be copied and challenged. Ultimately we will see competition in everything driving down costs and earnings. Reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" it is clearly talking about a different age when high tech for most people was an automatic washing machine. But the book is still relevant because human nature, fear and greed, are universal constants.

"The more things change, the more they remain the same".

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Where do we go from here? Fibonacci retracement? 650, 700, 750? QQQ below 330 on 1/2 the volume of last month’s & YTD low. TSLA also below YTD low and 200d SMA, also on low volume. This tells me that there are few buyers and traders expect it to get worse. Paging anyone?

 

[Mike Da Gee]

Don't take this too seriously, but I have been thinking we get a 30% SPY drop like 3/2020. At that time TSLA fell to 36% of it's peak intraday high of February 4th. 36% of it's 2021 high of 1200 would take it to 433. If it reaches that point, a lot of us will back up the Cybertruck and bring our biggest shovel.

On the one hand, it's a volatile stock, and a lot of people hear all the talk from GM, Ford, and VW, and don't know how well Tesla is positioned so will think "the big boys are coming!" (tm). On the other hand, it is in so many mutual funds and ETFs it may be losing some of its volatility.

Just random neurons firing off. I'm just sitting tight on some cash waiting for a sign.

 

[Mike Da Gee]

One of the TA YouTube channels I follow is Ciovacco Capital with a new video every Friday. One of their charts from this Friday, 2/25/20, is shown below.
It's the (S&P 500) / (long term treasury fund). Yellow lines start at 2000 and 2008. Pre-e-e-t-t-y scary, IMHO.

Based on what happened at the previous high, it could be a rough ride down to S&P-500 = 3200 (or below?)

Another chart he presented lead me to look up the NASDAQ-100 P/E and P/S (price to sales) ratios from MacroTrends dot net. Not as scary as the last one, but clearly a bit on the high side for both.

 

[Singuy]

Nasdaq PE vs rates is actually not very high at all historically speaking.

 

[Curt Renz]

This week TSLA has kept above its 200-day moving average which has been-long term support except for a brief but sharp dip below last week. The next target is the regaining of its 50-day moving average. Doing so should be quite bullish.

BTW, within the hour I pulled my brand new Model 3 into my month-old home's garage. Both were fullly paid by shaving off a small about of TSLA profits.

 

[Curt Renz]

This week TSLA has kept above its 200-day moving average which has been-long term support except for a brief but sharp dip below last week. The next target is the regaining of its 50-day moving average. Doing so should be quite bullish.

Despite the drop today, TSLA closed just above its supportive 200-day SMA (simple moving average).

 

[dmunjal]

Despite the drop today, TSLA closed just above its supportive 200-day SMA (simple moving average).

Unfortunately, with the news on an attack on a Ukrainian nuclear facility, the 200 SMA will likely not hold tomorrow.

 

[dmunjal]

Unfortunately, with the news on an attack on a Ukrainian nuclear facility, the 200 SMA will likely not hold tomorrow.

TSLA doing better than most tech stocks today. Big fight over the 200 SMA.

 

[bxr140]

I drew the below trendline on the 16th. Good news is that its getting a lot of action, which generally strengthens a trendline. It doesn't start at a high though, which generally reduces the TL strength.

Big picture, I think the big picture is going to overwhelm technical indicators. While obviously that is of course always the case, the probability of Big Picture things happening is way higher right now. A few years ago there was maybe the occasional threat of Trump tweetering about his frenemy in NK that would result in a short term market reaction. Today...its more like the threat of Vlad bombing the sarcophagus at Chernobyl or something.

One thing that I think would be really useful is if the S&P can climb back on top of 200MA. We're also aiming for a death cross here maybe mid-march or so, so that's definitely something to keep in mind with long entries in the next few weeks.

 

[bballshinobi]

TSLA doing better than most tech stocks today. Big fight over the 200 SMA.

I think it's just the MMs trying to keep the stock around $850 for max pain today. They will probably take us to the woodshed on Monday.

 

[Curt Renz]

On Thursday, TSLA closed above its 200-day SMA (simple moving average). On Friday, TSLA closed above its 50-Day SMA, and above the resistance during the early days of March at $890. During the four days of this current run-up, TSLA kept closing near each day’s high. All of this bodes well technically

 

[Curt Renz]

Today from Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler:

• TSLA—Shares have reversed a declining price channel.
• Back above the 10-/30-week WMAs.
• RS is confirming the reversal and impressive TechniGrade ranking.
• Add to positions, the next levels of resistance set up near $1,200 and $1,230 (‘21 highs).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Darn, in my opinion we just had a technical failure.

We're in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The recent run-up looked like it had a shot at ending that pattern but it fell short of the January high. I don't think we're going to see an additional lower low but I think a technical purist would say that's the most likely outcome over the next 2-3 months.

 

[MABMAB]

700 to 1100 in a short period of time? Violent quick retractions = normal.
Patience!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

We just filled a gap at $1040.70 between 3/23-3/28. Isn’t that predictable from TA?

 

[AquaY]

Darn, in my opinion we just had a technical failure.

We're in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The recent run-up looked like it had a shot at ending that pattern but it fell short of the January high. I don't think we're going to see an additional lower low but I think a technical purist would say that's the most likely outcome over the next 2-3 months.

Give it a little time.
We had a big run up. Retracing is normal. We were in a berish trend and then broke out of it. Whether that break out was a false one or not should take a few days to really see

 

[MABMAB]

I get that lots of people watch gaps, understand some psychological importance of them, but put no weight on such things in a trading range, more so on a breakout to new highs.

 

[bxr140]

Darn, in my opinion we just had a technical failure.

FWIW the past few weeks has been very by the books.

--First, there was the mid-jan to mid-march trendline (lower purple line) that ~stabilized with 20MA (yellow). While that isn't in itself a classic trendline (which starts as a peak or a bottom) over time it shaped up very nicely with multiple touches--and more than anything, the number of touches defines the strength of a trendline. So the obvious entry was breaking out of both of them, or ~850.

--First exit would have been in the ~900-925 range, where the price was consolidating before the big late feb drop and 50MA may have offered some resistance. You can also see the first day above 50MA tried to run up and got pulled back...nobody would be faulted for exiting there. $75 profit, give or take.

--The second exit would have been in the low 1000's range, where there's been some significant touch points and general price volume since Nov. That's also where this last run up stalled out into a pennant. Exiting on the first day above 1000 with the big upper wick would have been sensible too...$150 profit.

--For those still holding, the third exit would have been a break down out of the pennant...certainly by 975.

--A dicey entry would have been on the gap out of the pennant, though you gotta be careful with Novice Gaps. On the upside, 50MA was turning away from 200MA at that point, avoiding the Death Cross.

--The next exit--after the pennant breakout--would have been the high at ~1115. Solid $250+ profit--real hard to argue with that in less than 2 weeks and well justified considering the following consolidation into the Flag.

--The flag from last week was also bullish, but with such a run up into it, it would be hard to really imagine a lot more green...this Monday was a nice surprise, but Tuesday's confirmation of the downtrend line (the top purple line) was a flashing "only idiot's don't take profit at this point" exit signal.

We just filled a gap at $1040.70 between 3/23-3/28. Isn’t that predictable from TA?

Yeah that's a classic entry indicator, though given the mega run-up in the past few weeks its kinda hard to justify trading on it...for me at least. Maybe there's a day trade play in there somewhere...

 

[deshkart]

FWIW the past few weeks has been very by the books.

--First, there was the mid-jan to mid-march trendline (lower purple line) that ~stabilized with 20MA (yellow). While that isn't in itself a classic trendline (which starts as a peak or a bottom) over time it shaped up very nicely with multiple touches--and more than anything, the number of touches defines the strength of a trendline. So the obvious entry was breaking out of both of them, or ~850.

--First exit would have been in the ~900-925 range, where the price was consolidating before the big late feb drop and 50MA may have offered some resistance. You can also see the first day above 50MA tried to run up and got pulled back...nobody would be faulted for exiting there. $75 profit, give or take.

--The second exit would have been in the low 1000's range, where there's been some significant touch points and general price volume since Nov. That's also where this last run up stalled out into a pennant. Exiting on the first day above 1000 with the big upper wick would have been sensible too...$150 profit.

--For those still holding, the third exit would have been a break down out of the pennant...certainly by 975.

--A dicey entry would have been on the gap out of the pennant, though you gotta be careful with Novice Gaps. On the upside, 50MA was turning away from 200MA at that point, avoiding the Death Cross.

--The next exit--after the pennant breakout--would have been the high at ~1115. Solid $250+ profit--real hard to argue with that in less than 2 weeks and well justified considering the following consolidation into the Flag.

--The flag from last week was also bullish, but with such a run up into it, it would be hard to really imagine a lot more green...this Monday was a nice surprise, but Tuesday's confirmation of the downtrend line (the top purple line) was a flashing "only idiot's don't take profit at this point" exit signal.


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Yeah that's a classic entry indicator, though given the mega run-up in the past few weeks its kinda hard to justify trading on it...for me at least. Maybe there's a day trade play in there somewhere...

What are next predictions from here? breaking out of larger purple trendline? or coming back to lower purple trendline/Yellow trendline