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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The biggest difference between the cognitive abilities of a common toad and a human is the count of neurons and the training of the network.
There is a Short joke in their somewhere. Imma call u back when i finds it...

EDIT:

Q: What's the difference between a Tesla short and a common toad?

A. You can reason with a toad. :D

:D

But celebration and jokes aside let's be civil and not go overboard comparing Tesla shorts to common toads: this is a comparison that common toads might find insulting.
 
Are you assuming the EPS would only double if Tesla doubled production rate? Thats not how it would work - EPS would be drastically higher than a lowly double.

For instance todays Profit from operations was $414 million, which came from $1.524 Billion in Gross Profts less $1.107 Billion in OpEx.

All else being equal (Margins, ASP etc) If production doubled, Gross profit would be $3 Billion and if OpEx was still similar at $1.1 billion - then profit from operations would be almost $1.9 Billion.

So in that hypothetical a 2x increase in production leads to a 4.5x increase in operating profit.

(yes I know my hypothetical is not completely realistic - at higher production ASP is going to probably be lower, but margins are better etc, and the above includes TE & Services as well, and opex would be a little higher as well. But hopefully you get my point)

I was trying to explain to shorts here. They can only understand sales double = EPS double. Forget about efficiency from scaling, reduced opex and the complex math of delivery and inventory in transit. You'll just be playing violin to sheeps.
 
What kind of price action will we see today and in the coming weeks? Any guesses?

I’ve got absolutely no clue. But with yearly profits of about $12 for each share, a price of 320 gives a PE multiple smaller than 30. That seems way too low for Tesla’s growth and potential.

As a part-time-swing-trader, this is my inner monologue right now:

- Good earnings means the stock should soar, like we saw yesterday AH;
- On the other hand there are many that bought the rumor on this ER (remember the 12% rise two days ago), most of those will sell this week for a very quick profit;
- On the other hand (again), after a short profit taking dip the slow money comes in to "buy the dip", so we could easily retake $350 this week IMHO. Barring macro's.

Going to ATH is something I wouldn't expect until Q4 delivery report, given the bad macro's basically, but it's far from impossible.
 

Certainly not the best environment for them to invest billions of dollars to purely reach parity with Tesla, let alone to come up with "Tesla killers", right? ...

TSLA valuation will have to include:

"Unopposed franchise owner of the lucrative high margin premium EVs monopoly, with no credible competition in sight"
 
Then MobilEye screwed Tesla (and sold itself to Intel for ~$15b) which created a 2 years bump in the road for Tesla.

That bump in the road is now history: AP2 + V8 was apparently already smoother than AP1 and with V9 it went up a notch, and it's pretty clear by actual binary level tear-down of Tesla's new neural network that HW3 enables a revolutionary jump in cognitive capabilities. In these 2 short years Tesla has vertically integrated not just their own NN technology, but has also vertically integrated NN chip design ...

The biggest difference between the cognitive abilities of a common toad and a human is the count of neurons and the training of the network.

I can understand how reading the traffic light is not enabled yet. Very interested in finding out how AP fares when trying to read the traffic light while the sun is setting (or sunrise) in your face. In image processing that have always presented an edge case that failed often. Even for human it's pretty difficult. How did AP1 solve this case I wonder.
 
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Very interested in finding out how AP fares when trying to read the traffic light while the sun is setting (or sunrise) in your face.

Check out this video at 4:00:


The sun is in the picture, but there's very little sun glare. Also see that while there is some glare, traffic lights are resolved very well as they are crossing the sun. I believe Tesla might be using polarizing filters to reduce glare.

But I'm sure there are going to be scenarios with poor visibility: wet road and low sun can be very dangerous even to human drivers. In this case even a human driver is well advised to park for 10-15 minutes until conditions improve.
 
As a part-time-swing-trader, this is my inner monologue right now:

- Good earnings means the stock should soar, like we saw yesterday AH;
- On the other hand there are many that bought the rumor on this ER (remember the 12% rise two days ago), most of those will sell this week for a very quick profit;
- On the other hand (again), after a short profit taking dip the slow money comes in to "buy the dip", so we could easily retake $350 this week IMHO. Barring macro's.

Going to ATH is something I wouldn't expect until Q4 delivery report, given the bad macro's basically, but it's far from impossible.

That sounds highly plausible. I'm really just replying to your post to give it double exposure, so that others may see it and not get anxious when today delivers a dip (as I did until reading your comment).
 
This is the tipping point.

Usually after an ER I write a comment the next day to read between the lines of the numbers and Q&A and give my analysis why what we heard is actually good or not so bad and why I recommend to stay on course.

Today I do not need to do that because the results speak for themselves. Finally most of what we longs predicted and defended for years has yesterday been proven to be correct and valid. We have had a lot of phases of uncertainty in the last months and years where a lot of people went emotional and lost trust because they have been more influenced by the media than they recognized and overlooked finally the elephant in the rom.

All predictions Elon made came true and the most important piece here is that he gained a huge weight of credibility now. Investors can now make a case why an investment in Tesla is meaningful versus before they had to defend why they are invested or intend to.

All numbers Tesla presented yesterday show a consistent picture of a company that disrupting a market fundamentally and turns from an overweight into CapEx investment with negative financial numbers despite of amazing growth into a cash generating, profit engine monster with a competitive edge that won't be touched for a long time. We just reached a new level in the history of Tesla.

Yesterday was history not because we have seen impressive Q3 numbers and a good ER call but because Tesla did prove that what mainstream called impossible has been confirmed and validated to be possible. All what Elon did promise before turned into reality.

This is history because the path forward is now more easy than it was ever before. Its still not an easy path but Tesla is clearly unstoppable now. Its done!

We should not underestimate the financial independence Tesla has achieved in Q3. With Elon's vision turning into reality with every day passing by the ability to grow, design, launch and deliver existing and future models as well as batteries and solar products as well as services to rent your car and make money with it is better than it has been ever. Every one of this three units will growth dramatically and create huge revenue and profits on its own.

  • Car business will continuously grow and dominate EV as ICE sales in all markets they appear. The Y, Semi, Roadster and Pickup will be an acceleration of growth, revenue and profits as well as cash generation that will turn Tesla into one of the largest companies globally.
  • The AP business combined with the ride hauling structure presented is not yet factored in and will drive a huge revenue generation with very low investment. The margin will be above 90% for Tesla cashing in about 30% of the revenue all people do renting their Tesla to others.
  • TE is just because of Battery shortages today yet small and although growing will accelerated every quarter until is another large cash generator and profit engine that dominates their space. The combination and synergies between the car business are amazing and still widely untouched.
The future looks indeed bright for Tesla and I want to thank all who brought good information, analytics and thoughts into this board as well as continued to believe in the mission. We all will be astounded altogether what we will experience in the years to come. This is still just the beginning.

As an investor you are from time to time challenged and Tesla is a good example for this. Since I invested the first time in 2015 I did not sell as single stock and can say I am very pleased with my decision to continuously add to my position in particular throughout the correction we have seen lately from $380 down to $247.

Congratulations to everybody sensing the signals and to the quite amazing group of smart people that came together here to discuss views, thought, opinions and information. Keep going.
 
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