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Singer3000
Member
I don’t mean to be flippant but the truth is that none of has much idea at all what the source is of the commodities we use every day. All you can do is consume a bit less of everything.
If a consumer is using a commodity in its mined form then they’ll know how it was mined if they care to investigate.
Once it’s smeltered and refined, you’ll struggle to know how it was mined, unless you are buying directly from the smelter and they are astoundingly open with you about their supply chain. At least you’ll know how it was smelted. But most of the time a coil, ingot, bar or cathode has changed hands multiple times before it reaches the end user (often through an exchange), meaning there may be no relationship between the end user and the smelter. This makes it unlikely that you’d be allowed to make your own environmental inspection of the smelter or determine the source mine.
Once it hits the downstream sector and is converted to a component, good luck finding out much reliable at all about what went into it.
The truth is that Western society has been quite happy to outsource the pollution from primary production to places we don’t think about much. When it comes to metals consumption, Tesla is environmentally superior because it’s striving for things Li Ion battery recycling and a million mile drive train. But I’m afraid I don’t put as much faith in a sourcing guideline than you do. And that’s especially the case once their Shanghai production is up and running.
Exclusive: Tesla's battery maker suspends cobalt supplier amid sanctions concern | Reuters
"concerned" is an interesting word. I think it should be higher than it is, but that's market irrationality and short manipulation. I would like it to be higher, but not if it compromises the mission. I can wait.
In dollars, but not as a percentage of the company value (which is about 20 times bigger for AMZN).
Leverage is scary.
I'm calling it -- we're in either a "bear market" or a "correction" (technically you can't tell which until you know how long it lasts). You name a sector, it's dropping.
I'm comfortable with my positioning. Tesla as a company is going to increase sales and profitability even in a bear market. My other investments are mostly sound companies which will increase sales and profitability in a bear market. The exception is a cash merger arb trade, and if that goes through I'll have cash to invest when the bear market ends. I don't have a lot of "generic" market exposure, and this is why I don't: I don't want to be in randomized stocks in a bear market. According to some studies, stock pickers often beat indices in bear markets.
How much of this is rising interest rates making getting loans for a big ticket item like a car more expensive vs. customers changing buying patters (EVs, SUVs)?
Double agreed with KarenRei and Fact Checking -- I've given this argument before (years ago!) for why it's better to hold TSLA through a recession than, say, Bank of America or Toyota.
I agree. It seems like the market is pricing in a recession in the next 6-9 months due to the Fed's hawkish stance.
ZachF
Active Member
YTD comparison of Tesla and some other automakers (GM, Ford, BMW, Daimler)
NikeWings
Active Member
Seems less aggressive lately but not trusting it.
Does anyone have Jonas' most recent note?
The more comments I read from you, the more I feel that you don't have a full understanding of how stocks are traded and what the actual results are.
MP3Mike's illustration was perfect. The shorts only give the impression of there being more shares available to trade than there really are. And it's done with support of the long shareholders (either complicit or illicit through the brokers who manage their accounts).
Stock price goes up or down with the market sentiment and is dependent on people actually executing trades that they agree to. If every seller (long trying to sell high or short trying to open a position) had a sell order of $500 and every buyer (long trying to add to their position or short trying to cover) had a buy order of $250, there would be ZERO trades despite how many millions of shares available.
Throw in market makers, who try to facilitate the execution of trades, and options, and it gets very complicated very quickly. All you can do then is monitor the trading activity in aggregate (ignore how many shares are actually available and who's shares are being loaned and how). Once you see that, you'll see that predicating the short-term stock price is an exercise in futility.
Keep in mind that hedge funds like fidelity and T. Rowe own tens of millions of shares of TSLA, and they loan out their shares of TSLA to reap the borrowing fees.
Your only chance to profit is noticing when the SP is trending in a direction that's opposite of available information. In which case, it either means you're missing some key information, or the stock is being manipulated. If it's manipulation, you'll profit from the correction.
So for your request for a capital raise to counter the market doubts, forget it. That's a short-term fix that adds capital costs and will only get twisted by the short-narrative anyway. Elon promised no more equity raises, so let him keep that promise and just hold on to your shares. Once the shorts realize their narrative is bunk, sentiment will change, and the short covering will take care of the rest.
Edit: One other response to your earlier question. Shares aren't created from trading. They're "created" (to overuse your term) from borrowing/lending. A trade happens after they've been borrowed (unless it's NAKED shorting where there's a trade done without any actual shares being borrowed in which case the buyer might not end up with any actual shares either! - that's why naked shorting is illegal).
400,000 cars produced yearly (S3XY’s and a few more semi’s for good measure) at this location by 2222 might do the trick.
dqd88
Member
Or perhaps your hubris is causing you to be willfully blind. I actually used to think like this for years. It's very text book and one-dimensional. A short is just a borrowed share, yada yada.
But when you hone in on the nuance, you start to see how it can be used as a weapon, used to manipulate SP.
Wrong. Fact Checking's illustration was perfect.
"shorting has diluted the pool of people who are long Tesla, and has put pressure on the price"
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
(please read fully and refute FC directly)
Both Fact Checking and Elon Musk believe that shorting has a "dilutive effect" (ie- not actual dilution, just the effect of dilution). I'll side with them. Much more logical. You're view is, with respect, naive, placates the bears, and does not recognize how shorting is used in the real world.
A simple thought experiment; indulge me for a moment.
Acme, Inc IPO's with 10 Billion shares.
John buys the 10B shares.
Nancy borrows the 10B shares from John's broker without John's knowledge.
Nancy sells 10B shares (how will this affect SP?) to Mark.
Mark's broker loans said 10B shares to Larry.
Larry sells 10B shares (what is affect on SP?) to Kim.
Rinse and repeat. Now Acme, Inc is a penny stock.
An extreme example. But let's stick with the principle where you believe that there's nothing wrong with short selling. If that's the case then you should be able to go through with this thought experiment and then see why, in principle, short selling is bad. In theory, with no limit on short selling, an infinite number of sell orders could be created. Obviously the number of potential Longs is finite. You do the math.
I never said they were created from selling. I said for new shares to be created in the open market it requires trading/a transaction. Does it not?
On the flip side, there can be many trades with fixed/limited shares. But I could be wrong
** for the record, I don't think that benefitting on the downside of a stock is bad or wrong per se; I'm just trying to understand better the truth behind actual market dynamics
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@dqd88 you are mercilessly beating a horse that’s been dead for at least a day now. Start a thread about it. John, Nancy, Bob, Bill their donuts Acme Corp all of them will join you over there. This has taken far too much of this thread.
tsunamiofhurt
Member
Q3 earnings will be this Wednesday, October 24th!! Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.
HECKIN SHOOT YES!!! <3<3<3
dqd88
Member
I only responded to Oil4AsphaultOnly. Had given up the issue long before that.
Oil4AsphaultOnly revived it; i replied. no?
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Surely that signals positive news. Surely it signals "a beat," no?
BOOOOOOOOOM! This is the best news ever!!!!!
Edit: I love that @tsunamiofhurt broke the news! Just too fitting!
Edit: I love that @tsunamiofhurt broke the news! Just too fitting!
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