TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[phil0909]

Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

This has been up a couple of hours now, and I see no comments here. Any thoughts on potential impact to market action? Small but unfavorable would be my guess.

 

[Open Interest]

The after hours uptick is slow but steadily increasing. Could actually be meaningful

Light volume but up 1%. Could be a good sign for tomorrow.

 

[Off Shore]

Tell that to the SEC.

The SEC knows, they slapped EM & Tesla for reckless speech. Tell that to Kessler, Topaz, Metzler & Check (yeah, really) who want you to sign on as lead litigant for the Shorty Air Force suit. In a fit of passive-aggressive pique I used their postage-paid envelop to send a five page (one ounce) note reading "KISS MY ROSY RED A$$"*

*Full disclosure my a$$ is pasty white, not rosy red, but KTM&C don't need to know that.

Edit: ADHD

 

[MP3Mike]

You are talking what could be, somewhere down the road. I deal in what is...today. Those "arrangements" are not free anymore.

Then why are you even commenting? The whole idea of the Tesla Network is something that could be.

And of course it wouldn't be free, that is what the Tesla cut of the ride cost would cover...

 

[Dynastar]

View attachment 340102 View attachment 340103 View attachment 340104 View attachment 340105
$73,310 + interest from financing (let’s say $1,500) + garage adaptation ($1,000 low end) + no-rinse wash setup plus initial ceramic coating detail ($400) plus sundries idk $500 = $76,710, so my $75K estimate is low. If you want an ugly one that might kill you going around normal hill roads in a 4-or-more-exception event (rain, oil slick, frozen patch, distraction by dog or baby, sun hits your eyes, unexpected bad sneeze, or phone or hot coffee falls off the mount into your lap), sure, knock off paint plus all whell drive and save $6,500+tax, and if you don’t want full self driving or assistance features, take off even more, and it’s basically a $59K artpiece in the driveway that you toy with on church day which has nothing to do with a single-car owning commuter like I was talking about.

How does the middle class get to work in your world?

 

[RobStark]

 

[Krugerrand]

The answer is simple economics.

Uber drivers are struggling now using cars that are in most cases fully paid off. You want people with $700-900 car payments to become minimum wage drivers, blowing through their warranties in record time? Never going to happen...

You are also forgetting car services would need supercharging which is no longer available for commercial uses such as Uber or Lyft

Another one of your ‘you have no idea’ assumptions used to bolster your narrative. As in you have no idea how many Uber drivers are driving entirely paid for cars. NONE.

 

[theschnell]

Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

This has been up a couple of hours now, and I see no comments here. Any thoughts on potential impact to market action? Small but unfavorable would be my guess.

Irrelevant

 

[SpaceCash]

Perhaps folks have time to crunch the numbers and figured it out. If FAct Checking is right and we are going to have a lot of cash in Q3 and Q4, short thesis has been pretty much destroyed. Time to buy more here or wait for Q3 ER?

Oh it's buy time NOW.
I bought more Feb '19 calls on Friday and one additional Aug '19 call today. Will buy more as my paychecks allow until da skweeeeezzz

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

This has been up a couple of hours now, and I see no comments here. Any thoughts on potential impact to market action? Small but unfavorable would be my guess.

We’re believing this?

 

[beachbum77]

Indeed, you are right, I got that wrong.

(Where I got confused is vehicles in transit: at the beginning of Q3 were 11,166 M3s, while 8,048 at the end of Q3. But those are both in the finished goods inventory, and the net inventory drawdown is what you calculated.)

I made the same mistake with S/X as well: the real drawdown is 757 units.

So the change in inventory: 60k*2,600+104k*757 = ~$234m - which lowers the result to $892m. (Note that this is relative to Q2 and only approximate. )

But these are rough estimates, the real cash flow estimates are in luvb2b's latest model run.

Sorry, but you both got it wrong. Model 3 inventory grew in Q3 by 517 units to 1,985 since the beginning of production last year. As you can see the bold numbers are supplied by Tesla. The rest is simple math.

Model S&X combined did see a reduction in inventory units in Q3 of 641 vehicles globally.

Because C+D is greater than total deliveries (E) the inventory increased. Had end-of-quarter in-transit units been higher, inventory would have shrunk.

 

[tinm]

The tone of NYT coverage on Tesla remains consistently negative as if they harbor a deep, lasting grudge.

I remain really curious as to what drives the disdain they have for Musk and the company. Printing a quote from some nobody comparing Musk to Jim Jones of Jonestown is simply bizarre, obscene. It is extraordinary to witness this from supposedly the greatest news organization in the world, on the same day they publish an impressive, year-in-the-making, 13,000-word investigative report on the Trump family finances.

Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

This has been up a couple of hours now, and I see no comments here. Any thoughts on potential impact to market action? Small but unfavorable would be my guess.

 

[AWDtsla]

We’re believing this?

If it succeeds in depressing the SP tomorrow, I'm loading up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

While we're all tearing at our beards over this perplexing SP, might brighten your day to hear that Model X was the top selling car in Norway in September - this is of ALL car types, not just EV's

So that's exactly 2016 Models S+X sold in Norway in Sep for approx. $170M USD in revenue.

Compare that to the Nissan Leaf at 1071 units. If the ASP was approx. $33,600 USD that's about $36M in sales (which is split between Nissan and their Dealers).

So that's 170M/36M or about 470% higher revenue for Tesla vs Nissan in Norway for Sep 2018.

Impressive.

 

[AWDtsla]

The tone of NYT coverage on Tesla remains consistently negative as if they harbor a deep, lasting grudge.

I remain really curious as to what drives the disdain they have for Musk and the company. Printing a quote from some nobody comparing Musk to Jim Jones of Jonestown is simply bizarre, obscene. It is extraordinary to witness this from supposedly the greatest news organization in the world, on the same day they publish an impressive, year-in-the-making, 13,000-word investigative report on the Trump family finances.

John M Broder, as in this guy A Most Peculiar Test Drive, joined the editorial board of the nytimes this year.

 

[beachbum77]

Then why are you even commenting? The whole idea of the Tesla Network is something that could be.

And of course it wouldn't be free, that is what the Tesla cut of the ride cost would cover...

Because you talked about why not do it now. I am trying to tell you why it would not work now...today/tomorrow without substantial changes.

 

[jkirkwood001]

It's a more straightforward decision than that. Supposedly, after deliveries, their next limiting bottleneck is battery cell production. If that's the case, then it's in their interests to make and sell "well optioned out" SRs. Say, with PUP and AWD.

If, say, they their other lines can churn out (and deliver) 7,5k cars per week, but cell production at Giga can only handle 5k LRs, then it'd be in their best interests to only make well-optioned SRs (assuming they have enough demand in the US and Canada for SR + AWD + PUP).

Agreed, but with what Panasonic has done at GF1, I think paint is the current production restriction.

 

[beachbum77]

We’re believing this?

They are writing about what happened before the settlement on Saturday. The article is just a page filler...nonsense.

 

[Unpilot]

John M Broder, as in this guy A Most Peculiar Test Drive, joined the editorial board of the nytimes this year.

And this is why it is strange to wonder why EM wanted to fight the SEC.
Blatant lies and FUD all the time from people like this. Then EM says 2 words that are enough for a lawsuit??

 

[bhzmark]

Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

This has been up a couple of hours now, and I see no comments here. Any thoughts on potential impact to market action? Small but unfavorable would be my guess.

An interesting article on the dynamics between Bd and EM. It suggests that he really really didn't want to settle and made the issue an ultimatum. When put as an ultimatum, the Bd has to do what is best for the co in the long run. If anytime the CEO isn't getting what he wants, and he threatens to resign if he doesn't get what he wants, and the board is committed to the position that the CEO leaving would harm the company worse than just about anything they could be asked to do, then the board is pretty much a non-entity -- they have to cave to just about anything the CEO wants.

But when the CEO is executing and has proven his value to the company and has the leverage to make those demands, that is probably as it should be. An interesting governance dynamic.