TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

I suspect they aren't giving guidance because chapter 11 bankruptcy is imminent.

BRAVO!

You had me thinking all this time that you were a serious poster... an actual short with a position you actually believed, however misguided you may have been.

But this... in this post you took the ruse too far.... but such brilliant parody up until now. I hadn't caught on that you had just been posting satire the whole time.

Well played sir... well played!

 

[Ulmo]

This is very nice, but I'm still waiting for a Tesla car to be the top selling car in Germany and other large european market.

Selling a large market share at all in Germany would be beyond a success story; your minimum goal post is ridiculous.

 

[SpaceCash]

Disappointing price action today, short manipulation probably fully in effect although I haven't checked the trades for signature shorty sales.

Bought one more call, Aug 19 $700 strike lottery ticket

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

The denial is strong in this one. Let me ask a question since I’m not big into the number crunching/accounting, where do “finished goods” fall into this math?

Great question. I was simplifying for that poster's understanding, but I'll give you a different frame.

2.2B in cash
- 900M in restricted cash (deposits can't be used for bond payments)
- 300M due in November
- 500M minimum cash balance
- 900M due in March
= -400M

Tesla has burned roughly 700M per quarter for the past 3 quarters. They need to suddenly start generating 400M in cash to stay afloat, and that's at a bare minimum.

Turning around a company that was burning 700M per quarter and suddenly generating positive 200M per quarter... That's an insanely hard thing to do.

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

And that's just to stay afloat. Nevermind investments in the Model Y, the Semi, the Solar Roof, etc.

 

[AndyH]

Here's the list of Model 3 Average Sales Price (ASP) figures, per quarter:

Q1/2018  $55,925
Q2/2018  $55,424
Q3/2018  $60,332
Q4/2018  $62,200 (est.)

So, ASP has been increasing steadily, as Tesla ran out of demand in the U.S., selling cheaper and cheaper optioned cars ... wait a minute.

Model 3 revenue might be twice that of any other car sold in US. Q3 financials will be interesting. This October feels like it will be the longest month ever.

 

[Ulmo]

This is incorrect. This is the first delivery report in a while that does not mention financial guidance or the reservation list.

Q2 Deliveries Report:

We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000
​

Q1 Deliveries Report:

Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1.

laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow.​

Because they don’t need to, because their success is obvious from the numbers, and because their financial department is temporarily backlogged.

 

[Fact Checking]

2.2B in cash

That's false, you are citing the end of Q2 cash of Tesla, @luvb2b re-ran his financial model today with today's delivery numbers, and Tesla has almost 3 billion dollars in cash right now: $2,957,000 according to these estimates.

Cash is expected to rise to $3.5b in Q4, even with essentially flat Model 3 deliveries in Q4.

Tesla has started generating serious amounts of cash: it's cash flow positive.

 

[oneday]

Great question. I was simplifying for that poster's understanding, but I'll give you a different frame.

2.2B in cash
- 900M in restricted cash (deposits can't be used for bond payments)
- 300M due in November
- 500M minimum cash balance
- 900M due in March
= -400M

Tesla has burned roughly 700M per quarter for the past 3 quarters. They need to suddenly start generating 400M in cash to stay afloat, and that's at a bare minimum.

Turning around a company that was burning 700M per quarter and suddenly generating positive 200M per quarter... That's an insanely hard thing to do.

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

And that's just to stay afloat. Nevermind investments in the Model Y, the Semi, the Solar Roof, etc.

You didn’t answer the question troll.

 

[gora321]

I wouldnt be so fast though. Tesla maybe selling large amounts of cars. However that may not mean anything if they are negative cashflow after the surge. Those numbers are all that matters and are yet to be seen.

Todays figures are fundamental for Q3 ER. There are slightly better than expected. I do not see a problem.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Great question. I was simplifying for that poster's understanding, but I'll give you a different frame.

2.2B in cash
- 900M in restricted cash (deposits can't be used for bond payments)
- 300M due in November
- 500M minimum cash balance
- 900M due in March
= -400M

Tesla has burned roughly 700M per quarter for the past 3 quarters. They need to suddenly start generating 400M in cash to stay afloat, and that's at a bare minimum.

Turning around a company that was burning 700M per quarter and suddenly generating positive 200M per quarter... That's an insanely hard thing to do.

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

And that's just to stay afloat. Nevermind investments in the Model Y, the Semi, the Solar Roof, etc.

This is not market action, please post in the correct thread.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

You didn’t answer the question troll.

Yes, I did...

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

 

[supratachophobia]

Or - they are cash flow positive and they will report it during their earnings report.

Utilizing nonsensical trends to justify Tesla not being cash-flow positive is not smart.

I sill maintain that supercharge expansion is the canary for positive cash flow. In the 2-3 quarters they've been profitable, they've been extremely conservative about supercharger deployment. Not exactly scientific, but hey, what is when it comes to TSLA?

 

[mongo]

The denial is strong in this one. Let me ask a question since I’m not big into the number crunching/accounting, where do “finished goods” fall into this math?

Inventory line under Assets .
Broken down in the 10-Q 0001564590-18-019254 | 10-Q | Tesla, Inc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok, this is too funny, I have to share it.

Index.hu is the biggest Hungarian news portal - the biggest independent one, not bowing to the government anyway. Their financial analysis is so-so and when it comes to Tesla it is usually a 3 on a scale where Business Insider is a 1 and @luvb2b is a 10.

Having said that they had an extremely positive article tonight about the Q3 Tesla numbers where they only made 1 really stupid conclusion in the whole piece. A record, really. But imagine my surprise when they present a chart about "market estimates" for Q3 and I see this very community listed at the bottom of the chart. We were, unsurprisingly, closest to the actuals.

PS: little help reading the chart: The title says "Model 3 expectations" and the first column is production, the last one is deliveries.

 

[AWDtsla]

I sill maintain that supercharge expansion is the canary for positive cash flow. In the 2-3 quarters they've been profitable, they've been extremely conservative about supercharger deployment. Not exactly scientific, but hey, what is when it comes to TSLA?

I don't think so, supercharger installation cost seems almost immaterial. They're probably paying 300k per station these days? Probably much less if using gen3 chargers? If we wait 4 more days without a new opening though I'm sure we can get another article on how supercharger expansion has stalled

 

[The Blue Owl]

Ok, this is too funny, I have to share it.

Index.hu is the biggest Hungarian news portal - the biggest independent one, not bowing to the government anyway. Their financial analysis is so-so and when it comes to Tesla it is usually a 3 on a scale where Business Insider is a 1 and @luvb2b is a 10.

Having said that they had an extremely positive article tonight about the Q3 Tesla numbers where they only made 1 really stupid conclusion in the whole piece. A record, really. But imagine my surprise when they present a chart about "market estimates" for Q3 and I see this very community listed at the bottom of the chart. We were, unsurprisingly, closest to the actuals.

PS: little help reading the chart: The title says "Model 3 expectations" and the first column is production, the last one is deliveries.
View attachment 340134

And they credit Gordon Johnson with Troy's number. I can't stand this Gordon guy because he's so incredibly stupid and anchors keep pushing his face on TV. But now on top of that, he's a thief, too.

 

[gora321]

Yes, I did...

I see that you are so kind person taking care of us not to make any wrong investment decision..and you are doing for free, hanging out here as real volunteer.
Why don't you do it also during the weekend? They do not pay you? What kind of job you have?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shortsville Times Bumpersticker:

"We might be short,
but we're always around."

 

[Cartegena]

Now I am quite sure they will find a way to argue TSLAQ even after Q4, they are pretty creative that way, but two blowout quarters will change the mainstream narrative and their noise will be much less effective.

What would constitute "two blowout quarters" in order to make the shorts much less effective?

 

[Svetlin]

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

Except that you get the additional benefit from the margin improvement relative to Q2 of the other 20k Model 3s as well... but you knew that..