TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lunitiks]

I mean Lucid Motors, WTF. That car????

 

[KarenRei]

Does that need pointing out?

Does any investor here believe the average wage, median wage, and distribution of wages in general in India are similar to the US?

Looking up... the top 1% in India have a mean reported income of $11k/yr but due to underreporting, an actual $20k/yr. This puts India's top 1% (13,5M people) about on par with overall per-capita income in Greece (10,7M people), the Czech Republic (10,6M people), Estonia (1,3M people), Saudi Arabia (33,4M people) and Portugal (10,3M people). Definitely a meaningful market - not super-massive, but not something that you want to ignore.

 

[Sunlight]

Despite my distaste for the Tesla shorts and their inherent negativity and my disgust at the measures that vested interests will go to in a (futile) attempt to stop the transition to EVs (and sink Tesla in the process), I reserve my main loathing for the news outlets.

One (vainly) hopes that the main news channels would make some attempt to report news in a broad, fair/balanced and unbiased way notwithstanding the fact that there may be an apparent 'slant' to their reporting. But it is increasingly clear that many mainstream news outlets have let patronage/prejudice/self-interest or whatever cloud their judgement to such an extent that their reporting has just turned into a hatchet job on Tesla and, particularly Elon. I do not think it coincidental that their reporting has changed as Tesla looks to have escaped failure.

Ironically they have painted themselves into a lose-lose situation as history will not paint them in a kind light if they are complicit in destroying Telsa – a world-leading, innovative American company with a profound mission. Especially as some future investigative digging (or whistle-blowing) will likely reveal nasty bedfellows and clear destructive agendas.

If, however, Tesla still thrives, reduced credibility of news media (and particular news corporations); certain journalists and many 'analysts' will further erode the public trust of 'The News' as a source of information.

Let's hope Tesla thrives and sinks a fair number of shorts; analysts and sloppy/vindictive journalists!

 

[lklundin]

I mean Lucid Motors, WTF. That car????

Clearly, the Saudis don't know what to do with all their money (and perhaps they learnt something about a ceiling on their Tesla investment).

 

[RobStark]

Looking up... the top 1% in India have a mean reported income of $11k/yr but due to underreporting, an actual $20k/yr. This puts India's top 1% (13,5M people) about on par with overall per-capita income in Greece (10,7M people), the Czech Republic (10,6M people), Estonia (1,3M people), Saudi Arabia (33,4M people) and Portugal (10,3M people). Definitely a meaningful market - not super-massive, but not something that you want to ignore.

With the cost of living being much lower that means more disposable income.

Meaning much more sales of $25k Teslas.

Never implied India should be ignored.

 

[KarenRei]

Sounds like the market will go below $300 tomorrow. Get your buyers hats on if you have left any powder dry (I did )

 

[RobStark]

Saudis going after Lucid Motors instead?

Exclusive: Saudi PIF in talks to invest in aspiring Tesla rival Lucid - sources

"PIF and Lucid Motors have drawn up a term sheet under which PIF could invest more than $1 billion in Lucid Motors and obtain majority ownership, the sources said. PIF's first investment in Lucid Motors, however, would be for $500 million, and subsequent cash injections would come in two stages that are contingent on Lucid Motors hitting certain production milestones, one of the sources added."

Peter Rawlinson said Lucid needs $700M for complete build out of Arizona factory or $200M to get production started at ~60k units per year.

 

[Menifeer]

... If I were making the play you're making I'd probably sell $390 puts instead; cashing everyone out above the all-time high would probably satisfy Elon's conscience towards the long-term investors.

I'd sell the $420 Puts vs the $390s...

If, as most expect, a squeeze drives the price above $420, more would be made covering the $420s. If the price remains below $390, covering either will give about the same gain.

 

[Sancho]

There are going to be a lot of IRA investors and 401(k) investors and RRSP investors who are out of luck. I don't know how many shares are held by such plans.

Yeah, I don't think this can be accelerated.

Not so fast, Neroden. I can think of ways that all current shareholders could participate, and I’m not as clever as the team of lawyers Musk has retained (who must have approved his assertions in his written letters that all shareholders will be able to participate).

For example, TSLAP could put the minority of shares that can’t be held directly into a publicly listed holding company. Those interests might be freely tradeable, but it would be a small market in which the price would automatically reset each quarter when the much larger base of regular TSLAP shares would be repriced by their terms.

 

[sub]

the horse can be beaten no more.

I saw the bat signal, thought my boy might be needed?

I’m ~1000 posts behind, hoping to catch up before TSLAP is official.

 

[sundaymorning]

The Lucid news makes it so clear the Saudis are courting Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

The Lucid news makes it so clear the Saudis are courting Tesla.

Not really seeing that stretch. But it does make clear a point that I've been making, that they're serious about buying EV manufacturers rather than some secret "try to suppress the technology" plot. You're not suppressing anything when funding a startup like Lucid that doesn't produce anything.

 

[RobStark]

Not really seeing that stretch. But it does make clear a point that I've been making, that they're serious about buying EV manufacturers rather than some secret "try to suppress the technology" plot. You're not suppressing anything when funding a startup like Lucid that doesn't produce anything.

You don't need a secret assassination plot to kill someone that is on their death bed.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Of course, for Reuters another Chance to refer to the UBS report.... FUUUUUUUUUUD

 

[Navin]

Elon musk likely broke up with grimes over Last several days. Could help explain sadness while talking to NYT. Check out vanity fair article for sadness comp. I have read his bio book several times - things are very predictable with him.

 

[RobStark]

Correction on above about Lucid Motors Factory.

Lucid Motors is currently raising a financing round in order to start building its $700 million EV factory

Rawlinson told the Motley Fool that the first phase of the plant would cost around $240 million:

“Instead, the manufacturing facility will have three phases, the first of which is expected to cost $240 million. That should allow the company to ramp up to producing about 8,000 to 10,000 vehicles per year, with production commencing in 2019. Only after all three stages are completed (expected around 2022 if all goes well) will the total investment reach $700 million.”

 

[kbM3]

Your friend is thinking in terms of corporations and entities. He needs to change his mindset to a country called Saudi Arabia, where its funds are entirely reliant on oil, a commodity that may not be as popular 20-30 years from now as it is going to be replaced. The Saudis are hedging against an epic downfall of oil prices, which will be replaced by alternative energy that is cleaner and more efficient. If the Saudis don’t make that hedge, their country may fall not only into poverty one day, but they might be looking at revisiting the Stone Age.

This explains why Saudi wants to own TSLA but not why they’re willing to pay a premium.

That's an interesting question and normally your neighbor would be right - and if Tesla was any other company I'm convinced we would have seen a hostile Saudi takeover bid of Tesla back in April/May when the price was the best for them and Tesla was the weakest.

But your neighbor is wrong, because he is missing the one key Tesla value the Saudis cannot purchase: Elon Musk. If Elon doesn't agree or simply isn't happy with the outcome, he might just sell and start Tesla v2 elsewhere, and many key employees would follow him. I think that's why the Saudis came to Elon twice in the last 2 years, that's why they are negotiating with him about the $420 going-private buyout offer.

Look how quickly Elon got the Boring Company going.

I am convinced that the Saudis would be 100% happy about a Dell like outcome: a forced buyout of all but a few shareholders. But Elon said no.

That's also why the shorts are trying to attack Elon, to devalue him in the eyes of the Saudis. (Little seem they realize that by painting Elon the stubborn macho who goes through heaven and hell, they are likely increasing his cult value in middle-eastern cultures...)

So if this was any other company the Saudis would not have stopped at 5% in June.

Ask your neighbor a probing question: if the Saudis want Tesla, why did the Saudis stop buying, and why are they in talks with Elon, the board and Silver Lake of Dell fame? They could buy a controlling stake on the market right now for less than what they paid for the 5% initial stake. Why aren't they buying?

Pretty much the only answer that makes sense in this context is because the Saudis know how important Elon is to Tesla and want him aboard. Owning 18% of a disruptive company (slightly less than Elon's 20% share) is so much better than owning 25% or even 50% of a company that is a burnt out shell of its former self.

Elon's price is apparently going private with a specific corporate structure that keeps him and Tesla free to shape the future. That's what the $420 price and going-private is about, I think.

I don’t fully understand your answer. I come from an engineering background.

What is the problem with the Saudis purchasing a higher percentage (say up to 18%) on the open market after Elon made the announcement?

 

[TrendTrader007]

·
3m

Replying to @bjohn352
$TSLA might prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator
Like Dewey defeats Truman

 

[Opus BC fan]

I mean Lucid Motors, WTF. That car????

Clearly, a Tesla Killer...abandon all hope now. Sell Sell Sell

 

[madodel]

Clearly, a Tesla Killer...abandon all hope now. Sell Sell Sell

I was just thinking "Where is that Tesla killer all the trolls were shouting about a couple years ago?" If it ever actually shows up it will just help kill off Mercedes and BMW faster.