TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Bought a few hundred shares today around 320 and 310 on limits. This is in my 401k, so couldn't sell puts. Yet figure out how to buy larger amounts.

This is a weird time - longs like me are also waiting for lower prices.

 

[oneday]

Any TA experts out there that can read this chart?

Looks like a giant middle finger to me. Next stop 4:20?

 

[neroden]

He did not only say funding secure (with an spesific price) but also: Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

There seems to be a bit more work than there wote before Tesla is private. If this is not stretching the truth well into a fase statement then anything goes.

Yeah, this is a problem statement. In this statement I assume "investor" means the go-private funders (not... well... all of us) because it's the only way the statement makes sense. However, there are always all kinds of governmental approvals and whatnot which can trip up a deal, and so "only reason why this is not certain" is clearly wrong.

 

[neroden]

Revelation that Fidelity and T Rowe Price have cut back their position significantly and institutional ownership is down to 57% IMO has had more impact on SP than the row over Elon's tweet.

That has to give all players with significant TSLA positions pause.

Why?

Over a year ago, I spent a while trying to figure out which institutional investors were long-termers and which were short-termers. I figured T Rowe Price were short-termers and Fidelity funds were about *half* short-termers. This doesn't surprise.

 

[neroden]

I agree he's likely not going to jail, but there IS the possibility. And it's that possibility that is hanging over the stock, as that would make tesla worth 0. He doesn't have to go to jail, he just has to be barred from being an officer of the company.

It's not possible. To actually file criminal charges or bar him from being an officer, they'd have to prove that Musk's intent was to manipulate the stock price. It's becoming really really clear that Musk's intent is... to take Tesla private. Even if Musk was materially incorrect in his statement, they'd have to prove that he knew that -- even if they proved that, they can't prove that the intent is to manipulate the stock price, *because that was clearly not his intent*.

Fine? Possible. Prison or barring from officer status? Impossible.

 

[1kEE]

Any TA experts out there that can read this chart?

Looks like a giant middle finger to me. Next stop 4:20?

I believe the technical name is a Head and Shoulders, specifically a Stalin’s Penis variant of it.

“Stalin’s Penis” . . . . … – Evil Buildings Around The World

Look at the bright side, we are at the floor level of the formation... I see brighter days ahead... was a buying opportunity IMHO...

 

[neroden]

The article had no info that would lead me to conclusion that Erin Biba is vile. Do you have information to confirm your point? Please post it.

It's out there. Her behavior is vile. Do your own googling.

 

[neroden]

Really? Ignorant? Just suggesting a possibility is not allowed?

I never said it was likely, and I've said multiple times that it has been highly unlikely...... but to insinuate that there is 0% chance seems to me to actually be the factually inaccurate statement. I'm saying the non-zero risk that we face is making people cautious of investing more money.

Well, I mean, with Trump acting like a dictator and openly wishing that he could just lock people up on his own say-so, I suppose an extrajudicial imprisonment is possible. Or the Saudis could kidnap Elon Musk and lock him in a 5-star hotel, like they did with so many of their own billionaires. But there is 0% chance that Musk would be *convicted* of anything which would send him to jail.

 

[neroden]

I'm long TSLA bigtime (relative to the size of my portfolio) so I'm hoping this is not accurate and I can be paranoid but I've recently become quite concerned. The SEC investigation could be a significant negative development but I can also see how it may blow over. HOWEVER, the report that Tesla is concerned about billions (plural) of potential losses from investor lawsuits....could that not force them into bankruptcy (or some other poor alternative i.e. fire sale, divestitures etc.)? They only have a couple billion cash on hand. That's sufficient for production ramp and normal operation but throw unexpected $billions of costs into the mix and it may not be. They could raise cash but that could prove very difficult as it would be a move of desperation.

Is no one else here concerned? Again, hoping I'm wrong but I'm getting worried about getting my car delivered and having a lasting support structure around it, let alone stock losses.

Frankly, I think Tesla hasn't allocated enough for legal defense.

 

[juanmedina]

It makes me sooooo angry. I can't believe he gave the interview to this *** hole

 

[Remus]

Why did Elon say this?

“I thought the worst of it was over — I thought it was,” he said. “The worst is over from a Tesla operational standpoint.” He continued: “But from a personal pain standpoint, the worst is yet to come.”

Also I find it funny that the shorts don't think that Tesla will go private. They say that we are all cult members following our leader Elon but then they say these cult members won't vote to make Tesla private even though that's what the cult leader wants. Can't have it both ways shorts.

I think they probably cut the sentence short, the later part maybe "that's why I want to take Tesla private".

 

[neroden]

Tesla employees say the main Model 3 production line has been shutting down early

The FUD is working overtime.

Tesla needs to go private ASAP

This is a completely ridiculous piece of FUD. Those who have been paying attention (sigh) know that there's a bottleneck in some form of parts supply for the AWD models (expected to be resolved soon, perhaps within days) and that demand for RWD is pretty much sated right now. That's a bottleneck and it's going to cause some production slowdowns.

They're probably debugging the delays on line 3 during the downtime.

 

[neroden]

I’m wondering one basic question; what is the motivation for possible buy out buyers for them to take Tesla private and pay 420 a share, when they can buy stocks from open markets with cheaper price?

It can’t be future control of Tesla, because Musk has said, he is not going to give anyone control.

Eli 5.

OK. So "Fact Checking" has a hypothesis: that nobody's going to be let in on the go private deal if they gobble up stock now. Basically the other companies doing the go-private deal would see these companies as *front-running* them on the shares, and so there's a standstill agreement. This is entirely hypothetical, mind you, but it makes sense. If there's jockeying for getting the largest percentage of TSLA after it goes private, a company may have the choice of offering a big wad of cash to the go-private consortium (and *not* buying shares now) or buying up shares on the open market now (and *not* getting in on the go-private consortium). The problem is that any company taking the second option gets disclosed when they hit 5%. Entirely hypothetical but makes sense.

 

[dondy]

Any TA experts out there that can read this chart?

Looks like a giant middle finger to me. Next stop 4:20?

It gave me a chuckle.
You actually can plot it. are there outtakes with big trades in this segment?

 

[neroden]

Read it about an hour ago and the only thing in there that truly concerns me is his use of Ambien. Continued use of that stuff, especially if you're somewhat depressed, can be wicked... I'm talking from experience. I hope he can find time to visit with his kids and his friends and just unwind so he can get some sleep without that stuff. I know he's under a ton of stress, but that stuff won't help.

Ambien's a really bad pill. I'd prefer he used Xanax, frankly.

 

[dondy]

Yeah, this is a problem statement. In this statement I assume "investor" means the go-private funders (not... well... all of us) because it's the only way the statement makes sense. However, there are always all kinds of governmental approvals and whatnot which can trip up a deal, and so "only reason why this is not certain" is clearly wrong.

If my memory serves me good, there should be 90% shares collected to declare privatization complete. 50% to start.
There was a problem with one minority investor in Dell, but I don't remember the number precisely.

 

[wipster]

Ambien's a really bad pill. I'd prefer he used Xanax, frankly.

Aleve PM works great, plus it helps with your allergies because the active ingredient is benedryl.

 

[neroden]

The takeaway: Musk opponents went all-in to make the going-private buyout deal fail. I.e. they are really worried about Tesla going private.

I wonder why. Makes sense for short-sellers (they can't short a private stock), noise traders and stock manipulators (can't trade a private stock), options traders (no listed options on a private stock), and even financial journalists (can't sell as much of a story about a private stock). This does indicate that it's the financial side who are spreading most of the FUD. Big Auto and the Russians wouldn't care whether Tesla was private.

 

[bdy0627]

From the article: "In the interview on Thursday, Mr. Musk alternated between laughter and tears."

Sounds pretty balanced to me!

It seems pretty obvious to me that the NYT decided, by their choice of words throughout the opinion piece, to portray Elon not as a human being but as a caricature of instability. Best I can tell, that was their intent. Tesla investors were on eggshells about what is going on with the situation right now, highly vulnerable to this type of portrayal. Bullseye.

 

[wipster]

This is a completely ridiculous piece of FUD. Those who have been paying attention (sigh) know that there's a bottleneck in some form of parts supply for the AWD models (expected to be resolved soon, perhaps within days) and that demand for RWD is pretty much sated right now. That's a bottleneck and it's going to cause some production slowdowns.

They're probably debugging the delays on line 3 during the downtime.

I sure hope you're right...