TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dennisj00]

Re: CNBC

I gave up on CNBC about the time I signed up here. Perhaps we need a list of advertisers/ contacts to express our displeasure of the one sided reporting.

 

[mongo]

This ignores accounts payable, which is a liability that's almost the size of their entire cash position.

And you are ignoring that much of AP is due or to inventory (2.57 Billion) (parts to make cars, or parts to make power packs/walls, or parts to make solar panels/shingles ).
And the bill for the car parts is not due till after they've sold the car.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

And the bill for the car parts is not due till after they've sold the car.

Source?

You're saying a suppliers are willing to wait as long as it takes for the car to be built/delivered? Man, I need to find some new suppliers for my company...

Most accounts payable are due in 30-90 days after receiving the invoice.

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My point was that net working capital is the metric: current assets (includes inventory, cash) - current liabilities (includes debt payments, obligations)

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Someone mentioned in the general thread that the price action today suggests the possibility of a leaked analyst downgrade with hedge funds doing some selling today. This does feel different than a typical morning dip. If you are considering adding some trading shares, it might be prudent to wait until tomorrow.

I like this. Exploiting Chanos' short-playbook to personally benefit!

 

[defc0n]

as a bear i must admit that these are much better numbers for the start of july than i expected

I really don’t understand why this would be surprising.

 

[defc0n]

Or...maybe people expected more news out of Elon's trip to Beijing...

That would be me.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Mod: it's a fair cop, my calculation was indeed wrong... 8 digit calculator, when I entered 1.2B, it didn't take the last zero. --ggr


1. They don't have to pay off any of the other debt, it won't be current, so the correct number to use was only the $1.2B.

I think you're missing the $550 million in limited recourse debt due before 3/31.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

For one thing, Firebird has the debt schedule wrong. Basically none of his numbers are right. How does he turn $920 million (in *convertibles* no less) into 1.2 billion? Is he adding the $230 million due in September and then *rounding up* by 50 million? Nooo, that can't be, because he used two significant digits elsewhere in his numbers ("2.35 bilion") and there is a difference between 1.15 billion and 1.2 billion.

Total debt due in the 12 months to 3/31/19 is about $1.756 billion.

 

[neroden]

I think you're missing the $550 million in limited recourse debt due before 3/31.

*Snort* *laugh*

You don't think they'll be able to refinance that? Seriously? Sunbird, do you even know what that non-recourse debt is or how it works?

It's *secured by income streams*. The auto-backed notes are maturity-matched with the lease income. The term loan (secured by a particular package of solar lease income streams) will be refinanced by another term loan, probably from the same place. The Warehouse Agreement is also financing leases, same way.

No matter how much FUD or disinformation is spread about Tesla, that stuff can always be refinanced. Always. (If it's maturity-matched it doesn't need to be refinanced at all. The risk of refinancing is a change in interest rates. In the very unlike worst case, the Warehouse agreement dries up, new auto leases couldn't be funded, in which case Tesla... wouldn't offer new leases.)

Really not doing your homework.

For the serious analysts here, I will point out that this is why I look at the *changes* in Tesla's income from quarter to quarter as the number of cars sold changes. A large part of Tesla's income -- the part from leases -- is already committed to pay off the loans which back those leases. In order to see when Tesla will show a profit, the absolute numbers are confusing as it is hard to back out all this maturity-matched loan/lease stuff. But the changes period-to-period are meaningful. Tesla needs to *increase* its quarterly profitability by enough to cover the real debt maturities -- the ones which actually need to be repaid from new income -- not the ones which are already matched up with lease revenue, where the revenue and expense cancels out every quarter already.

 

[defc0n]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

 

[neroden]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

It's exactly like the tsunami of hurt... it'll take place 6 months from when Elon predicted

 

[Cosmacelf]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

Elon was referring to what he himself could affect. Ie producing 5,000 Model 3 in a week. He accomplished that. How that or anything else affects the stock price is anyone’s guess.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

I have been buying TSLA since 2011. It always seems to move up about 3-4 months after I expect it to. With the currently coordinated media negativity blitz, I do not expect big moves in the near future. This is astounding to me since I follow Tesla very closely. I figure I can't lose with my loooong position. Good Product+Good Management+Good Company = Good Investment. Not rocket science (but I wish I could invest in SpaceX too)

 

[ZsoZso]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

Here is my theory (pure speculation):
Elon may have known that some of the major investors (such as Ron Baron and Tencent) were planning to further increase their holdings once Tesla can demonstrate 5k/week M3 production. He figured they would not jump right away on 1st of July due to the Holiday-week, but he expected them to start putting on a major buying pressure driving the stock up from past Monday (9th), hence the timing in his tweets. However, the investors knew that Q2 results will look really bad and the Shorts will use that to drive the stock lower, so they decided to wait another 3 weeks and start accumulating at a more favorable price. So now Elon's prediction turns into typical time-miss by a factor of 2 and we have to endure some more ups and downs and sideway moves.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

Yeah, I guess I was stupid believing Elon's "3 weeks maybe, 6 weeks definitely the shorts will explode" and now I'm just holding the bag. The good news is Tesla actually is making cars and making factory deals so my investment will probably pay off in the end. Elon is a man who doesn't know how to fail, he uses sheer willpower to will his way to success. So going by his history, my money is safe. Probably.

 

[winfield100]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

from 1 month ago
"Tesla has ‘about 11,000’ energy storage projects underway in Puerto Rico, says Elon Musk"
an "oh, by the way" update we scaled up from a teeny tiny in Samoa on island of Ta'u, and then Kaua'i, next that VPP in SW Australia w/50,000 houses (ongoing) and now island of Puerto Rico,....and what is North America, but a larger island..... (its a theory and you asked)

 

[bdy0627]

I don't think I'm confused. I am certainly not comparing Apple to Tesla as companies - I'm just opining on the narrative that Tesla is deliberately misleading investors, as something I don't think is true - and the broader narrative that all of this negativity on Twitter, CNBC or wherever, is driving down the price is objectively not true.

I think it's naive to think that all of the negative media coverage is not affecting investor sentiment of TSLA. TSLA clearly over-promised and under-delivered on their ramp targets during the model 3 ramp, and liquidity has taken a huge hit as a result. However, it's looking more and more like Tesla has finally caught up to their target, or is very very close, yet the media is still treating Tesla as if they are incompetent at production, safety, and quality control. The last piece on CNBC with Lopez, another reporter with close ties to Chanos, and a Yale dean with ties to Chanos, was ridiculously biased against Tesla, with no alternative perspective whatsoever. They said several times that investors should be thinking seriously about selling out of Tesla. You think that has no effect on investor sentiment?

 

[bdy0627]

Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning? It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.

6 weeks? If they sustain 5,000 over the next couple of weeks, it might not be a short burn, but I don't think it will be pleasant to be short TSLA.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Elon was referring to what he himself could affect. Ie producing 5,000 Model 3 in a week. He accomplished that. How that or anything else affects the stock price is anyone’s guess.

I agree 100% which is one of the reasons I wish he would simply stop posting stuff like that on twitter. I got a lot of dislikes for this before but I'll say it again, it's beneath him as a CEO of a major corporation to address shorts and berate reporters .... just take care of business and put out statements through the investor relations dept. at Tesla.

Other than that I think Elon is beyond fantastic! I really loved his statement regarding sleeping at the factory ...

Cheers to the longs ... patience is our friend.

 

[bdy0627]

Anyone else have their estimated delivery for a performance model 3 moved up a month today? It was showing Sep - Nov. Now, it's showing Aug - Oct.