TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[GaryW]

Pre Market up ...Thoughts on MMD continued bear attack today?

The forecast is for stormy weather given relatively low volume.

To continue the weather analogy (perhaps too far), all the trading with hot money and smart money seems to cause the extreme swings TSLA is prone to.

To affect the stock climate, a good percentage of the Tesla owners and reservation holders can add stock regularly. For example, if the ~1 million of us averaged adding $1000 per month to our positions, the would be $12B per year. The stock has a ~$50B valuation, so this would change the trajectory of the stock, rather than cause wild swings. I think it would chase off all but the most desperate hyenas trying to profit from perceived weakness.

 

[BrianZ]

Over the holidays I realized a critical logic flaw in my thinking that a short squeeze inducing type news could happen on the 4th of July holidays to coincide with fireworks and explosions.

This is faulty reasoning because if this is done during a holiday (or, a non trading day), this gives the shorts time to prepare for the short squeeze, which will likely to greatly reduce the effect of the burn. And therefore, if following this line of thinking that the purpose is to burn shorts as badly as possible, then the news would have to come on a trading day, completely unexpected, in order to inflict maximum damage from the surprise announcement and short squeeze.

I paid a few thousand dollars for this mistake. I will hopefully try to think more rationally in the future. I have sold the first thing in the morning in order to wait out this bear raid this week. Will most likely go back in Friday end of day or Monday morning during the mandatory morning dip (see, no acronyms like EOD and MMD!)

 

[W84M3]

Oh puh-lease, not the low volume again. We're at almost 5 million shares traded in 1 hour. This week is, with a close of 1,5 days, twice the volume of the previous week.

And I don't care if it comes from "shaking out weak longs"; volume is volume and a delta of $65 in 2,5 trading days is a lot.


Looks like I will transfer some cash back to my trading account and load up around 280.

 

[Sancho]

I’m not sure there is much to be gained by Elon publicly going after shorts, FUDsters and certain unsavory media.

But I do like that Elon is now giving interviews to the NYT and WSJ, etc. I think the timing of all of his publicity moves reflects his belief that Tesla has turned the corner.

It’s anybody’s guess how long it takes the market to share that belief, but profitable earnings releases should be a major catalyst. As would evidence of sustained M3 production rates.

 

[sbradbury]

The forecast is for stormy weather given relatively low volume.

To continue the weather analogy (perhaps too far), all the trading with hot money and smart money seems to cause the extreme swings TSLA is prone to.

To affect the stock climate, a good percentage of the Tesla owners and reservation holders can add stock regularly. For example, if the ~1 million of us averaged adding $1000 per month to our positions, the would be $12B per year. The stock has a ~$50B valuation, so this would change the trajectory of the stock, rather than cause wild swings. I think it would chase off all but the most desperate hyenas trying to profit from perceived weakness.

4.5 million shares in the first hour is low volume?

 

[Unpilot]

Looks like we will fall below 300.

 

[ZsoZso]

I am sure the "Smart Shorts"* use this great opportunity to cover now, it might be the last great opportunity to get out.



* unless that expression is an oxymoron...

 

[Mike Smith]

I'd be pretty surprised if Elon doesn't do a big buy here.

 

[EinSV]

I'd be pretty surprised if Elon doesn't do a big buy here.

I expect he’ll have some company ....

 

[defc0n]

rebound time?

 

[BrianZ]

I'd be pretty surprised if Elon doesn't do a big buy here.

He can't time buys. Any TSLA purchases he wants to make has to be announced well in advance.

 

[alset92977]

Well, we are new to this trading game, and don't know sh$t from shinola' about trading for gain. My wife and I believe in global warming. We want to prolong our planets health for our heirs. We believe(d) in Tesla. We bought a solar array (Solar City), ordered a new M3, and bought some stock. Simple? Sure seemed like the right thing to do. Well, Just like everything that involves $ trading, there is Sh$t flying everywhere. Who to believe, who not to believe???? I have grown discouraged. (If)Elon has a temper, and tweets threats, he is no better than Trump. (IF) Tesla is cutting quality checks that (could?) lead to issues, Can he sustain 5K/mo. and grow? Many think not. Not to mention It seems Hog oil has a stake in this. Oil has mucho $$$. I can see where they (oil) could conspire against Tesla, along with many in Washington. Greed has taken over JMO. Tesla has a long up hill climb. This AM we sold some stock. :=\ We feel blessed, and are thankful to have lived during the BEST of times. Things can get better.

This is the view from our house. We are thankful. God Bless...

 

[BrianZ]

rebound time?

I think it is a typical fake rebound that quickly turns into further price declines. I'd wait a few more hours.

 

[graphite]

Is there any way of determining the number of unique shares being traded? That would be very interesting to look at in a week like this.

Maybe there's a better / more common term - just saying that there should be a measure where the same hundred shares traded ten times count as a hundred for the day rather than a thousand. A large difference between total shares and unique shares traded would suggest manipulation. I can see how finding that value might be difficult, but with electronic trading it might be easier than I think.

 

[landis]

Absolutely, eventually. But the initial [significant] impact is to the premium segment, IMO. Once the full slate of configurations are available the 3 will eat a lot of lunches at Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, et al dealers. My responses to VA relate to the timeline of October specifically. In the time between now and 10/31, I just don't see the Model 3 catching the Camry.

Maybe not.
I've always aspired to upgrading to a Camry. Just never important enough Already enjoying my 3. ;-)

 

[ggr]

He can't time buys. Any TSLA purchases he wants to make has to be announced well in advance.

No, but he can have a trading plan in place that says "If the price drops below $300, I will buy another million shares". So long as he did that well in advance, that would be legitimate. You can have basically anything in a trading plan, so long as it's algorithmically clear.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is obviously being done by someone who doesn't care about the money - probably oil based - but I don't understand how they think this plan to break the longs' spirit is going to work. Any longs who were going to get shaken by falling prices would have sold the last time they tried this. This time there isn't even any bad news. This just seems like a last desperate attempt as Model 3 takes off.

 

[mongo]

No, but he can have a trading plan in place that says "If the price drops below $300, I will buy another million shares". So long as he did that well in advance, that would be legitimate. You can have basically anything in a trading plan, so long as it's algorithmically clear.

I thought the two recent purchases (May 5 at ~ 300, and June 12th @ ~345) were non-predestined. Otherwise why the disparate price points? Unless they were purely date triggered?

 

[Big Earl]

Well, we are new to this trading game, and don't know sh$t from shinola' about trading for gain. My wife and I believe in global warming. We want to prolong our planets health for our heirs. We believe(d) in Tesla. We bought a solar array (Solar City), ordered a new M3, and bought some stock. Simple? Sure seemed like the right thing to do. Well, Just like everything that involves $ trading, there is Sh$t flying everywhere. Who to believe, who not to believe???? I have grown discouraged. (If)Elon has a temper, and tweets threats, he is no better than Trump. (IF) Tesla is cutting quality checks that (could?) lead to issues, Can he sustain 5K/mo. and grow? Many think not. Not to mention It seems Hog oil has a stake in this. Oil has mucho $$$. I can see where they (oil) could conspire against Tesla, along with many in Washington. Greed has taken over JMO. Tesla has a long up hill climb. This AM we sold some stock. :=\ We feel blessed, and are thankful to have lived during the BEST of times. Things can get better.View attachment 314733
This is the view from our house. We are thankful. God Bless...

Don’t let the FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) rattle you. Beautiful view, by the way!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Bought some more LEAPS here at $299

I do not think that the SP will hit $275, but this will be my next purchase price.
And still saving some cash just in case the SP mit drop even kower.