TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Seems like the "bottleneck" was the paint line exit sensor not being able to handle the speed of the line, so now someone just push's a button , until the sensor can be reprogrammed.

Is this really all there was to the bottleneck? That seems too easy to solve for what was described as a problem needing a radical solution.

 

[Tslynk67]

I read it and frankly thought it was a typical hit job, very disappointing. This article read like something out of Seeking Alpha, not the NYT. Another write-up about the audacity of using a "tent" when in fact it's anything but! The use of the Sprung structure was IMHO a brilliant decision, a method to quickly add the quality space needed for the third line. Go to the Sprung website, their structures are much more like permanent installations than tents and used by the US military worldwide! Yet I don't believe the manufacturer's name was ever mentioned in this article.

And it was pretty obvious that the quotations from workers were highly selective and only included if they could be interpreted as negative. What Tesla has accomplished is a triumph in what can be done quickly, efficiently, and affordably to meet their goals and the article could have and should have reflected that.

Shame on you NYT, you're better than this.

There was a lot of negative stuff in there, which I ignore, but a lot of good info too.

 

[wipster]

There was a lot of negative stuff in there, which I ignore, but a lot of good info too.

That's the difference though, we can disseminate the good info, but the basic reader who isn't a Tesla fan(atic) like us most likely only saw the negative. I expected better, but I guess that doesn't sell papers...

 

[Todd Burch]

Shame on you NYT, you're better than this.

If you were around during the Broder debaucle your opinion of the NYT probably wouldn’t be as high!

 

[RobStark]

 

[sweter]

I read it and frankly thought it was a typical hit job, very disappointing. This article read like something out of Seeking Alpha, not the NYT. Another write-up about the audacity of using a "tent" when in fact it's anything but! The use of the Sprung structure was IMHO a brilliant decision, a method to quickly add the quality space needed for the third line. Go to the Sprung website, their structures are much more like permanent installations than tents and used by the US military worldwide! Yet I don't believe the manufacturer's name was ever mentioned in this article.

And it was pretty obvious that the quotations from workers were highly selective and only included if they could be interpreted as negative. What Tesla has accomplished is a triumph in what can be done quickly, efficiently, and affordably to meet their goals and the article could have and should have reflected that.

Shame on you NYT, you're better than this.

I disagree. While it may be interpreted as a hit piece I don't think it included any typical misinformation bits. I'd say it's a level-headed article taking a peek into the (still) new kid on the block of automotive industry.

Nowhere else before have I seen such detailed examples of bottlenecks encountered and it was super interesting and completely different to what I imagined. Amazing on one hand, but a little bit worrying on the other. Kinda like "testing in production" (or *exactly* like testing in production) in software development world. Often it works, until it doesn't.

Just because article about Tesla is not uber-bullish-with-pink-glasses-on doesn't mean it's a hit piece. Just like any drop in SP doesn't mean shorts are attacking or manipulating the market (that'd be insane power).

 

[bdy0627]

$TSLA no need to wait for official numbers clearly they already hit 5K M3 goal i can not wait for weekend to be over Expect major rally $TSLA starting tomorrow game over for shorts $400 next stop i really really love the short shorts @elonmusk

By all appearances, it looks like they have hit 5,000/week in the final week of he quarter, which is really incredible given where they were just a couple of months ago. Some things to keep in mind to influence what to expect in terms of stock movement this week:

1. This was guidance. We don't really know what the market expects, but this is probably a surprise of about 1,000. What's that worth? It's anyone's guess, but I think it's reasonable to expect the stock back up in the $370+ territory in short order. That's just my guess.
2. This is a lower volume big holiday trading week. The big guns are in the Hamptons. Even with good news, shorts still may be able to influence the trading by quite a bit. How they handle this on Monday, I don't know. Maybe they will look to create a look above and fail - let the stock run a bit and then hit it hard on the first pullback, trying to influence some longs to take profits.
3. Media coverage could very likely still be bearish, as it has been. Focus would likely be on a burst rate again. Elon can counter that with the deliveries report indicating what the sustained rate will be going into July along with Q3/Q4 production guidance. If they have met guidance this time in Q2 then the market may be more trusting of Q3/Q4 guidance from Tesla. Expect the bearish analysts to spin the news negatively.

I think this means that it is still very hard to predict what the stock will do this week. I think over the next several weeks though, as the market digests the idea that Tesla has hit mass production of the 3, we are likely to see the stock climb strongly.

 

[wipster]

If you were around during the Broder debaucle your opinion of the NYT probably wouldn’t be as high!

I was and it isn't that high, I just expected better. Maybe it was because I read it before I had my coffee...

 

[HG Wells]

5k/wk has apparently happened:
Marsalis C on Twitter

Looks like they took it down.

 

[wipster]

Looks like they took it down.

Still shows up for me.

 

[steve3]

I’ve got huge respect for @Zhelko Dimic

Fully agree.

 

[TheMrX]

Well, a bit off topic but this reached 5k/week and ''short shorts'' twitter comment just gave me an idea :

We should all go to the drug store and buy a bottle of Nair.... and mail it to stanphyl capital.

Of course with a note : ''Summer 2018 short shorts kit''

 

[kbM3]

If there is a massive squeeze and my net worth triples, I'm still not sure it would be worth having the song "short shorts' stuck in my head for several days.

 

[Richgoogol]

Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters

 

[Lhan]

Is this really all there was to the bottleneck? That seems too easy to solve for what was described as a problem needing a radical solution.

Was that regarding the paint shop ? I remember the term "radical change" and read that as Musk talk for a possible radical improvement.

 

[ZsoZso]

Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters

Wow, amazing spin-master effort to present this somehow as a negative!

A few samples:

"with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk"

"It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time"

"Money-losing Tesla has been burning through cash to produce the Model 3, and delays have also potentially compromised Tesla's first-to-market position for a mid-priced, long-range battery electric car as a host of competitors prepare to launch rival vehicles."

"The company regularly engages in so-called "burst builds," temporary periods of fast-as-possible production, which it uses to estimate how many cars it is capable of building over longer periods of time."

"Tesla has long fallen short of its production and delivery targets."

 

[wipster]

Was it just me or was the TMC website unavailable for about 20 minutes? Thought maybe you guys kicked me out for a minute...

 

[EinSV]

Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week: Reuters

Reuters Thursday just before market close:
Anonymous sources at factory report Tesla far below 5K. Stock drops ~3.5% by cob Friday.

Reuters Sunday morning: Tesla hits 5K.

Terrible journalism, securities fraud or both?

 

[sundaymorning]

“Tesla was 5 hours late in achieving its 5k goal”.

This is now the war cry shorts are spreading. Elon will reply by saying 5k each week the next 2 weeks and the goal is now 6-7k.

 

[EinSV]

“Tesla was 5 hours late in achieving its 5k goal”.

This is now the war cry shorts are spreading. Elon will reply by saying 5k each week the next 2 weeks and the goal is now 6-7k.

Yep and lots of avenues to confirm 5K/week two weeks (or more) in a row — tweet, factory tour for investors, interview, etc.