TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

Too bad the national media won't spread this nationwide:

My Model 3 Got Wrecked Today :(

 

[neroden]

Well pre-ordering a Tesla semi is similar, you can get your money refund if you don't like it. The only real difference is that you have to park some money with them.

Most large companies run with constant debt, so "parking some money" means having more debt, which costs upwards of 5% per year. This *is* significant to them.

 

[LordAstinus]

Large Tesla Powerpack project is quietly deployed without logos at new solar project in Arizona

 

[Jayjs20]

I swear, they must let it rise on purpose in order to kill it and create a bearish candle.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I swear, they must let it rise on purpose in order to kill it and create a bearish candle.

The drop matches the chart for S&P and Nasdaq, so I think this one is macro-related. That said, TSLA has already started bouncing back, unlike the broader market.

 

[TradingInvest]

I swear, they must let it rise on purpose in order to kill it and create a bearish candle.

I think this morning's rally was related to the bullish note from Guggenheim. Analyst Robert Cihra reiterated a Buy rating and $430 price target today. His note makes sense. Then the small pullback is probably because of the market pullback.

I continue to add shares and some long term calls.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Thanks for clarifying the exact number. Though it doesn't change the fact that it's nearly $1B and growing. Sunbird is making the claim that reservations don't even exist, then he has to explain nearly a billion in customer deposits. Regardless of accounting changes or orders placed, or cars in transit which is the same as orders because the car is not tipically paid for until it arrives. This is a very large and growing number. And will continue to grow with acceleration orders and deposits.

Have never made such a claim. Could you point out where you think you read it?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

No paid fudsters can answer the bolded question. If they do, they end their job because they must answer it honestly or they are breaking the law. Or they can ignore it. But no one posts all memorial day weekend who is not being paid to do so. I think it's a waste of fudsters funding to post here, but oh well.

Unfortunately I am not getting paid. But if anyone is feeling generous, I am certainly open to it.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Most large companies run with constant debt, so "parking some money" means having more debt, which costs upwards of 5% per year. This *is* significant to them.

Yes, and even for a cashed up company there's an opportunity cost.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think this morning's rally was related to the bullish note from Guggenheim. Analyst Robert Cihra reiterated a Buy rating and $430 price target today. His note makes sense. Then the small pullback is probably because of the market pullback.

I continue to add shares and some long term calls.

Analyst Is Confident on Tesla (TSLA) as Model 3 Cars Can Race Past 5K/Week by Q3:18

 

[jhm]

No paid fudsters can answer the bolded question. If they do, they end their job because they must answer it honestly or they are breaking the law. Or they can ignore it. But no one posts all memorial day weekend who is not being paid to do so. I think it's a waste of fudsters funding to post here, but oh well.

Wait. There's a law against being a paid liar on the internet?

 

[keydiver]

Electric vehicle costs: GM versus Tesla

I liked this part especially:
“The cost of making batteries is going to dictate whether you make a profit or not,” Lindland said.
Which, again, shows the value in OWNING the battery factory, instead of second-sourcing them as most other manufacturers plan on doing. Anytime there is a middleman, there is good markup.

 

[Dennisj00]

Could help decrease smoking.

I honestly can’t figure out how anyone thought putting a tank of H in a car would be great idea.

Petroleum based cars would never be approved today!

 

[Unpilot]

Petroleum based cars would never be approved today!

That's a interesting thought experiment...electric cars are dominate and the new kid on the block is ICE.

Any FUD you can think off in that situation?

 

[Causalien]

Wait. There's a law against being a paid liar on the internet?

Called advertising.
Add all those new fangled terms like SEO.

 

[LordAstinus]

I liked this part especially:
“The cost of making batteries is going to dictate whether you make a profit or not,” Lindland said.
Which, again, shows the value in OWNING the battery factory, instead of second-sourcing them as most other manufacturers plan on doing. Anytime there is a middleman, there is good markup.

It tells you about either the high intellectual calibre of most of the legacy automakers' CEOs or their known-risk-aversion. In my opinion, they are outsourcing the most critical component of EVs as a way of managing cost (however high it gets) and other forms of familiar risk. But in doing so, they are embracing other more lethal, seemingly distant, classes of danger: Structural / Existential / Political.

 

[jhm]

I'm a monthly parker next to the fabulous Fox Theater. When there is an event, the price to park usually goes up for daily parkers and I stand a good chance of finding a parking spot. But sometimes management does not anticipate an even and does not raise the daily rate. When that happens to lot fills up quickly, and I have no place to park in spite of have paid for monthly parking. I have learned the hard way that the parking price is really important to making sure that there are available parking spots. The daily parking price makes my monthly pass more valuable.

So why does this matter to Tesla reservation holders? What is the value of a reservation? It simply holds your place in line against against others who might crowd you out. If Tesla were to offer free reservations to some, but not others, it would devalue reservations for anyone considering one. If those how came before you were given free reservations, then the line is already longer than it would have been had all reservation holders had to pay. The longer the line is ahead of you, the less value your reservation holds. Moreover, you might be inclined to think that if other people got free reservations, perhaps you deserve a free reservation too. The thing that makes the reservation worth the deposit is that you know that the deposit is required of all other reservation holders. If the reservation is not worth the deposit, then you wait and allow all others who are willing to make the deposit to jump a head of you.

At some point you may see that your competitors are getting rigs that give them a 25c/mile cost advantage over you, you may appreciate that getting a reservation is worth the cost. So when Tesla does start building Semis, the value of a reservation could go back up as to back log grows. Tesla will want to be able to command a $20k deposit on reservations at that time too.

I suspect Musk understands this quite well and would not countenance a policy that would undermine the value of reservation. Sorry, bears, there's no such thing as free parking next to the Fox Theater.

 

[Dennisj00]

That's a interesting thought experiment...electric cars are dominate and the new kid on the block is ICE.

Any FUD you can think off in that situation?

More car fires, BMWs catching fire in the garage, CO poisoning in the garage . . .

 

[Mike Smith]

I think the market is going to like the Insideevs May sales numbers on Friday.

 

[kbM3]

I think the market is going to like the Insideevs May sales numbers on Friday.

InsideEvs does U.S. only though, so it won’t include Canadian.

Q2 really depends on whether or not Tesla is avoiding 200k.

@Troy is convinced they’ve already hit that, and he has crunched the numbers. Everyone else seems to think they’re waiting for Q3.