TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anticitizen13.7]

I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!

People should definitely consider this.

I bet on Elon’s vision and his drive to achieve that vision.

I would NEVER, EVER bet on specific timing stated by Elon. Every Tesla and SpaceX project has been late, often by years. Investors for the long haul (10+ years) are likely to see accomplishment. Investors expecting predictable achievements in the short term will generally be losing money.

 

[Dennisj00]

I've been a Tesla owner since 2013, and have bought 3 so far, but Elon is now on my hit list. My investment strategies for the last 5 years have been based on the information that he has given us (I listen to ever earnings call and read every earnings report). I understand that manufacturing is hard, but I expect the CEO to have a freaking clue about the ramp and the challenges they face. The fact that he has been more wrong that I thought humanly possible, has now cost me an incredible amount of money. I will get maybe half of it back if the stock recovers in the next 6 months, but I have no choice now but buy back at a huge loss naked Puts that I sold two months ago, because my account has dropped so much that even though I didn't use Margin, I am getting margin calls on my naked Puts (which don't expire for 9 more months). This would NOT have happened if Elon had been even close to accurate. After I weather this storm, I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!

Not sure you can blame this on Elon. . .

 

[Menifeer]

umm....didn't they say on the most recent Q call that they had enough cash on hand to get to June with the Model 3 ramp up? That was their buffer.....seems like they will just make it, so all the "needing more capital raise" stuff is FUD/manipulation.....

If that's what they said, it must be true

 

[ggies07]

If that's what they said, it must be true

maybe not, but that's the last thing they said since they talked on the Q and I haven't seen where they picked up the phone and chit-chatted with us, smartass!

So we'll just have to wait until the next Q to get an update....

 

[Tenable]

I've been a Tesla owner since 2013, and have bought 3 so far, but Elon is now on my hit list. My investment strategies for the last 5 years have been based on the information that he has given us (I listen to ever earnings call and read every earnings report). I understand that manufacturing is hard, but I expect the CEO to have a freaking clue about the ramp and the challenges they face. The fact that he has been more wrong that I thought humanly possible, has now cost me an incredible amount of money. I will get maybe half of it back if the stock recovers in the next 6 months, but I have no choice now but buy back at a huge loss naked Puts that I sold two months ago, because my account has dropped so much that even though I didn't use Margin, I am getting margin calls on my naked Puts (which don't expire for 9 more months). This would NOT have happened if Elon had been even close to accurate. After I weather this storm, I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!

I feel your pain, I've had blind faith far too many times only to get burned. These burns have been very very very costly. With that said I believe Elon does the best he can and works to deliver as quickly as is possible.

He delivers a ton of value to shareholders. If I had only purchased shares early on I would have done very well. But I was experimenting with leverage, options and throwing the kitchen sink at Tesla with terrible timing. I lost crazy amounts of money. This latest pullback has cost me quite a bit as well, though I am better prepared now.

Am I annoyed that TSLA is late even beyond my expectations which gave (I thought) a very generous buffer? Yes. Am I annoyed about the money I've lost. Yes. Am I a bit stressed since my investment is time sensitive. Yes. But do I blame Elon? No. He can't be held responsible for the timing of my investment decisions. Now if he runs this ship into the ground, it's on him and I say we bring out the pitchforks. But as long as he's bringing shareholders massive value every year I'll take responsibility for my actions and he will reap the rewards or failures of his.

It also doesn't hurt that the world becomes slightly better (imo) every day as a result of his work.

I hope things work out for you, we are all long together one way or another. Your pain is shared to some degree by everyone here. I'm 100% in options so I feel it more than most. If you want to avoid a margin call might I suggest trying to roll farther dated and farther oom? Also you can buy far oom puts and attempt to alleviate the pressure if you don't want to buy them back. Not advice, and I don't know your positions. But these may be helpful "options."

 

[N5329K]

People should definitely consider this.

I bet on Elon’s vision and his drive to achieve that vision.

I would NEVER, EVER bet on specific timing stated by Elon. Every Tesla and SpaceX project has been late, often by years. Investors for the long haul (10+ years) are likely to see accomplishment. Investors expecting predictable achievements in the short term will generally be losing money.

This is true. You can rely on Elon's pronouncements if you insert the words, "I hope..." in front of all of them. They will likely come to pass, some time or other. But don't ever bet on his dates.
Robin

 

[madodel]

Probably opens at 280 tomorrow morning? Remember never bet against elon.

I hope to have cleared some cash for tomorrow or Thursday so I'm hoping this stays for another day or two. Lower is better at this point. This is an insane sale so have to make the best of it. Next week we start going up again.

 

[Krugerrand]

From the photo that is one ugly car. Maybe okay for a test bed, but who is going to drive something that looks like it was out of a bad ghostbusters knockoff?

Ghostbusters.

 

[BornToFly]

Not sure you can blame this on Elon. . .

He said with extreme confidence that he would produce 5k/week by December. Then by Q1. I sold the Puts before the more recent push back, a target that he appears to be missing again. Do you think the SP would be under 300 if he was producing 5k/week like he stated with extreme confidence just a few months ago? How do we not blame this on Elon? If he had said we probably won't hit 2,500/week until sometime in Q2, my investment strategy would have been different. He is brilliant and will save the world, but you can't believe a thing he says during the earnings calls.

 

[elasalle]

He said with extreme confidence that he would produce 5k/week by December. Then by Q1. I sold the Puts before the more recent push back, a target that he appears to be missing again. Do you think the SP would be under 300 if he was producing 5k/week like he stated with extreme confidence just a few months ago? How do we not blame this on Elon? If he had said we probably won't hit 2,500/week until sometime in Q2, my investment strategy would have been different. He is brilliant and will save the world, but you can't believe a thing he says during the earnings calls.

If you sold PUTS, by the time they expire, you might be able to sell the same strikes again for the same prices (once this goes back up).

 

[BornToFly]

If you sold PUTS, by the time they expire, you might be able to sell the same strikes again for the same prices (once this goes back up).

Yes and that will erase some of my losses, unless the stock drops again after that, forcing me to buy them back at a loss a second time, which would double my losses....

 

[elasalle]

Yes and that will erase some of my losses, unless the stock drops again after that, forcing me to buy them back at a loss a second time....

You lost the money others gave you to take the risk, but actually you bought the stock at a lower price compared to when you entered the trade a while back


Edit:
When SP at 320, I sell a PUT for 25, knowing either it expires or it gets exercised for 295(which is OK for me at that point in time). Using PUTS knowing the two outcomes, not sure if others are using for more leverage, or guaranteed profits.

Anything I am missing in this PUTS setup?

 

[joeinslw]

I understand that some of you feel that investors shouldn't trust Elon's words or dates when it comes to Tesla cars. Is it possible he believes what he is told and is just passing on this information, or do you think this info is coming directly from him?
Reason why I ask is because in 2010 he put his own personal money up to save Tesla when they were going belly up then, saving hundreds of jobs at the factory.
So I wonder if he is a gullible guy, or is he just the lier some of you suggest he is?
After being 100% invested in tsla stock listening to every report and wondering myself every quarter when they were going to start making money?
However at the same time with every breath I take I am truly a Tesla believer, a believer in what that car can do, what that car should have done if GM hadn't destroyed every one of the EV1's they made. At the same time lying to their lessees that they were going to update them and make them better, but what GM did to all of US was to take away our choices.
I sincerely don't want the latter to be true with Tesla.

 

[BornToFly]

I understand that some of you feel that investors shouldn't trust Elon's words or dates when it comes to Tesla cars. Is it possible he believes what he is told and is just passing on this information, or do you think this info is coming directly from him?
Reason why I ask is because in 2010 he put his own personal money up to save Tesla when they were going belly up then, saving hundreds of jobs at the factory.
So I wonder if he is a gullible guy, or is he just the lier some of you suggest he is?

I honestly don't know. He is the CEO, and he is frequently on the factory floor. His IQ is probably through the roof. He should know what is going on. I don't know if he says information that is completely wrong because he is innocently delusional, or if he is trying to manipulate public perception for short term gains (supplier contracts, financing, capital raises, etc).

 

[JRP3]

So I wonder if he is a gullible guy, or is he just the lier some of you suggest he is?

I would say neither, just optimistic/unrealistic as to what it takes to achieve a goal in a specific time period.

 

[Mkorpal]

Looks like I picked a good day to get really busy at the day job. Easy come, easy go, I suppose.

Was there actual news or just a bunch of fluff to get us to where we are? Sorry, I don't have time to run through a million posts.

 

[traxila]

Elon is trying his best.

If you ever thought that TSLA was not a risky play, then you were dead wrong. How could single stock option plays not be risky? What is it about Tesla’s game plan that is not risky? The starting a car company from scratch deal? Or perhaps the planned disruption of several trillion dollar global industries that may not agree? Am I the only one that wonders about Musk’s security detail?

I am in the hole. Bought more today. Those calls are in the hole. Tomorrow looks like it may be ugly...again. Market sucks and I am too busy to do things properly...like short FB which would have helped a lot today. I may lose another 40K tomorrow, or more. And if I lose it all the only person to blame is me.

Deal with it. If you can’t take it, then dollar cost average on a regular basis into index options in cash and sleep well at night. You want to gamble? Lose with a grin or don’t bother in the first place.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

He said with extreme confidence that he would produce 5k/week by December. Then by Q1. I sold the Puts before the more recent push back, a target that he appears to be missing again. Do you think the SP would be under 300 if he was producing 5k/week like he stated with extreme confidence just a few months ago? How do we not blame this on Elon? If he had said we probably won't hit 2,500/week until sometime in Q2, my investment strategy would have been different. He is brilliant and will save the world, but you can't believe a thing he says during the earnings calls.

This is how I felt end of 2015 and beginning of 2016. If anything, Elon's communication has been more transparent this time. But execution seems to have been worse than even Model X. It's frustrating, but he is who he is...

Check Tenable's ideas, if you call option trader (for manual transaction placing) at your brokerage, he should be able to calculate impact on your margin if you create put spread (e.g. buy $150-$200 put with the same strike like original naked put). May be much cheaper way to enable you to sit this one out. It's still going to be loss of some sort as you will be buying puts when they're expensive, but it will remove some 50-100 of margin requirement per put sold . Option trader can probably put a multi-trade strategy in place for you, if you want to move options out and create a spread at the same time, so this all execute as one transaction.
With TD Direct in Canada, this would cost me $39 per transaction, instead of $10, not sure how other brokerages work, and if they have option traders on staff... Just to calculate change in margin if buying oom put, and impact, that would be free.

 

[traxila]

Looks like I picked a good day to get really busy at the day job. Easy come, easy go, I suppose.

Was there actual news or just a bunch of fluff to get us to where we are? Sorry, I don't have time to run through a million posts.

Macro sucks. Technology getting hammered. Investigation into Model X crash. Downgrading of Tesla bonds. Intense and negative media scrutiny of Model 3 production or lack of it. Bears delirious with joy and rampaging in the streets.

 

[Mkorpal]

Macro sucks. Technology getting hammered. Investigation into Model X crash. Downgrading of Tesla bonds. Intense and negative media scrutiny of Model 3 production or lack of it. Bears delirious with joy and rampaging in the streets.

So... Nothing. I tune everything out with the exception of Model 3 ramp.