Hahahaha. Tell that to the folks in Chernobyl or Fukushima. There is a genuine reason it is scary.
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This is incorrect. 244 MWh, excluding the South Australia big battery, is more than a 160% increase over 143MWh in Q4.
In Q4, we deployed 143 MWh of energy storage products, growing 45% from Q4 2016. http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...A-CB3CDC1B919F/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q.pdf
In 2017, we deployed 358 MWh of energy storage products. Tesla - Annual Report
What a cringe worthy call 
As I’ve said before, Musk better be sure of himself. I don’t mind arrogance as long as you’re right. I’m still leaning toward the idea that he is.
Don’t know what my strategy is now. Still holding onto ALB and not sure if I want to hold that for it’s earnings report. I can’t decide if I think TSLA will go up substantially before Q2 deliveries/earnings or not. I do believe a runup during Q3 is very likely, though.
Hopefully he hasn’t burned any bridges he might need in the markets.
As I’ve said before, Musk better be sure of himself. I don’t mind arrogance as long as you’re right. I’m still leaning toward the idea that he is.Don’t know what my strategy is now. Still holding onto ALB and not sure if I want to hold that for it’s earnings report. I can’t decide if I think TSLA will go up substantially before Q2 deliveries/earnings or not. I do believe a runup during Q3 is very likely, though.
Hopefully he hasn’t burned any bridges he might need in the markets.
God Emperor Elon Musk. This guy does stuff that no other CEO on the entire planet could get away with.
He basically said, "If you aren't with me for the long haul, you are free to go". Never really heard that before.
Elon is like a sculptor, slowly chiseling away the weak hands from the core Tesla shareholders.
He basically said, "If you aren't with me for the long haul, you are free to go". Never really heard that before.
Elon is like a sculptor, slowly chiseling away the weak hands from the core Tesla shareholders.
Great QR and CC, I like how Elon handled those dumb questions. There are some very good comments from Tesla team, I guess shorts won't even recognize that those are bullish.
1. Cobalt - we discussed this in the past, I didn't worry about Cobalt price going up, I worried that big shorts buying all the Cobalt and leave none for Tesla. One big short was openly calling everyone to do this. Tesla knew this issue for years, they must have been working on this. Today they confirmed that they can live without much Cobalt. JB said they have been working on this for years. I hope those who hoard Cobalt will learn the lesson, don't bully Elon. This will be a big problem for Tesla's competitors. I think they still need Cobalt.
2. Chip and AI software is going well. Autonomous driving likely coming by end of 2019. Though it will not be officially released as full autonomous, I think the advanced autopilot will work really well by then. That's what I want.
3. Model 3 production is going well. The plan is to achieve 5000 per week in 2 months. In the past I worried that they completely stop production for unexpected reasons. This is good news to me.
4. Tesla's lead on Semi is huge. This is a very large market. It will take market shares from trains and all other Semi trucks. This combined with the coming autonomous driving, Tesla will be capable to get into shipping market with no competitor.
5. They revised margin to ~20% instead of 25%, that's strange. But next year target is still 25%.
6. Average selling price on Model 3 is higher than expected. I think this should have been expected. Most people ordered all the options including the 19 inch wheels.
7. They didn't want to talk about the Model 3 take rate, to me this is not a problem, I expected the take rate to be very low, because most people are waiting for all wheel drive, short range, or performance. This car will sell itself. I think the wait list will well pass one million by early 2019. Now I have first hand experience with the Model 3, I can confidently say at minimum each car will lead to another 20 sales. Those 20 will lead to another 200. Legacy car companies are in big trouble, especially BMW, VW, Mercedes, and also those lower end like Toyota, Honda. The society is switching to EV with autonomous features. Those legacy car companies are not ready to compete. This is coming very fast. Those people who test drove my car will stop considering ICE cars.
1. Cobalt - we discussed this in the past, I didn't worry about Cobalt price going up, I worried that big shorts buying all the Cobalt and leave none for Tesla. One big short was openly calling everyone to do this. Tesla knew this issue for years, they must have been working on this. Today they confirmed that they can live without much Cobalt. JB said they have been working on this for years. I hope those who hoard Cobalt will learn the lesson, don't bully Elon. This will be a big problem for Tesla's competitors. I think they still need Cobalt.
2. Chip and AI software is going well. Autonomous driving likely coming by end of 2019. Though it will not be officially released as full autonomous, I think the advanced autopilot will work really well by then. That's what I want.
3. Model 3 production is going well. The plan is to achieve 5000 per week in 2 months. In the past I worried that they completely stop production for unexpected reasons. This is good news to me.
4. Tesla's lead on Semi is huge. This is a very large market. It will take market shares from trains and all other Semi trucks. This combined with the coming autonomous driving, Tesla will be capable to get into shipping market with no competitor.
5. They revised margin to ~20% instead of 25%, that's strange. But next year target is still 25%.
6. Average selling price on Model 3 is higher than expected. I think this should have been expected. Most people ordered all the options including the 19 inch wheels.
7. They didn't want to talk about the Model 3 take rate, to me this is not a problem, I expected the take rate to be very low, because most people are waiting for all wheel drive, short range, or performance. This car will sell itself. I think the wait list will well pass one million by early 2019. Now I have first hand experience with the Model 3, I can confidently say at minimum each car will lead to another 20 sales. Those 20 will lead to another 200. Legacy car companies are in big trouble, especially BMW, VW, Mercedes, and also those lower end like Toyota, Honda. The society is switching to EV with autonomous features. Those legacy car companies are not ready to compete. This is coming very fast. Those people who test drove my car will stop considering ICE cars.
dc_h
Active Member
I think Elon was pretty definitive. Organic growth is fine and white knights welcome. Quarter whores, shorts and white shoe wall streeters can go scratch. He’s got a plan to fund growth without Wall Street. Could be good long term, slightly lower growth medium term, but investing more wisely and maintaining better control.
What a cringe worthy call
Don’t know what my strategy is now. Still holding onto ALB and not sure if I want to hold that for it’s earnings report. I can’t decide if I think TSLA will go up substantially before Q2 deliveries/earnings or not. I do believe a runup during Q3 is very likely, though.
Hopefully he hasn’t burned any bridges he might need in the markets.
What Elon did is not arrogance. If you are a long time shareholder, you probably know some of those analysts have been trying for years to kill Tesla. When they ask questions, they are not really asking questions, they are trying to force Elon to say negative things about Tesla.
Not quite. They forcing Elon to say anything, so that irrespective of what he says, they will spin it negatively.
Lets say he says the conversion rate as of now is 30% (which IMHO is a great uptake given that they are only selling the highest priced model with one interior color) , the headlines tomorrow will be, "70% of reservations holders have lost interest in buying a Tesla".
dc_h
Active Member
Wow, excluding one time items cash flow would have only been negative 120 million. If hat is the darkest hour of cash burn, that is awesome.
Sorry if other have commented, but this seems monumental.
From the letter:
Cash outflow from operating activities in Q1 2018 was $398 million primarily due to an increase in inventory and accounts receivable balances as a result of the timing of deliveries. Higher number of Model S and Model X vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 2018 compared to Q4 2017 had a negative impact of about $120 million on our working capital. Additionally, due to a substantial increase in our deliveries in the last few days of the quarter, our accounts receivables negatively impacted our operating cash flow by $169 million in Q1. Both of these factors provided cash inflows during April.
Sorry if other have commented, but this seems monumental.
From the letter:
Cash outflow from operating activities in Q1 2018 was $398 million primarily due to an increase in inventory and accounts receivable balances as a result of the timing of deliveries. Higher number of Model S and Model X vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 2018 compared to Q4 2017 had a negative impact of about $120 million on our working capital. Additionally, due to a substantial increase in our deliveries in the last few days of the quarter, our accounts receivables negatively impacted our operating cash flow by $169 million in Q1. Both of these factors provided cash inflows during April.
SunCatcher
Member
Elon Musk has had to put up with bullies all his life, and has the scars to prove it. I think that he is more and more saying "Enough. I know where ya'll are coming from; with your journalistic sensationalism over every single solitary event that occurs within Tesla. And the fact that these shortcomings from other manufacturers get a free pass, day in and day out. I know your game.You have made it clear that you are not with us, but are against us. We here at Tesla have a mission, and much work to do. Why should I bother with patience and pretense with you people any longer? Next question."
And it's true. We've all seen their cards, as they've been laid out on the table for some time now.
Intentional Tesla is a software company joke? (swim lanes are a thing in agile style software development)
It's not even a hypothetical: that article exists!
I don't blame Tesla at all for shying away from answering questions that have no material impact on anything.
dc_h
Active Member
The question is a setup. Schonelucht has a good estimate of uptake. It sounds low until you think about the limited choices and site unseen thing. Maybe 20% buy the current model site unseen, but some of those 20% may have some timing issues. 20% May be waiting for AWD performance and 20% for premium short range and the rest just waiting to test drive. The reviews, especially from owners are awesome. Wall Street thinks financial engineering is the long term game, but innovation and leadership is more important for disrupters. So suck it Tony, you didn’t understand Apple and you don’t get Tesla. I’m sure you missed every game changer of the last decade.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Most analysts are on the sell side. The ones buying shares are on the buy side. Difference explained here. Just look at Goldman, they have a $195 target price, yet they own 1 million shares as of Dec 31 2017 (last report), up 476k in 2017. TSLA wasn't anywhere near $195 over the whole 2017 but GS kept buying shares, their asset manager obviously doesn't give a **** about that target that David Tamberrino set. In my book, money talks and bull**** walks, the guy who bought the 1 million share is the one putting money on the table. I have a pretty good idea what Tamberrino is, but I'll let you draw you own conclusions.
BTW, you definitely should short more now that Elon has completely ****ed up this chance. Plus they've burned the bridge with the capital market, definitely going bankwupt for sure. I don't know when, but your short is as safe as it can be, don't cover until it goes to 0, I'm sure you'll be rewarded
Esme Es Mejor
Member
You can’t set aside Musk’s (questionable) tone and (refreshing) candor. He didn’t ignore those questions— he gave the very candid answer that they were boring & boneheaded. And they were.
1. Sacconaghi’s question about guidance had already been answered. Tesla is getting to 5k as fast as they can, then fine-tuning the process to improve margins. When to expand to 10k would depend on how the 5k process went. They weren’t committing to a date on it.
I’m a fairly conservative person, so I would have preferred that Musk simply re-stated that, but I understand why he didn’t. The price he & Tesla will pay for that tone is unknown at this time. It definitely concerns me. It also tells me he’s all-in.
2. The question about take rate really was a garbage question. Trying to use people waiting for AWD, white interior, or SR battery as a sign of lack of demand is intellectually dishonest & insulting. The analyst deserved the answer he got.
That said, I’m a more conservative person than Musk (I’m not disrupting any industries). I wish he had defined the take rate as 100% minus anyone who cancelled their reservation after getting the opportunity to configure— which is probably greater than zero, but is certainly minuscule. So, something like 99%.
TLDR— Musk’s candor was delightful & refreshing. His tone was questionable, but we’ll have to see how much damage it did. A short dip to load up on cheap shares would be great. A permanent burning of bridges would be much more worrisome.
Yeah, the youtuber also had 8 prepared questions instead of one.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This isn't even a tiny bit worrisome.
I ask this question again: Does anybody really think a Wall Street bank will forgo 10s or 100s of millions of dollars in fees if Tesla does decide to do a capital raise on Wall Street because one of their analyst was dropped on quarterly conference call? Or because Elon Musk was rude to one of their analyst?
The average Wall Street banker would sell his mother to Elon for less. Lets get real.
All the firms on Wall Street will compete for Tesla's business if Elon comes calling.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I wonder if Gali knew he could ask that many questions. I was expecting him to get cut off after 1-2 questions just like other people asking questions. But he didn't, and he didn't appear surprised that he wasn't cut off, and kept asking more questions like he had prepared for it. Wonder why...
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
A more relevant question would be "How many have asked for their deposits back, and why?" I suspect that percentage is a trivial fraction the 70% that has been suggested. I haven't configured yet, and if I never do, it'll be because I purchase a Model X instead.
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