TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

That reasoning makes Porsche sound so daft, that I thought I better provide the source:

Porsche says ‘Tesla’s Superchargers are not sustainable’, they will charge more for their own charging network

I am really disappointed about that statement from Porsche. Not because its right or wrong but because it is a prove that they do not understand the business model of BEVs.

“Yes, but it was only free for a while. You can not run things like this, you have to earn money from these services.”

Even worse they want to make money from charging like with gas which is another miss off the dynamics and business Model of the electrification of transportation and the role charging plays other than gas stations played for ICEs.

I thought they are smarter than this. Truly disappointing. Another prove how far Elon is ahead and that Porsche today still does not understand what Elon defined 10 years ago ....

 

[roblab]

If Tesla didn't deliver over Q3 number (55.8k), SP will drop - may be all the way to 260. It would also make Q4 Earnings not that rosy.

May be I should wait for the delivery numbers before investing in highly leveraged calls for Q4 Earnings.

Or, buy, and stay long. Works for me. It would have to drop a lot to damage my $19 shares.

Like many others, including Elon, I believe shorts are more or less leeches. I would be happy to get out of the stock market and just support Tesla.

 

[anthonyj]

Anyone think we’ll see a surprise ER on Jan 9th? It’s such an Elon/Ellison move. They’re probably plotting it right now

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Anyone think we’ll see a surprise ER on Jan 9th? It’s such an Elon/Ellison move. They’re probably plotting it right now

What’s an ER.

 

[brian45011]

Note that there are three upcoming Q4 events:

• 8-K: Q4 delivery report, due around Jan 3.
• 8-K: Q4 update letter and earnings call, due around Feb 7
• 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around Feb 23

Notes:

• The due dates are based on Q4/2017, but note that 2017 reporting was complicated by the Solar City acquisition, which was executed in Q4/2017 - so Q4/2018 could be done faster..

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/c39a8fea-6b4f-48e3-a16d-75b96203a286

 

[EVNow]

Or, buy, and stay long. Works for me. It would have to drop a lot to damage my $19 shares.

Or like me buy and stay long - and buy calls.

I don't think I'll ever sell my $26 shares. My kids will get them or they go to charity.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone think we’ll see a surprise ER on Jan 9th? It’s such an Elon/Ellison move. They’re probably plotting it right now

Given that its the annual report, highly unlikely they can pull it off. I expect it earlier than last year - similar to normal quarterly reports. Last week of Jan or first of Feb. I'm not planning to buy 100% of March calls I want to buy until mid of Feb.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Today's edition of The Toronto Star, WHEELS section, included a full two-page write up on the 2019 Audi E-Tron. Author, Norris McDonald, was gushingly positive over this EV. As more OEM products come to market this will be the norm, good reviews, no compromises, a coming of age of the EV, not as an EV, but as simply a mainstream car. The World is slowly changing for the better.

Personally, I like the overall shape of the Audi, except for the unnecessary mammoth grill. There is no indication from the exterior of the Audi that this is an EV, looks like Audi purposefully (and correctly IMO) stayed within its current design architecture.

I should mention that Norris does not mention the Audi as a Tesla Killer, and rightly so. The Audi E-Tron reported to be available in Canada the 2nd half 2019 requires 27% more kW/h battery yet is 22% slower (0 - 100km/hr), with 80% less range, at 33% greater cost*, than my Tesla M3 RWD driven since July 2018. (*not even including the Ontario EV rebate which has since expired). And although Audi claims fast charging (80% charge in 30 minutes) is possible, there are currently no such fast charges available in all of Canada, unlike the multitude of Tesla Superchargers for my M3.

 

[AZRI11]

View attachment 364727

I just wanted to point out to all that Sonnenfeld wasn't trying to congratulate Musk for his cunning. Rather, he was hoping to stir up the SEC and create ill-will towards Musk with these comments. Unfortunately, Jim Cramer did something similar when he remarked (before the SEC became involved in the funding secured controversy) that Musk had nothing to fear from the SEC because the agency was so overworked it would take years for them to get around to doing anything and then it would be something light. By making this comment, Cramer was calling the SEC impotent and challenging them in the worst kind of way to do something. They had to respond to Musk in some way after Cramer's remarks. Sonnefeld was trying to do the same thing today.

Most of us know that Jeff Sonnenfeld is a cohort of Jim Chanos. He was one of the participants in the infamous Linette Lopez declares her innocence CNBC interview that also featured Chanos ally (and million-dollar-book deal recipient) Bethany McLean. In that interview, CNBC never divulged that Sonnenfeld or McLean had any connection to short-seller Jim Chanos. The two paraded as "experts" and did everything they could to smear Musk. It was perhaps the lowest of the many lows in ethics that CNBC achieved in the past 12 months.

The SEC was so quick in part because of Elon being honest to a fault. Told the truth to investigators. That's why this was the quickest case ever opened and closed. Democrats will always be on GM's side. Tax credits for ev's only happened because of GM. Going forward Elon should refrain from mentioning the possibility of tesla operating a closed GM factory. Do not underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups

 

[brian45011]

Tesla produced 53k model 3s in q3, and I think it is fairly certain they could blow that out of the water in q4 if they chose to. I am substantially unclear about why they did not pull more demand levers, particularly leasing, in order to produce and sell somewhere closer to 65k this quarter. If they come out under 60k I am going to be puzzled by the decision to do so.

All the gross profit on an outright sale is recognized when the vehicle is delivered. For direct leases, gross profit is recognized over the term of the lease. Leases by third party financial institutions are out right sales but there has been no indication yet that Tesla is willing to guarantee residual values to "banking affiliate partners" for M3s.

It's crucial that TSLA report GAAP net income for 4Q18 at around the same magnitude or higher than in 3Q18.

 

[Words of HABIT]

For anyone who thinks they can outsmart Mr.Market, take a look at last weeks' TSLA chart. Nobody foresaw that. Nobody. I can't even land a Lunar Lander on that baby! It sure is nice to be a Tesla long.

I have a weakness for salty snacks and keep them in the upper cupboard with doors tied with a skipping rope and a skull & cross bones as a reminder to eat healthy. Don't laugh, it works. I consider my TSLA holdings to be in that upper cupboard. I'm not selling to preserve my financial health. Sometimes when the Mr.Market throws its nasty wrath at all things TSLA the thought to sell may cross my mind, if ever so briefly. Then I remember the upper cupboard and what's important.

 

[anthonyj]

Can’t wait for next week

Insider buying: Larry Ellison 100,000 shares every single day

 

[Pezpunk]

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/c39a8fea-6b4f-48e3-a16d-75b96203a286

connect the dots for me please ... that's a 311 page document, and i'm not sure which page the punchline is on.

 

[Pezpunk]

For anyone who thinks they can outsmart Mr.Market, take a look at last weeks' TSLA chart. Nobody foresaw that. Nobody. I can't even land a Lunar Lander on that baby! It sure is nice to be a Tesla long.
View attachment 364729

I have a weakness for salty snacks and keep them in the upper cupboard with doors tied with a skipping rope and a skull & cross bones as a reminder to eat healthy. Don't laugh, it works. I consider my TSLA holdings to be in that upper cupboard. I'm not selling to preserve my financial health. Sometimes when the Mr.Market throws its nasty wrath at all things TSLA the thought to sell may cross my mind, if ever so briefly. Then I remember the upper cupboard and what's important.
View attachment 364730

maybe i'm a noob, but is it really that hard? i sold a bunch at $372 and bought a bunch at $300. seems easy to make money when a stock insists on bouncing up and down a 25%+ range all the friggin time. as long as you're not playing a game where you're putting deadlines into the mix, then how can you lose?

 

[winfield100]

Many were negative before that. Go all the way back to the NYT Broder fiasco for example, even earlier to the Roadster days.

Speaking of the Broder fiasco, remembering history.
About February 9th, 2013 John Broder of the New York Times drove a Tesla S85 from somewhere around Washington DC to a bit North of New York City.
He had problems, drove in circles, "forgot to charge" etc.
This is when there was __ONE__ Supercharger about 110 miles north at the Delaware Interstate 95 rest area so an S-60 could not do the run, 6 years ago. to new york city easily
Broder complained about freezing cold, running out of juice, etc., forgetting /not realizing he was not driving a car, but a supercomputer with a datalogger and GPS, wrote a scathing article in the New York Times trashing Tesla etc.

The local Electric car club, EVADC.org and a bunch of Tesla owners, enthusiasts and EV owners got together the next weekend on Saturday, 2/16/2013 (February 16th, 2013) at the Tesla service center off Gude drive in Rockville, Maryland USA.

One guy drove down from New York, organizing it, coffee, bagels, donuts and comraderie was shared.
One Tesla was set up to "auto tweet" the interior temperature "a comfy xx.x degree's" using the actual temps for those following the trip in "real time".

8 Tesla's took off late that morning, one was a young couple who had heard bout it and decided to go long for a lark and "funsies".

They all went to the Delaware supercharger and there, the 4, S-85's continued the trip.
the S-60's could not at that time due to no superchargers at reasonable increments at that time
(back before you could transcontinental the US)
here is a (face redacted) picture of the 8 Tesla's just before the trip.
No problems were had by anyone and all temps were a "comfy" 72.x degrees in "'real time'"
(6 short years ago! log phase growth phase has begun)

 

[adiggs]

Anyone think we’ll see a surprise ER on Jan 9th? It’s such an Elon/Ellison move. They’re probably plotting it right now

No, not really. It takes a lot of effort for a large company to close and settle the books at the end of a quarter. Even more for the end of the year. One of the smaller indicators that I'm looking for in Tesla's maturation is a sufficiently mature accounting process that enables them to schedule their ER's ahead of time, in perpetuity. One company I'm invested in has their earnings report on the 3rd Thursday of the first month of the quarter. The actual call time varies by 30 minutes - 2:00 or 2:30 pacific time - but you can plot out on the calendar when the ER will happen every quarter right now.

I don't think this is a particular objective worthy of a lot of Tesla focus (build more cars, build more capacity to build cars, is what I prefer they focus on), but a company of Tesla's size should also be able to walk, chew gum, and tell us about it all at the same time. I would very much like to see the earnings announcement moved from early in the 2nd month, to late in the first month.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No, not really. It takes a lot of effort for a large company to close and settle the books at the end of a quarter. Even more for the end of the year. One of the smaller indicators that I'm looking for in Tesla's maturation is a sufficiently mature accounting process that enables them to schedule their ER's ahead of time, in perpetuity. One company I'm invested in has their earnings report on the 3rd Thursday of the first month of the quarter. The actual call time varies by 30 minutes - 2:00 or 2:30 pacific time - but you can plot out on the calendar when the ER will happen every quarter right now.

I don't think this is a particular objective worthy of a lot of Tesla focus (build more cars, build more capacity to build cars, is what I prefer they focus on), but a company of Tesla's size should also be able to walk, chew gum, and tell us about it all at the same time. I would very much like to see the earnings announcement moved from early in the 2nd month, to late in the first month.

Maybe instead of going straight for the Alien Dreadnaught, Elon should have automated all the accounting.

 

[abasile]

Wow, hard to believe it's already been almost six years since John Broder trashed Tesla in the NYT! I followed the whole thing with great interest here on TMC.

The sad thing is, after the Broder incident, I don't think the NYT ever did anything to repair their credibility in the eyes of the Tesla/EV community. Until Tesla buys advertisements in their paper, which may never happen, I don't think they'll consistently have the motivation to put Tesla in a positive light. Same issue across much of the mainstream media.

Speaking of the Broder fiasco, remembering history.
About February 9th, 2013 John Broder of the New York Times drove a Tesla S85 from somewhere around Washington DC to a bit North of New York City.
He had problems, drove in circles, "forgot to charge" etc.
This is when there was __ONE__ Supercharger about 110 miles north at the Delaware Interstate 95 rest area so an S-60 could not do the run, 6 years ago. to new york city easily
Broder complained about freezing cold, running out of juice, etc., forgetting /not realizing he was not driving a car, but a supercomputer with a datalogger and GPS, wrote a scathing article in the New York Times trashing Tesla etc.

The local Electric car club, EVADC.org and a bunch of Tesla owners, enthusiasts and EV owners got together the next weekend on Saturday, 2/16/2013 (February 16th, 2013) at the Tesla service center off Gude drive in Rockville, Maryland USA.

One guy drove down from New York, organizing it, coffee, bagels, donuts and comraderie was shared.
One Tesla was set up to "auto tweet" the interior temperature "a comfy xx.x degree's" using the actual temps for those following the trip in "real time".

8 Tesla's took off late that morning, one was a young couple who had heard bout it and decided to go long for a lark and "funsies".

They all went to the Delaware supercharger and there, the 4, S-85's continued the trip.
the S-60's could not at that time due to no superchargers at reasonable increments at that time
(back before you could transcontinental the US)
here is a (face redacted) picture of the 8 Tesla's just before the trip.
No problems were had by anyone and all temps were a "comfy" 72.x degrees in "'real time'"
(6 short years ago! log phase growth phase has begun)

 

[Fact Checking]

.

No, not really. It takes a lot of effort for a large company to close and settle the books at the end of a quarter. Even more for the end of the year.

While January 9 is not realistic, note that the Q4 update letter and earnings call expected at around February 7 is not annual but quarterly.

The Q4 update letter could, in principle, be released a few days earlier - like they released the Q3 ER 10 days earlier: October 24 instead of November 3.

The audited annual 10-K report will be filed a couple of weeks later - last year's 10-K was filed on February 23.

 

[avoigt]

(...) "Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer from the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisberg-Essen in Germany said the Model 3 will become the biggest selling electric car in Europe and Germany next year. Europe will buy 100,000 Model 3s in 2019, he said." (...)

With confirmed 3k/w 3s arriving in Europe in February they will deliver about 150k 3s to Europe unless they reduce European delivery which would be the first time ever they reduce delivery. Thats not likely but we rather should assume if production ramp goes well in 2019 that European delivery will increase instead in particular if supplies allow it and the MR and SR 3 is available.

(...) “(Tesla) sees Europe as a very significant market opportunity given the premium market is twice the size of the U.S. one. (Tesla) believes consumer awareness in Europe has significant headroom to improve and sees Germany as the most likely location for a local production facility,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a report, after meeting Tesla officials at a conference in London." (...)

Tesla Could Be A Lone Success In 2019 As European Model 3 Sales Catch Fire