TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Hogfighter]

I’m a little surprised that we’ve had at least 3 analyst upgrades this week, and the SP has basically followed the nasdaq.

 

[Todd Burch]

I’m a little surprised that we’ve had at least 3 analyst upgrades this week, and the SP has basically followed the nasdaq.

Me too. Deep-pocketed (and foolish) shorts, or general market nervousness holding us back from a breakout for now?

Seems to me if you're short, you're already underwater, and you get a bunch of upgrades on the stock you're shorting, it would be wise to exit with measured urgency...

 

[Curt Renz]

If you invested $1,000 in Tesla in 2010, here's how much you'd have now

From CNBC?

If you bought $1k worth of TSLA at IPO it would be worth just over $21k today.

CNBC - June 2010:

 

[Nocturnal]

Whenever I’m up $10k in the morning it fades

10k? Do you own a thousand shares?

Me too. Deep-pocketed (and foolish) shorts, or general market nervousness holding us back from a breakout for now?

Seems to me if you're short, you're already underwater, and you get a bunch of upgrades on the stock you're shorting, it would be wise to exit with measured urgency...

I'm sure it's a combination of things. Some may have convinced themselves that it will drop. Others are probably just praying that it does tank. There has to be a few managers that are just trying to delay the pain and hope they have a win somewhere else to save their skin.

 

[sweter]

Last 5 days. Notice each local dip/minimum is getting higher:
View attachment 360642

+$10 / week. I can live with that.

 

[anthonyj]

10k? Do you own a thousand shares?

I have 270 shares, 20 January calls and 10 March

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, you don't have to be that heavily invested in calls to move $10k per day

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, we're in the middle of a slow squeeze, so... it's a risk. I don't expect some sort of explosion, and there will be both low points and high points between now and then... but I'd wager you'll lose out some. But then your company gains, right?

we find out in two weeks time tesla's 4th quarter cars delivered. You could miss out on some nice gains.

If the SP is higher when I transfer back then maybe I have to pay some nominal tax on the gain, but my liability to the company will increase, however as I'll do the same transaction next year and the SP is likely to be higher once again, and perhaps a bit more stable at that point, then it shouldn't matter too much. A snapshot at 31/12 is all that matters.

If the SP is lower when I transfer then it will be taken as a non-deductible loss, but my liability will also decrease over all, so that's OK, my profits are vert healthy on an annual basis, so that doesn't matter too much.

My experience from recent quarters is that the delivery report doesn't tend to move the needle that much, it's more the earnings call which brings the big rise - we saw this with Q2 and Q3.

I'm also expecting some shorty-shenanigans in the Xmas week when all the big buyers are too busy drinking sherry...

Anyway, the risks are there, but at the end of the day it's still "my" money. Makes my accounts look a lot better at least

Sorry, this was a little OT, but at least not about Climate Change, Ti or Brexit

 

[replicant]

I don't think I've ever read such a disingenuous long article about Tesla than this WIred hit piece.

This part, as an example:

He also sent insults via other means. “You’re a horrible human being,” he emailed a former employee who had spoken out about Tesla, according to Business Insider. He sent a BuzzFeed reporter an email calling him a “****ing asshole.”

Guess who this "former employee" is?
Let's Google this phrase: "You’re a horrible human being"

All results point to a certain Martin Tripp. You know, this Martin Tripp.

How can Wired not mention the legal battle between the "former employee" and Tesla? The "former employee" is publicly accused of sabotaging the company but he's presented by Wired as just an employee who spoke out about the company.

Will journalists speak out about how Wired is sabotaging the integrity of the media, or what?

 

[AWDtsla]

I don't think I've ever read such a disingenuous long article about Tesla than this WIred hit piece.

This part, as an example:


Guess who this "former employee" is?
Just Google this phrase: "You’re a horrible human being"

Answer: a certain Martin. Martin Tripp. This Martin Tripp.

How can Wired not mention the legal battle between the "former employee" and Tesla? The "former employee" is publicly accused of sabotaging the company but he's only presented as someone who "spoke out" about the company.

Will journalists speak out about how Wired tries hard to sabotage the integrity of the press or what?

SP says, no one cares. I stopped reading 2 paragraphs in. Some immunity has clearly been built.

 

[KarenRei]

Of course you can mandate it: the U.S. does this kind of balancing via semi-automatic transfer payments between states. Growing, export-rich states like California or Texas pay very large sums into the federal budget - which for example helped balance Florida's social services payments when the housing bubble burst. (Which hit Florida the hardest.)

This is what prevented Florida from dropping into a decade long economic depression like Spain did. This is why Florida youth unemployment didn't reach 50%+ levels like Spain's.

This is the problem @neroden and me tried to outline. I did not talk about any solutions yet, because I don't think we agree on the problem to begin with.

Let me outline it with a Gedankenexperiment: let's suppose Europe consisted of 27 clones of the German society. Same mindset, people, culture and economic rules, regulations.

The introduction of the Euro, and the flow of trillion Euros of North-German money into South-German countries would have created a similar housing bubble, export imbalances and depression economics with 50%+ youth unemployment in South-German countries - while North-German countries would be booming.

This is the simple asymmetrical outcome of the design flaws of the Eurozone inter-country flow of funds and macroeconomics.

Pleeeeease stop....

MOD: Fixed. Many posts moved to "Brexit". All other such posts to be written there and only there.

 

[ggr]

The base CCS connector is IEC 62196-2. Tesla's is a backwards-compatible format with IEC 62196-2. CCS combo is IEC 62196-3, a different backwards-compatible format with IEC 62196-2. Tesla is no more in "violation" of the base IEC 62196-2 than CCS combo is. Tesla is the only manufacturer that went with their variant because IEC 62196-3 wasn't published until 2014, while IEC 62196-2 was published in 2011.

I hate these "Tesla made up their own standards because they wanted to be different" myths. No, Tesla has its "own thing" because they were first. The reason there are different connectors are because everyone else wanted to be different.

Could Tesla achieve > 200A on IEC 62196-3 (CCS Combo) v1.0 by modifying IEC 62196-3 into a different format that's backwards-compatible with IEC 62196-3 v1.0, rather than waiting for v2.0? Of course they could. Would people whine to high heaven about that for years to come, like they've whined about Tesla's Menneckes-variant connector? You betcha.

And regardless, look at those cables. The CCS cable looks thinner, no? Thus, lower gauge. Combined with no signs of cooling? Lower power.

I hope I'm wrong.

I am reminded of Microsoft's attitude to the Posix (and other) standard... "Embrace and extend".

 

[Earlian]

Last 5 days. Notice each local dip/minimum is getting higher:
View attachment 360642

Hopefully this time the week ends with an uptrend and we don’t get the sugar of last Friday’s close...

 

[M3Rider]

Why I don't share the LOLs either, we should not forget the other side of the story either:

• He is still calling Tesla a "cult stock", not realizing their true value. So the healing process of facing reality and his recovery is only partial.
• Shorts did very real damage to thousands of people already. The pressure from FUD and Wall Street triggered the June layoffs of 4,000 people at Tesla - many of whom have invested years of their career into the company. How many families faced financial trouble due to that?
• Tesla workers are putting in crazy work hours to prove the doubters wrong against all the odds. How many relationships broke up due to that?
• There's also the negative external effects of the FUD: the fires, the accidents, the executive turnover, the amplified negative news and lies spread about Tesla non-stop by shorts, often gleefully and maliciously even in that very Twitter thread. These activities to spread disinformation about Tesla are keeping quite a few people from buying Tesla products and are still keeping quite a few investors from investing in Tesla.
• After the March 2018 Moody's downgrade, helped along and cheered by shorts, Tesla faced real existential trouble: being a leveraged, financing based company both on the growth (corporate bonds) and on the customer side (solar bonds, auto leases) Tesla was particularly vulnerable to a "crisis of confidence", i.e. a bank run. Suppliers being worried about Tesla's solvency, amplified by relentless FUD, could have cut off the flow of key parts.

Personal casualties are always sad - but this onslaught of FUD is not a war Tesla started.

Nobody forced him to bet against and spread lies about a uniquely innovative company, which malicious acts could have contributed to tens of thousands of honest to earth workers losing their jobs and their retirement equity.

Not to mention tens of thousands of Tesla investors losing their investment.

I have a lot more sympathy for those who lost big when the crypto currency bubble burst - that was a Ponzi scheme run by professional conmen - not easy to see through. But to short a manufacturing company that tries to change the world?

So I think this kind of karma is well deserved, and the extent of damage his net worth suffered was caused by a string of many mistakes, of which shorting Tesla was only one.

I mostly agree with what you said.
Except we don't know if he personally "spread lies" as you stated. I think this makes quite a bit of difference - just placing wrong bets or actively participating in FUD.
I feel more for his family though. I knew(barely) a guy who had bad luck with investing and resolved it by crashing at high speed into another car killing its 2 occupants besides himself.
Then his wife and kid had to process what has happened and it was not easy on them.

 

[AWDtsla]

I am reminded of Microsoft's attitude to the Posix (and other) standard... "Embrace and extend".

Except POSIX worked perfectly well, whereas high speed charging (or I even dare say charging in general) is a joke. The whole connector/EVSE standards are an unnecessary tax on EV's.

 

[Tslynk67]

I mostly agree with what you said.
Except we don't know if he personally "spread lies" as you stated. I think this makes quite a bit of difference - just placing wrong bets or actively participating in FUD.
I feel more for his family though. I knew(barely) a guy who had bad luck with investing and resolved it by crashing at high speed into another car killing its 2 occupants besides himself.
Then his wife and kid had to process what has happened and it was not easy on them.

You can see on his Twitter feed. I'd copy-paste some here, but he blocked me... Not sure why, I didn't say anything unpleasant toward him.

I've many shorts who have blocked me on Twitter. They hate it when people pop up, pointing out their lies and telling the facts.

 

[Fact Checking]

Except we don't know if he personally "spread lies" as you stated.

He did I think: his Twitter feed is still re-tweeting Tesla FUD. He also didn't correct the reply that called Tesla a "fraud".

I believe he is still under the influence of the Tesla-short cult, he didn't learn from the experience, he just ran out of his family's assets.

 

[Nocturnal]

The 'Tesla Killer's' failure is partly behind TSLA's resilience in the stock market

I find the very notion of a "tesla killer" to be ridiculous at this point. The best the competition could possibly do would be to reach parity in terms of performance/features/profit margin. New entrants are going to be taking away from ICE sales, not from Tesla, and those same new entrants are mostly ICE manufacturers.

 

[anthonyj]

What in the f is this bid/ask spread... moving 80 cents a second up and down. This is nuts

 

[wipster]

I have 270 shares, 20 January calls and 10 March

And a partridge in a pear tree