tsunamiofhurt
Member
So you think a valuable use of your time is attacking Tesla bulls who have been fighting the "naysayer, OEM, short, ugly inside, judgemental prig" for years. Got it.
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So you think a valuable use of your time is attacking Tesla bulls who have been fighting the "naysayer, OEM, short, ugly inside, judgemental prig" for years. Got it.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure a small tax is going to fix the issue. It will just reduce the profits or in shorts case increase losses
.All we need to know is identification of each bid/ask in realtime as short or long. Also, end of the day firms that hold above a threshold of shorted stocks should disclose their position. This will tell us who the big players are - and when they are shorting vs covering.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I was wondering why it was rated funny
I'm still not used to TSLA being in the 300s. All those pre-earnings days of 200s is burned in my memory.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Two things.
One, not core to the business. So, why bother.
Second, this will still increase working capital requirements - as there will always be a time between leasing and bundling to sell bonds. All those debts will still be on the balance sheet, too.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Elon isn't selling sneakers or soda.
People Over 50 buy lots of $50k + cars and have lots of capital to invest.
Impressing 13 year olds is important for the future.
People over 50 are not irrelevant to the NOW.
Demo numbers capture live TV audience.
Not youtube clips, CBS.com clips, nor recorded TV clips played after 3 days.
Other luxury carmakers don't target 10-29 year olds.
They target 30+ year olds.
Including people over 60 watching Golf tournaments or Hallmark TV.
If Tesla wants to expand beyond niche it needs to expand beyond wealthy people under 45, because that is a niche demographic.
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There is a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence that Tesla will prove to be the iPhone of cars. Young people think it's cool and strive to be able to afford one. Also the brand is increasingly aspirational in the sense that people are trading in much less expensive cars like Camrys and Accords for Teslas. As long as people are willing to blow out their budgets to spend $1500 for an iPhone Xs Max, I think Tesla will do just fine with the same demographic in terms of buying $50k cars where their previous car only cost $25k.
Now whether that is good for the personal finances of these people, well that's not really any of our business is it?
You didn’t hear?
In addition to flame throwers, surfboards, car chargers, and tesquila, Elon’s got Nike Air Musks and “Not Coca Cola” coming out in time for 420 day 2019, which also happens to be Plant a Seed Day.
All the kids are really excited about the future of Tezzla.
Especially this:
Tesla readies second US dollar auto ABS deal
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
And … ?
BTW, the Nasdaq futures are down 0.5%. But that doesn't mean much (yesterday it was down about 1%).
Krugerrand
Meow
Context, buddy. Read the sentence that came before that, that’s the beginning of the thought.
Let me help you out. The paragraph started: Elon Musk is for real. If a 10 year reflecting back doesn’t illuminate that for you then...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In case you missed it, here is the 60 Minutes interview about Tesla with Elon Musk from 10 years ago:
Agree 100% - the demographic of 60 minutes has perhaps the majority of the money invested in stock markets, and also has plenty of discretionary income to spend on $40k+ cars
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So I was wondering why my Tesla Energy Solar Consultant stopped reaching out to me. ..
My Solar install is not a priority - see you next year. He's getting reassigned tomorrow for deliveries.
It's only the 10th... hes in Southern California. What the hell.
Time to short.
Puts that is. Maybe Mark Smegol will buy some from me?
My Solar install is not a priority - see you next year. He's getting reassigned tomorrow for deliveries.
It's only the 10th... hes in Southern California. What the hell.
Time to short.
Puts that is. Maybe Mark Smegol will buy some from me?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
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The question is: if they find out they need to tweak their battery management, will they be able to do so via an over-the-air software update, or will they need to recall the cars?
Before they get to that question however, there is an even bigger question: will they get the required data to find out what is wrong and how to prevent it? Tesla realised that a battery fire had a non-negligable chance and built their battery pack and BMS around that (e.g. removing the safety caps from the cells and moving that responsability to the pack design, letting the BMS monitor and balance the cells (or is it modules?). Who knows what the other car manufacturers did to prevent battery packs, and improve the safety as they get more real life experience.
I think this twitter exchange between Elon & 60 Minutes could be pretty significant.
(60 Minutes)
Dec 9
Elon Musk had to step down as Tesla’s chair. So did he lose power? He handpicked his successor, and when asked about her watching over him, he says: “That's not realistic… I'm the largest shareholder in the company.” Does he want to be chair again? “No.” (link: https://cbsn.ws/2Sxewz0) cbsn.ws/2Sxewz0
Replying to
@60Minutes
This is a very misleading edit. Please post the full transcript where I complete the sentence.
Twitter
(my bolding)
Would really like to see 60 Minutes persuaded to release the full unedited transcript of the several hour long interview (it was several hours per Elon in an earlier tweet tonight)... the opportunity to compare the 14 minutes that aired to the hours of unedited material could be a very effective tool for helping more people understand better Musk, Tesla, and what is the currently common fun house mirror used by so much of the media.
Not expecting that this will work, but for those with twitter accounts, it just takes a minute or two to like Elon’s response, retweet it and reply to 60 Minutes repeating Elon’s request.
(60 Minutes)
Dec 9
Elon Musk had to step down as Tesla’s chair. So did he lose power? He handpicked his successor, and when asked about her watching over him, he says: “That's not realistic… I'm the largest shareholder in the company.” Does he want to be chair again? “No.” (link: https://cbsn.ws/2Sxewz0) cbsn.ws/2Sxewz0
Replying to
@60Minutes
This is a very misleading edit. Please post the full transcript where I complete the sentence.
(my bolding)
Would really like to see 60 Minutes persuaded to release the full unedited transcript of the several hour long interview (it was several hours per Elon in an earlier tweet tonight)... the opportunity to compare the 14 minutes that aired to the hours of unedited material could be a very effective tool for helping more people understand better Musk, Tesla, and what is the currently common fun house mirror used by so much of the media.
Not expecting that this will work, but for those with twitter accounts, it just takes a minute or two to like Elon’s response, retweet it and reply to 60 Minutes repeating Elon’s request.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
You could be right, but there are important caveats when using the Troy tracker, so I tried to qualify the Troy tracker data with "to the extent we can trust the tracker", because:
- Another big change from Q3 to Q4 was a QoQ halving in the sample rate, from 3.2% to 1.7%. (This is probably related to further reductions in logistics delays, which gives owners less time to register the car in the "excitedly waiting for the VIN and delivery" phase of their purchase.)
- The tracker AWD take rate of only 43% is inconsistent with Tesla's disclosure of Q3 AWD take rate of over 50%.
- This suggests that lower optioned units were over-sampled in Q3. (This is an "expected" behavioral outcome: those customers less able to afford a Tesla would assign more importance and more pride to the purchase, which would make them more likely to take the overhead of registering with the Troy tracker.)
- That kind of low, 1.7% sample rate usually requires the use of sophisticated sample weighting techniques based on demographics - the Troy tracker doesn't record demographics, and even if it did only Tesla knows the real target demographics - which would also shift as prices shift.
Regarding Model 3 margins, there's another upside that wasn't mentioned yet:
- Q3 included ~11,000 Model 3's made in Q2 with a higher cost of goods and higher rework/service overhead attached. This is about 20% of all Model 3's delivered in Q3.
- In Q4 there are only 8,000 "incoming" units, all made in September, which already had the ~30% labor efficiency improvements.
- I'm not dismissing the ~15% reduction in the Model 3 EAP take rate, because it's consistent with the behavioral idea that the surprise introduction of the MR combined with the $7.5k tax credit might have created new buyers of the "I can afford a Tesla after all if we get the credit" type. They would be budget constrained, with a budget forced lack of EAP. They might also have crowded out other buyers due to the tight deadline to still get the tax credit.
- Also note that the EAP take rate has increased to over 90% in the Model S/X tracker - which has more stable sample demographics than the Model 3 tracker. This might counterbalance an EAP take rate reduction on the Model 3 side, partially.
- We don't know the post delivery EAP purchase rate: end of Q3 Tesla started an EAP trial period and released v9 early Q4, which might have spurred sales.
This suggests that order books are probably full.
All things considered, a reduction in Model 3 ASP looks probable, the question is by how much. Reduction in effective Model 3 margins is less certain, IMHO.
A final Q4 upside not mentioned yet:
- European and China Model 3 configurator is open, which would yield $2,500 deposits, or +$1,500 per unit, which would be +$15m of cash flow upside per 10k orders. If 50k European and Chinese customers order by the end of year this would be a +$75m cash flow upside.
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Brando
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Actually, selling to young people is very important right now already, as the effective price of a Tesla can already be as low as ~$35k after incentives if you live in the right state, and TCO can be below $30k effective if we take fuel and maintenance savings into account.
The average new car sales price is around $36k now in the U.S.
Selling to young people is what BMW has been doing for decades: the 3-series is styled, priced and advertised for the youngest demographics, who are then upsold to the 5-series and 7-series as they get older and have higher incomes.
BMW's approach was very successful and many other makers of premium cars started emulating them.
Other factors are that:
- Younger people are less familiar with and less biased in favor of ICE cars.
- Younger people are significantly more liberal and more diverse, which reduces anti-Tesla prejudice.
- Younger people will be living in a global warming affected world longer, so are generally more environmentally conscious as well.
- The Tesla customer loyalty, satisfaction and brand re-purchase rates are off the chart amazing, so it makes sense to lock in brand loyalty as early as possible. The "I will never buy an ICE car again" customer opinion is very common, and on a rational, and emotional basis.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
And here's the score:
60 Minutes: 326 Retweets 2,500 Likes
Elon Musk: 1,874 Retweets 20,299 Likes
The Twitterverse has spoken.
Cheers!
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