TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

In an interview the SEC commissioner showed that he wasn't even aware of the tweet by Musk. He asked during the interview, something like "he said that ?!".

Either way, not sure what they can do. Infact I think it adds to the pressure on them to act on short sellers. Transparency is totally lacking, as we all know. Nasdaq has prposed some transparency rules after these events (may be they were working on these before we don't know). High time SEC did something.

The biggest problem, probably said already here, is high frequency trading. Congress needs to enact a small tax on it with revenues accruing to SEC for watchdog keyed to performance.

 

[Curt Renz]

Where have all the shorts that used to provide the entertainment go? I actually enjoyed reading the comebacks that would drive them back into their hole. Reminded me of that Whack-a-Mole game.
https://bunkstrutts.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/kitty-whack-a-mole1.gif?w=450

Short interest in Tesla has been steadily declining. The smarter ones have likely licked their wounds and sought greener pastures for their predation. Many of them may have joined their Pied Piper, Andrew Left of Citron Research, and switched sides. Of course an unfortunate few may plan to stubbornly hold out until wiped out.

 

[Unpilot]

I keep telling people who say "man I wished I bought at xxx" that any price under 1k is a steal.
The only way this stock does not break the 1k barrier is a real bad unplanned event.

Orange or black.

 

[22522]

Jaguar I-Pace caught fire in the Netherlands while parked:

Een kudtkoekiewall. Omdat dat moet, van de kudtkoekiewet.

They just started delivering the things, have under 5k on the roads... and one already caught on fire? Seriously?

We're still awaiting the first fire in a consumer Model 3.

Hopefully it was just vandalism... somehow, I really doubt that, though. Jaguar is investigating.

Looks like the front motor wireset needs a fuse, or vandalism...

 

[Opus BC fan]

I follow Supercharger network count closely. But on the Tesla website.

The number has stuck at current level, 1375 and 11414 for a while. Where did you see the progress being rapid?

Thanks.

Maybe here-

supercharge.info

 

[Causalien]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

Canada uses FIFO accounting. So in order to avoid paying a large cap gains tax on shares I purchased around $20~$40, I cannot sell stocks.

On top of that I maintain about 100k under the fed insurance program for cash in brokerage and actively sell cash secured puts against those.Many times I let it gets exercised to get more shares when the cash go above 100k.

I also sell calls against my core stocks when opportunities arrive as well as buy calls and subsequently sell calls agains the same options on volatile days.

It's the only way to trade for me without getting taken to the cleaner by that large cap gain tax. My accountant has thought up a plan to establish a corp to ease the tax burden by ~5%. I have yet to move the stock into the scheme as the current can gov is dead set on killing all tax strategies that mitigates taxes.

In any case, this simple strategy has allowed me to double my tsla stock holding since they days of $20 while maintaining a healthy cash cushion and call options as buffers.

 

[gringotuanis]

Did the Fremont tent get taken down recently? That would date at least part of the 60 Minutes interview.

No, that was a smaller tent the shorts had been talking about.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Elon, once again, unfollowed 60 Minutes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

View attachment 359874

Just boarded my Phuket, Thailand-bound flight for a few weeks of golf and diving along with amazing Thai food. And yet I'm already suffering separation anxiety from my two-week old P3D! Don't get any ideas, she's safely tucked away in her garage. ;-)

I traded in my BMW335is convertible almost 3 years ago and happily drove a 2000 Honda Civic while patiently waiting for this beautiful beast.

Ooh, don't want to worry you while you're on vacation, but it looks like somebody stole the Instrument Panel right out of your new car.

I hear this is happening a lot on these new-fangled 'lek-tricks



CH3ERS!

p.s. enjoy ur time in paradise.

 

[SpaceCash]

Let the selling begin! Computers want 10% overall mkt drops (or 13%) and they are going to get it. Time for a bit of caution

lol

 

[Carl Raymond]

I do it not because of the "mission" at all. I think air quality will improve, but that's about it. Global warming and the rest seems false or at least no one can prove it yet. We simply don't have enough data pre 1850. Most here disagree and thats fine. Mostly I think the tech is now here to make electric cars that are much simpler than ICE vehicles, so it's an engineering advantage. The current push to a "green" culture helps the stock too, even though I don't believe in it myself, but ppl do treat it like religion which helps my trading. It's like buying apple stock even though youre a PC gamer. You just know ppl like apple.

The volatility is helpful for trades if you do it right. (Not guaranteed money by any means). I survived the infamous tweet but it took awhile for some of the call options to get to breakeven again. I'm not really a day trader, more like a multi month trader w options. (Swing trader). Long tsla via stock and options.

OT
Please tell me what you see when you look at the Keeing Curve. What is causing it to rise? What do you feel is the effect of increasing the concentration of greenhouse gas like this?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

And here’s what drives my forecast for the future; the guy walking his talk, dragging the likes of every naysayer, OEM, short, ugly inside, judgemental prig kicking and screaming like little girls who’ve lost their dollies.

Elon Musk is for real. If a 10 year reflecting back doesn’t illuminate that for you then you’re one of the described above. And your slow witted. Don’t get down on yourself, though, not everyone gets to be smart and a good person.

Is this directed at me or are you speaking generally ...?

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
Take climate-related discussions to that active thread please. ZERO reason to glom up this thread with that admittedly supremely important topic. Do not ask moderators to move your own OT posts, but -
further posts will be summarily deleted, irrespective of any intrinsic value.

 

[Buddyroe]

does this really matter, when Tesla is outselling Jaguar's electric offering ten to one?

I don't think outselling Jaguar in EV sales is the end goal. You?

 

[Krugerrand]

We don't need no stinking trucks!
It's After Hours. Y'all now finally get to meet my SW2 that put the SW2 in SW2Fiddler:
View attachment 359920

Did this twice, once from the north, once from the south, to outfit my backyard aquaponics setup.

It’s an improvement in the car’s aesthetic appeal.

 

[M3Rider]

Buying $690 strike 2021 calls in the morning. Basically betting on FSD to be released between now and then.

Now, here... I own a patent for sharing this idea
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
and collect royalties for each public use

 

[abasile]

But what did they do when Elon tweeted "Short Enrichment Commission"?

What did they do when Elon prepared a one sentence "what-ever" for the explanation to the judge about the validity of the settlement while SEC went on for pages?

Maybe we should have sold some in both of the above two occurrence?

And what would happen if Tesla really buy one of the GM plant? Given the current political environment, I can't imagine any of the main stream media company not covering that. I bet they can get a pretty favorable contract with the union if they really do that.

I sometimes trim my stock holdings in companies in response to my comfort level taking a significant hit. I'm not talking about macro movements, but rather company-specific developments. Whether or not such moves prove optimal for my portfolio is another matter, but they help me to sleep well.

The one other time my comfort level dropped on TSLA and prompted me to sell was after it became clear that Elon was relying on the Saudis for his go-private bid. I then sold about one third of my TSLA shares at +/- $350, then subsequently bought them all back, and more, at lower prices ($330s and down to the $250s).

Taken alone, I'm actually not bothered by Elon making negative comments about the SEC, and I share his sentiments. But I'm a bit concerned about his public admission to not having his Tesla-related tweets pre-reviewed and the consequent possibility of Elon / Tesla being accused by the SEC of violating of the terms of the settlement. At least in the short term, this would not be helpful to TSLA.

Buying a GM plant for pennies on the dollar could be an awesome move for Tesla on multiple levels, but only if the union could be kept at bay. Personally, I'm most excited about the possibility of a Tesla pickup truck that steals high-margin market share from GM, Ford, etc.

 

[Foghat]

It’s funny they didn’t run this segment as the primary interview on Sunday. It is much more fascinating to see the then and now a decade later. Shows how Elon stayed the course and the naysayers slipping away into the dustbin of history.

Add:

Elon Musk Forced To Defend "An Incredible American Success Story" On 60 Minutes — Shame On You, CBS | CleanTechnica

A very thorough analysis of 60 minutes and irony of Tesla as one of America’s great success stories of our time...

 

[Krugerrand]

Is this directed at me or are you speaking generally ...?

Yes

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Appreciate the detailed response. Here are a few additional thoughts:

While Model 3 ASP is down by only about $2.5k according to the Troy tracker, but the 'options mix' improved in favor of higher margin options, such as AutoPilot which has near 100% margins.

I may be misreading the Troy tracker, however, it seems like EAP went from 81.2% in Q3 to 66.4% in Q4. Similarly, FSD take rate went from an estimated 23.9% to 12.2%. The FSD drop makes sense in light of the off-menu change, but I would have expected EAP take rate to increase, as you mentioned.

Introduction of Medium Range potentially improves margins: people can spend more on higher margin options instead of being forced to spend on battery cells which is one of the lowest margin options.

People can spend more, yes, but I would bet most of that extra battery cost is going into their pockets. In comparing the take rate of these higher margin options (sport wheels, white seat, paint, etc.), there doesn't appear to be a large difference QoQ.

A few other headwinds on margins from the tracker data:

• >2/3 of the MR orders were placed before the price went up to $46k
• $5k Performance Upgrade Package cost was eliminated. This contributed ~$600/unit in Q3, or 1% of ASP.
• Performance take rate declined from 12.7% to 9%.