TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

IMO a standard truck shaped Tesla is a waste, so much more one can do starting from the base requirements.

Disagree.

Truck form factor and shape is built around hauling loads, like a water heater or dimensional lumber.
Front end needs to extend to have a crumple zone for safety (which is why you don't see the flat-front vehicle designs from Tesla).
Lockable frunk is a desirable feature for secure storage of things you don't want "stolen off the back of a truck".

Throwing out all the normal constraints can leave you with something just as functional (or more so) as a current truck that looks nothing like a normal truck.
I mean, you could have a cubic yard frunk, but why?

If it's going to haul the same stuff as a normal truck, it would have to look basically like a normal truck. Cab in front, bed in back, nose with crumple zone in front of cab.

If you meant something more detailed about the design, then sure, whatever, but it's gonna be "nose - cab - bed".

 

[neroden]

To Mr Musk:

For quite a few years now, I have been sitting with my typing-fingers firmly locked, not commenting publicly about the long hours other pickup trucks users and I have spent arguing about the drawbacks of the many erstwhile very popular vehicles currently on the market, and detailing the vast improvements possible were a non-legacy manufacturer to create one using an EV platform. These improvements encompass but are not limited to suspension, handling, capacity, flexibility of platform use, efficiency and longevity.

We unanimously and with not even a shred of doubt believe a well-designed, appealing, durable and truly functional electric pickup would so overwhelmingly capture that sector of the North American, Australian and parts of the Latin American, African, Asian and European markets that it would firmly cement the fortunes of its manufacturer, enabling it ever thereafter to enter any other manufacturing endeavors as an incontrovertibly colossal presence.

We also well understood the tenuousness of Tesla's early years, and the appropriateness of bringing to market other vehicles first, and patiently have been experiencing - either vicariously as genuinely disinterested observers or absolutely for those of us with significant amounts of our wealth tied up in Tesla stock - those years.

With that, it was with the utmost shock - sand poured into our stators - to learn you recently said

"You know, I actually don’t know if a lot of people will buy this pickup truck or not, but I don’t care."

A lot of us, sir, DO care, and we have entrusted you to guide through design and production one that will meet and exceed the exigencies of the market. We care as truck users, we care as investors, and we care as shepherds of the earth. Please assure us your extemporaneous comment occurred as the result of a poorly-reflected quip rather than as a representation of your role as Chief Product Architect.

Thank you.

Did you actually send this to Musk? Because you should.

MOD EDIT: No, I have not. I am aware of the layers of protection between him and hoi polloi, and do not trust those handlers to pass it on. HOWEVER....I give free rein to any of you Twitteroonies to reference its existence to him on his very active Tweesite.

 

[neroden]

Note that Musk did already say that a van variant of the pickup platform is possible...

I honestly think the truck should be designed as a van (better aerodynamics), and the pickup should be a body variant with the top of the van gone.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I also found it a but odd how Elon described the pick up and how he doesn't even care if anyone likes it he just loves it so much. Having said that, I think we are yet to be disappointed by any of Franz's designs. So maybe let's not panick until we see something we don't like.

 

[Bet TSLA]

There was a lot of praise of V9 on various threads on TMC, but what I see in terms of recognition for side and rear cameras does not impress me at all. Mind you, the front camera recognition is pretty good and driving seems to be mostly based on that, so driving performance is actually pretty solid.

You're confused. You are not seeing "recognition". What you are seeing is the display for humans. This could be anything at all, and may bear no relation to what the AI understands of its surroundings. Eventually, I think this display will go away entirely. Right now, it does no more than give you a vague idea of what might be happening. It's irrelevant.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am surprised too that the pickup will not be a direct competitor of F-150/250.
But it's very possible that the physics of making a compact and cheap workhorse truck is not read yet.
So the first play is to make a Pickup Roadster to grab attention and take the halo effect.
Then work the way down to get S and 3 of Pickups from there.

Elon's said the first pickup will target commercial trucks in the F-650 class. Look for many shared components with the Semi, except the truck will have a single rear axle and AWD. Perhaps a 500 KWh max bty size, but additionally an onboard 20KW AC inverter/charger and onboard air compressor (already developing this for Semi).

Then as their market share increases, demand will move down the product line, with Tesla building electric alternatives to the F-350, and finally the F-150.

Timeline? Maybe 6 years, if they can do 1 intro every 2 years. Anyway it's going be bad news for Detroit (not just Ford, but GM and Ram) and all the Japanese trucks. But they will be able to see it coming for miles, and if they choose not to respond that's on them.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

I think the truck is to grab headlines. What Elon said was more for "hyping" purposes than what he actually met. He wants to mass produce(or perhaps in small quantity) some kind of special edition Truck that is beyond normal. Think of it this way...look at some of those crazy cool concept cars. If Musk were to say "this concept car will be very expensive to make, but it's very cool. I'm not sure if many people will buy this..but I don't care". Is this really a negative comment? It's kind of what you would expect from Tsla, SpaceX, or Boring. Innovating and mass producing products that are usually out of reach from bean counting companies.

 

[neroden]

Well, I think Musk just gave the pickup makers enough time to make electric pickups, since Tesla's first pickup looks to be an unpopular weirdmobile. I hope I'm wrong. It'll be really ironic if the pickup makers *still* don't bother to make electric pickups given the extra 2 years head start, though.

 

[Unpilot]

This is certainly a thing. When politicians do something extremely unpopular, they generally try to do it in darkness with nobody paying attention.

At this point the health care crisis in the US has made it quite impossible to oppose universal health care *silently* without anyone *noticing*.

Proof we are in the Matrix: I saw a headline while I was at the gym on fox news that said "Democrats are coming around to the idea of Medicare for all"

 

[bhtooefr]

I honestly think the truck should be designed as a van (better aerodynamics), and the pickup should be a body variant with the top of the van gone.

Interestingly, that whole idea is a thing in Europe and Asia, although not the US... but the beds aren't typically cleanly integrated like those on purpose-built pickups.

However, you could do that more cleanly than those - here's a Ford Econoline pickup, as an example:

And, of course... the difference between a van-based pickup and a "native" pickup nowadays is largely defined by the nose length, and the Semi has shown that Tesla's willing to do short noses, so you might end up with something that falls into the van-based category anyway.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, I think Musk just gave the pickup makers enough time to make electric pickups, since Tesla's first pickup looks to be an unpopular weirdmobile. I hope I'm wrong. It'll be really ironic if the pickup makers *still* don't bother to make electric pickups given the extra 2 years head start, though.

Ford had a prototype 600hp AWD electric F-150 at the SEMA show back in 2008, ironically exactly 10 years ago today, Nov 3, 2008.

What they DON'T have is batteries, or any plan to make any.

 

[JRP3]

Since we're talking EV trucks the pass-through frunk of the Bollinger is a clever design

Bollinger Motors | Bollinger Motors

 

[mongo]

Great letter.

Just one consideration. Outside the US a hilux sized vehicle is preferable. It appears that the US likes F150s or larger. Tesla would need at least two size variants to capture global ute sales.

Sure, but there us more than one GF planned, so US plant can build F-150 style and European plant can build hilux type.

The interesting point is that the TBMs are actually the *strong* part of the industry. The bulldozers and backhoes (like the carts for removing spoil and bringing in reinforcement pieces) have had even *less* in the way of improvement. Which is why it can take as long to dig the hole for the TBM "launch point" as it does to drill the entire TBM-drilled tunnel, in some cases.

I've been wondering when Musk will notice this and revolutionize the bulldozer/backhoe hole-digging business. Extreme low-hanging fruit, IMO.

From that image of the worker in the pit/ station, it looked more like a vertical shaft/ casson construction than a backhoe type project.

Disagree.

Truck form factor and shape is built around hauling loads, like a water heater or dimensional lumber.
Front end needs to extend to have a crumple zone for safety (which is why you don't see the flat-front vehicle designs from Tesla).
Lockable frunk is a desirable feature for secure storage of things you don't want "stolen off the back of a truck".


If it's going to haul the same stuff as a normal truck, it would have to look basically like a normal truck. Cab in front, bed in back, nose with crumple zone in front of cab.

If you meant something more detailed about the design, then sure, whatever, but it's gonna be "nose - cab - bed".

Sure, but the scale of the nose and the height of the cab can vary. An S/X has a 5 star crumple zone (albeit for a lower mass). A truck with V10 followed by accessories, fan, coolant radiator, AC condenser, trans cooler, grill and then bumper has more room than is needed.
Cab height is dictated in part by trans and tunnel.

Since we're talking EV trucks the pass-through frunk of the Bollinger is a clever design

Bollinger Motors | Bollinger Motors

Yah, I was wondering if extending the bed under the rear bench seat would be worth it for the extra couple feet on cargo length.

 

[KarenRei]

I also found it a but odd how Elon described the pick up and how he doesn't even care if anyone likes it he just loves it so much. Having said that, I think we are yet to be disappointed by any of Franz's designs. So maybe let's not panick until we see something we don't like.

Did Franz design that unimog?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

In Recode podcast, I'm surprised she didn't ask Musk about the chairman. Not who it might be but what kind of a chairman he is looking for.

She was probably told in advance that it’s a no-go area for questioning. Just like during the Q3 conference call. It’s smart of Elon. Anything he says on that subject will be used against him.

And please save us from 10 more pages of speculation in this thread.

 

[mongo]

Disagree.

Truck form factor and shape is built around hauling loads, like a water heater or dimensional lumber.
Front end needs to extend to have a crumple zone for safety (which is why you don't see the flat-front vehicle designs from Tesla).
Lockable frunk is a desirable feature for secure storage of things you don't want "stolen off the back of a truck".


If it's going to haul the same stuff as a normal truck, it would have to look basically like a normal truck. Cab in front, bed in back, nose with crumple zone in front of cab.

If you meant something more detailed about the design, then sure, whatever, but it's gonna be "nose - cab - bed".

Even with a big of nose squish, you're probably right. A truely lockable frunk would be great.

Biggest impact may be the interior cab styling.

 

[BenPrice]

Maybe this is a shower thought...

But it makes a ton of sense for Fords and Tesla to form some partnership.

Well, I think Musk just gave the pickup makers enough time to make electric pickups, since Tesla's first pickup looks to be an unpopular weirdmobile. I hope I'm wrong. It'll be really ironic if the pickup makers *still* don't bother to make electric pickups given the extra 2 years head start, though.

Elon is not competing in Fords main space and vice versa, fords is dropping cars and never competed much in luxury.

Fords Tesla partnership on Tesla Semi and a Fords designed EV sounds perfect to me. Joint mfg big rigs. Cash infusion from Fords funds model Y.

Then slowly roll out a fords/Tesla combo truck for the masses in 2025.

2 bil now for Semi mfg margin rights, Tesla gets paid by megachargers. 2 bil goes to model Y. 1 bil later, matched by Tesla, for truck mfgz

 

[KarenRei]

Another thing Musk mentioned that made it clear that this isn't going to be a F-150 killer:

"It's going to have a lot of titanium."

Titanium costs a bloody fortune (even if you ignore the costs to machine it, which are significant). An order of magnitude more than alumium, 1 1/2 orders of magnitude more than steel.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Well, I think Musk just gave the pickup makers enough time to make electric pickups, since Tesla's first pickup looks to be an unpopular weirdmobile. I hope I'm wrong. It'll be really ironic if the pickup makers *still* don't bother to make electric pickups given the extra 2 years head start, though.

Shall we wait until we actually see the Pickup before drawing rash conclusions about some ‘unpopular weirdmobile’ and about Musk handing the electric pickup market to the incumbents?

 

[EVNow]

She was probably told in advance that it’s a no-go area for questioning. Just like during the Q3 conference call. It’s smart of Elon. Anything he says on that subject will be used against him.

Yes - pointedly there were no questions at all on the whole SEC affair. Must have been a designated no-go area.