Lately, I’ve been thinking about Benedict Evans’ argument that an EV company isn’t any more intrinsically disruptive or valuable than an ICE vehicle company. Without autonomy, what makes Tesla deserve a tech company P/E ratio or P/S ratio (or other valuation multiple)?
ICE companies are fairly steady (or decreasing) in terms of sales and aren't branching out into other revenue streams.
EV in general: ability to grow, as more locations ban diesel, fuel prices increase, and climate change comes to the forethought in people's minds, EV sales will increase.
Tesla: by getting volume production out there first, Tesla has the best growth path, along with mild lock in (HPWC is not cross compatible), endorphin induced repeat buyers.
Revenue stream: Tesla is also Energy, supercharging is a (low margin) revenue stream that scales with sales. Mega chargers will do the same. Utility scale power installation with batteries and solar are long term profit centers.
tie ins: SpaceX could use renewable energy for the Methane needed for BFR (also provide carbon sequestration). Boring will need electricity and pods along with motors and packs.
Down the road, Tesla may decide to be a supplier to other companies, thus tapping their volumes also.
So yeah, software analogy does not really line up untill they start selling apps and media services (post FSD). In the meantime, they have a lot of potential expansion which could support a high ratio (for the current time).
