Search results

Sigh.... you are like a fast computer with no control over the input assumptions. These things at best are tiny variables.

Just checked in after a couple weeks. It appears Fact Checking still hasn't figured out his errors on short squeezes or neural nets. That's not even mentioning his blindness on model 3 gross margins which is more important. (I only pick on him because he's the best of the bunch honestly)

That's absurd. He tried to actually present arguments.

I'll look into it. Thanks for the advice. Oh man.... funny *sugar*.. Weekend is boring eh?

Basing it solely on his posts! pardon me! alright I admit I've just been having fun. Let's table all this and be more serious when the market opens on monday. No hard feelings?

Let's be clear. I don't much care about you kids. You understand that right?

I am a smart dude, like easily top 1%, and my guess is he's somewhere between 25-32. He's above average by far but he's wrong consistently in ways that people with more experience would detect. I have no doubt he's a < 32 age high IQ dude with little actual life experience who gets a crazy...

alright then.... I'm signing off for the night, Wooo!! TESLAA@@!@@ WOO! !! GO!!! 90000! SHORT SQUEEZE!!! SUPER POWERFUL AI COMPUTER WOOOOOO!!!!

Ok let's make a bet out of it. I wager he's under 35. Do you take the bet?

For the record, while its easy to beat on him, I do like Fact Checking he's just kind of young and naive. Still top 1% despite his inability to sort out mythologies. Like, once you've decided this stock is worth 1000+. when do you realize the point isn't to actually locate whether that means...

You want to have a side bet here. I bet Netflix beats Amazon in returns to 2025. What say you?

This leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Plus I don't know why you are going after this guy so hard. I don't actually know this specific case but I suspect it doesn't actually generalize as well as you hope it does. Sorry. You definitely had me nodding along with 'While I agree most technical...

I have to say I honestly didn't get this meme. Is it just 'gotcha!' Whitfield is Brantley! Brantley is Whitfield!

Yeah the funny part is most of that was wrong.

You got to be careful who you listen to. This is wrong. And this is right. I've been following Karpathy on Twitter and he is overly impressed with topics of optimization and it makes me nervous actually. The real bottleneck on FSD is if Tesla hires and relies on someone that doesn't actually...

What do you mean? Are they excited about the P3D thing or still in crisis mode? I am entertained by the Gasporino related fighting.

Neroden is closer on the NN subject than the others here.

What are you trying to do here? The valuation of Honda is determined by its growth rate but you have no growth variables. That makes this useless.

I find spreadsheet models of a pro-forma type income statement with some generic forward modelling is very useful, and of course understanding the basic accounting concepts, particularly if you can break apart and find where specific sub-components are trending to make sure that you aren't...

I think it's possible some very strange scenario happens. As time goes on most of the value for Tesla will be in the autopilot platform technology and then even more than that potentially the actual customer-facing service revenue model (i.e. all money for riding goes through Tesla). In this...

That really is all that matters.

Thanks for the reply. Not a fan of that approach since valuation has to include growth of course. I'll check that out. Assumptions tend to be the most important part. The way I approach it is. If everything is fine, I'm rich whatever happens. I have been saying all year Tesla is 20% chance...

First of all, I'm bored of the weekend already. Let's get on to Monday. What I found funny was your suggestion that I should evacuate the board if I had doubts about short squeezes. First of all, I don't have trouble with high valuations as I did just buy 6 figures worth of 400 strike price...

That's my strategy so what's yours?

credentialism? People are susceptible to all kinds of weak indicators of status like college degrees (mba and phD). Get an undergraduate degree and suddenly you are a 'scientist' or an 'engineer' and know more than a hobbyist. On first approximation that's fine, but it shouldn't take much...

Ah ok. I'll take a look for ya. Before I do though (and don't hold your breath for my results I'm lost in the abstract), what's your current valuation model (or where is it posted) if you have one? Thanks! edit: Why is a dude working for Microsoft publishing computational finance?

Yeah -- c'mon guys. Fred's just the name on the tin here, he didn't cause Elon to logoff or create the rebate. I think the first reaction to hearing the price cut for 90% of people is going to be negative. It's human nature. People feel a little less special when someone else gets a better deal...

Ok market action. When can we expect Moody's to upgrade? If there's at least some chance they won't (which I have no idea about) then when they do that would be an event.

Hey no reason to get prickly with the analogies! :p

Helicopter ergo teleprompter hoc. I don't think that was causal.

Yum yum yum yum eat em up.

He wants to toss me off the board for questioning the likelihood of a short squeeze, which apparently went on for an extended period in 2013 rather than simply you know... being a good run. Someone should review the short squeeze talk here from August. It was one for the record books.

Reign it in their soldier. The sequoia can only grow so fast.

Hey I was the first one here to point out you deserved credit... where's my cookie.

Shots fired. I heard the French subtitle movies from Quebec.

This is like the reverse situation of Netflix's qwikster.. only they are getting in trouble for lowering prices too fast.

Good job. Like the mythical short squeeze, technical traders are generally poor at actually verifying that any of the techniques are more than superstition.

Lmao. It's funny how all smart people are still crazy in one way or another.

God they are just comedy. I am enjoying the gasparino vs tslaq stuff. He was their hero just a little while ago when he reported banks were trying to get Tesla to work on bankruptcy contingency plans. Now it's civil war after he said something about how obnoxious they are.

Anyone invested in Tesla probably thinks this it is a bad deal for shareholders. Anyone who thinks Tesla needs all the cash it can get thinks it's a good deal.

Just watch and delight in gazing into his beautiful countenance. 2:21:00 He must feast on the stem cells of virgins. The guy looks insanely good for 74.

heh. Fred's like 'told ya b*tches!'

Fred Lambert cracks me up. His tone on Tesla seems to depend mostly on how much something affects him personally.

Ugh the mythical short squeeze talk again! I remember what happened the last time.

My guess is they fiddle with the price next depending on demand level, prolly go up.

Yeah I've been unable to justify actually buying a car because of how little I actually drive but ... this is much more tempting plus tax break.

whoa they just made the performance upgrade package free for the P3D...

Agreed. Is it possible to estimate how much?

Shoot me but I prefer Mulally. He was just a contract CEO for Ford, not some guy stuck in the old mode, and he did pretty well (or that's the reputation). Engineer with Boeing experience. I bet they get along well while adding good 'adult oversight' bona fides. Plus there was a spy shot of Elon...

4. SELECT COUNT(*) FROM PROFITS