TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

According to Trump, he would have just ran a different campaign if total votes were the deciding factor. Even though I’m not a Trump fan, I think he has a point. But we will never know since I don’t see the electoral college disappearing anytime soon.

Meh. I don’t think he’s capable of anything other than he puts out. Now, no more politics, pls and txs.

 

[mongo]

You think the ICE manufacturers are going to try to design a million mile drivetrain? Their dealers would kill them. They have to build in planned obsolescence, both for their dealers and themselves.)

Just look at how GM jammed everything into the "frunk" of the Bolt. No quick/easy/cheap drivetrain replacement there.

Nah, I don't think they are (lost track of my subjects). GWhile Tesla's bearing last and last, GM is great at making rotary things that fail around 100k....

In general though it makes more sense to swap a pack or drive unit than install an overhauled 10 year old ICE and transmission...

 

[RobStark]

Another short seller is out:

 

[K_Dizzle]

The reason I strongly disagree with you is the following.

Gas taxes charge people more for driving a lot.
Flat fees on EVs charge people the same amount no matter how much they drive.
So *even in Washington* anyone who drives less than average is incentivized to buy a gas car. That's just wrong. Only high-mileage drivers come out ahead by driving an EV -- specifically the drivers who are doing the most damage to the road.

This is a totally unfair way to pay for roads: soak the people who drive the least for choosing EVs.

Anything proportional to miles driven would be tolerable.

Cars barely put a dent on our roads, most of the damage is done by trucks

 

[BioSehnsucht]

That's nonsense! They absolutely can tax the miles you drive in other states. There's no federal rule against it. It's a registration fee for registering the car in Oregon; it can be based on the total number of miles driven, in any and all states, as a form of discouraging excessive driving in general, and there's no reason not to do it that way.

Seems like it would just be easier to add a tire tax. Don't remove the gas tax though, it should probably go up. Carbon tax all the things!

 

[Krugerrand]

Yet in the meantime you will continue to drive your two ICE vehicles even though a Volt, Bolt, Leaf or Prius are affordable on a budget but you are not willing to compromise (on range?) for the benefit of the environment. Welcome to the majority of car buying consumers. This is precisely why the OEM's have no incentive to move any quicker than they are on EVs. Not enough people are demanding a change right now.

What would you buy/lease if one of your cars was stolen tonight?

It’s been clearly stated to you that the PHEVs/BEVs available are not compelling that’s why they aren’t being purchased.

If the Gremlin and Fiero and K Car we’re currently available they wouldn’t sell either because not compelling. Leaf not compelling. Bolt not compelling. Anything Tesla super compelling.

If someone stole my van tonight - hope they don’t because I’m on vacation starting tomorrow, I’d buy/lease nothing until Model Y. (I have another vehicle I’d use.). Okay, if I didn’t have the spare vehicle I’d buy a second Model 3 and then probably sell it when Y comes out.

 

[mongo]

Cars barely put a dent on our roads, most of the damage is done by trucks

Sure, damage to roads is approximately related to axel weight raised to the 4th power.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The gas taxes also have a problem of not having a MPG adjustment for cars. So people with a Prius get charged less for driving the same number of miles as someone driving a gas guzzler. (Which is OK as a pollution tax, but not for road maintenance.)



Oregon is testing having an odometer tax to replace the gas tax but it isn't that easy because they can only tax the miles you drive inside Oregon, not what you drive in other states. So they have to use a GPS device, which people don't want.

And we don't have an inspection, but there is a bi-yearly emissions test, though you can do that yourself remotely via a OBD-II device. (Of course EVs are exempt from having to participate in the emissions test, so they never need to have an inspection of any kind.)

They have or had a pilot program, but they've more recently adjusted registration fees with an effective implication that they recognize that the real damage is by trucks and they'd move to a fixed fee for all cars.

 

[keydiver]

The insane mind of the Tesla short, back on Video:

five00pagesaday

They have that idiot, we have Galli. The HyperChange Q3 Video was great.

Wow, what an ass! Is there a special Hell for idiot shorts? I want my 2 minutes back. That was all I could take.

 

[Krugerrand]

BTW., just curious, what are the main factors of utility or taste that make her prefer the SUV form factor over the sedan form factor?

I’m guessing higher driving position.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The insane mind of the Tesla short, back on Video:

five00pagesaday

That is simply fascinating. The power of denial and rationalization is awesome. This is how black holes implode!

Fortunately, the stock market has a way to keep score. When you go against reality, it eventually kicks you in the nuts. I wish this was the case in politics, too... but alas, it's not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They haven't even really begun to cover the ~30 million shares they owe back to the market

35.4 mm shares shorted 27.76% of float.

 

[Fact Checking]

Today I got a weird private message from a one day old account @Niedermeyer who claims to be "Ed Niedermeyer, reporter for Automotive News", requesting that I identify myself to him to prove whether I'm Elon or not.

Just to state the obvious: I'm not Elon, nor a Tesla insider or employee, nor am I affiliated with Tesla or with any of Elon's companies directly or indirectly, in any shape or form. I'm not a public figure, I'm a Tesla and SpaceX fan living in Europe, as my "location" tag and the time stamps of my comments already reveal. I'm somewhat obsessed with checking facts, as my user name suggests, and I love speculating about Tesla with other Tesla supporters here on TMC.

(I also hope that no Tesla insider is posting and speculating on TMC - it would probably be highly inappropriate on several levels.)

That my joke about the "Shortseller Enrichment Committee" found its way to Elon via Twitter was funny - I wish some of my other, more serious comments and suggestions about Tesla found their way to Elon as well.

On a related note, congratulations to Tesla, Elon and Tesla supporters for the outstanding execution of the Model 3 ramp-up that helped generate 1.4 billion dollars of cash in the last quarter, $881m of which was free cash flow.

This quarter should put to rest the various concerns Ed Niedermeyer expressed about Tesla's business model in the past: generating ~20% of cash from revenue is about twice that of Amazon's cash generation rate - and Tesla might soon join Amazon and Apple as another U.S. company reaching a trillion dollar valuation.

 

[Krugerrand]

If we believe Tesla was planning to build 10k/wk of 3 from Fremont and that the ramp from now to 10k is possible in a sub year time frame for lower CapEx, it is reasonable to conclude they do not need another high cost long lead stamping line to achieve that rate. Based on that, the capacity difference between 10k and present production could be manufactured based on the previously determined 10k/wk plan and shipped to China.

And yeah, more racking and more frequent PM would be needed, but the racks will be needed anyway. And PM is proportional to production. No biggie.

Plans change and I questioned the ability to make those numbers initially with the equipment they had/have.

I’ll also add that racking takes up Yyyuuge amounts of space that Fremont doesn’t appear to have had for quite some time. I’ll also add that sending a finished car body takes up less shipping space than a bunch of separate car parts on special racks that hold a handful of parts each.

But here’s the thing...lots of discussions over the months about whether or not they have the ability out of Fremont to do 10k/wk plus S and X. Lots of discussions about bottlenecks in paint and GA. They had to build ‘the’ tent just to get to the 5k/wk. And now discussions of why they seem to have backed off from 10k/wk target.

I’m leaning toward a cap of 7k/wk of M3 (and using capex as the excuse going forward- as in it’s better spent somewhere else (Y, semi, pickup) than in trying to expand to 10k/wk in Fremont or some such) and that 7k/wk feeding NA, China and Europe (and Australia). Then China GF comes online fully 2020 and makes its 250k planned per year of 3 and the Femont 7k/wk feeds NA and Europe. Then Europe GF comes online 2022? and makes whatever and Fremont feeds NA and whatever other markets come online - India? Africa? South America?

Something like that. But I’m just spit balling like everyone else.

 

[KarenRei]

Today I got a weird private message from a one day old account @Niedermeyer who claims to be "Ed Niedermeyer, reporter for Automotive News", demanding that I identify myself to him to prove whether I'm Elon or not.

Just to state the obvious: I'm not Elon, nor a Tesla insider or employee, nor am I affiliated with Tesla or with any of Elon's companies directly or indirectly, in any shape or form. I'm not a public figure, I'm a Tesla and SpaceX fan living in Europe, as my "location" tag and the time stamps of my comments already reveal. I'm somewhat obsessed with checking facts, as my user name suggests, and I love speculating about Tesla with other Tesla supporters here on TMC.

(I also hope that no Tesla insider is posting and speculating on TMC - it would probably be highly inappropriate on several levels.)

That my joke about the "Shortseller Enrichment Committee" found its way to Elon via Twitter was funny - I wish some of my other, more serious comments and suggestions about Tesla found their way to Elon as well.

On a related note, congratulations to Tesla, Elon and Tesla supporters for the outstanding execution of the Model 3 ramp-up that helped generate 1.4 billion dollars of cash in the last quarter, $881m of which was free cash flow.

This quarter should put to rest the various concerns Ed Niedermeyer expressed about Tesla's business model in the past: generating ~20% of cash from revenue is about twice that of Amazon's cash generation rate - and Tesla might soon join Amazon and Apple as another U.S. company reaching a trillion dollar valuation.

Quick - delete your post and troll him relentlessly. You know who Niedermeyer is, right? Remember the old "Tesla Death Watch", from all the way back in the Roadster days? That was him. Daily Kanban? Yep, Niedermeyer. Heavily promoting the "Whompy Wheels" conspiracy theory? Yup, Niedermeyer. We're talking one of the Elder Gods of Tesla trolls.

Go full-on "419-Eater" on him. Try to get him to do something ridiculous on camera or waste a huge amount of time, hoping to get some dirt on "you"

 

[Off Shore]

I think you're expecting law and rules to be fair, but the best you can expect is that they're reasonable..

...and that they can evolve as conditions change.

 

[TNEVol]

A little ot in the evening but after Q4 I see little reason to focus on deliveries in the US except end of quarter numbers in March 19. And perhaps an attempt to meet the SR commitment maybe also at end of Feb - March. Does this mean a possible batching like we have seen before to Europe and Asia? Your thoughts on shipping high margin cars in early Q1.

 

[TradingInvest]

I agree with DaveT. Tesla's downside risk is very small at this time. In the past there were lots of Zombi shorts who are brainless and fearless, so they all hammer the stock at the same time, end up pushed the stock lower again and again, (longs used the opportunities to add shares).

Now some of the shorts realized Tesla is not as weak as they were told. They realized Tesla is unlikely to bankrupt, instead the upside is huge. As someone described on this forum, one rat jumped the ship, the rest of them are looking at each other don't know what to do. Meanwhile real investors continue to add shares.

Insider trading ban should end by Monday. I think shorts will see more purchase pressure. Through this whole ordeal, I realized lots of shorts are indeed quite stupid. All they need to do is to go to test drive a Model 3, or ask a few owners why did they trade in a Honda Civic and bought a Performance Model 3.

The Shanghai Gigafactory is designed to produce 500,000 vehicles a year. The demand from China alone should reach 5 million a year. Tesla will see huge transformation in the next few years. Shorts still have no clue.

 

[printf42]

Seriously, are we not talking about this?
Elon Musk on Twitter
I developed this habit of nervously refreshing Twitter at 4:20PM in recent weeks, hopping Elon will not tweet something stupid.
Then, this happened.
So, it’s time again? 421 is the new 420?
I really wish I was overthinking, or he’s just teasing shorts.
If he is serious, there goes my OTM leap calls down the drain, again! WTF!!!

 

[Krugerrand]

Is there a special Hell for idiot shorts?

Yes. Yes, there is. I assure you.