dandurston
Member
"I thought there was some chance we'd see a near term bankruptcy on Tesla, but now that is probably off the table"
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When China comes online the PE is going to rock. That’s as soon as 24 months.I still can't believe what a difference a day makes.
Yesterday before earnings, analysis consensus was for a small loss for the quarter.
Not only Tesla make profit but we got a big beat with profit of $2.90. If you extrapolate for the year, that's $11.60 and so the P/E ratio today is $310/11.6 = 26.7.
So we went from having no PE ratio, entirely skipped the part in the evolutionary cycle of a growth company where we have an astronomical PE ratio, and landed at the average PE ratio for the market.
MEANWHILE TESLA IS GROWING FASTER THAN ANY OTHER COMPANY. IT IS THE ULTIMATE GROWTH COMPANY.
AMZN and NFLX MASSIV PE ratios.
If you give TSLA AMZN's PE ratio of 141, then TSLA will be $1600. Couldn't you argue that Tesla deserves a higher PE ratio than AMZN because its growing faster.
What am I missing? I appreciate your input in helping me to wrap my head around this...To me it seems like TSLA is now massively undervalued with these new numbers.
You mean these numbers updated through Q3? They are Tesla's own numbers since 4Q16. They are NOT my numbers. Check the Tesla production and delivery reports yourself. Then I tweak the numbers when the 10Qs are released. (Numbers always seem to change slightly).That is Donn Bailey, former Ford dealer and author of low quality and self-serving Seeking Alpha hit pieces against Tesla when he was short TSLA, in a nutshell, blaming the customer.
BTW., your SA Article in April 2018, which made misleading and false claims about Tesla's inventory numbers, looks even more ridiculous today.
You never apologized to Tesla and Tesla investors for trying to harm them through misinformation in a crucial, critical moment of Tesla's corporate history.
Seems like something should survive from the BEV efforts of Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi. Perhaps not all three, but considering how much of the non-Tesla BEV market they represent ... hopefully something survives. They seem to be trying harder than most (which, to be fair, is a low bar).I tend to agree with much of your thesis except I see Toyota making it.....
On the other hand, it's possible the survivors include: only one strong German Company (VW or Mercedes), one strong Japanese company (Toyota), 1 strong Chinese company, 1 Korean company, Tesla & maybe GM. The French & Brits will go by the wayside.
"I thought there was some chance we'd see a near term bankruptcy on Tesla, but now that is probably off the table"
Quit blaming the OEMs and put the blame where it belongs; on the consumer. I can go to my local stores and find unsold inventory of Bolts, Volts, and a selection of Tesla products ready for immediate sale. Why is that? Because the darn consumer (at least here in the U.S.) is not motivated enough to care to buy BEVs yet in large numbers. Until $10/gal gasoline changes that attitude the big OEM's have little incentive to build a radically different product that not enough people want. That is just the sad reality. So they are going to steer the ship slowly in the EV direction.
If millions of buyers turned their backs on ICE units, the OEM's would be falling all over themselves to build EVs. But sadly, that is not the case is it? I tried to get two of my relatives interested in BEVs in September. One, who can well afford any car out there did test drive a Model S and Model 3. She was impressed, but not enough to buy. So she leased a new Mazda CX-5 for 36 months, after turning in her leased MB S550. (She now thinks MB is too ostentatious and draws too much negative attention.) My other relative and her boyfriend have zero interest in any type of plug-in vehicle. That is the mass-market buyer today. Frustrating I know.
The fact that the party receiving *fewer* votes has gotten into power repeatedly (2000 Presidential selection, 2016 Presidential election, many years in the Senate, many years in the House) is also making a lot of people really upset. Minority rule tends to amplify people's grievances, because it starts to seem like they *can't* be addressed at the ballot box. When the majority votes for one government, and the other guys get in, the majority understandably starts talking about civil disobedience and the illegitimacy of the govnrment.Obviously actual civil war isn't going to happen - but significant political unrest like in the 60s can't be ruled out. High income inequality and stagnant income for the majority will be the catalyst along with a lot of social issues that are getting more air. People who have been marginalized want big changes where as a large section of the population fears any change. It can get ugly.
Isn't it possible that Tesla ordered a new press line months ago?
delusional ..The guy sounds depressed.
The fact that the party receiving *fewer* votes has gotten into power repeatedly (2000 Presidential selection, 2016 Presidential election, many years in the Senate, many years in the House) is also making a lot of people really upset. Minority rule tends to amplify people's grievances, because it starts to seem like they *can't* be addressed at the ballot box. When the majority votes for one government, and the other guys get in, the majority understandably starts talking about civil disobedience and the illegitimacy of the govnrment.
Quit blaming the OEMs and put the blame where it belongs; on the consumer. I can go to my local stores and find unsold inventory of Bolts, Volts, and a selection of Tesla products ready for immediate sale. Why is that? Because the darn consumer (at least here in the U.S.) is not motivated enough to care to buy BEVs yet in large numbers. Until $10/gal gasoline changes that attitude the big OEM's have little incentive to build a radically different product that not enough people want. That is just the sad reality. So they are going to steer the ship slowly in the EV direction.
If millions of buyers turned their backs on ICE units, the OEM's would be falling all over themselves to build EVs. But sadly, that is not the case is it? I tried to get two of my relatives interested in BEVs in September. One, who can well afford any car out there did test drive a Model S and Model 3. She was impressed, but not enough to buy. So she leased a new Mazda CX-5 for 36 months, after turning in her leased MB S550. (She now thinks MB is too ostentatious and draws too much negative attention.) My other relative and her boyfriend have zero interest in any type of plug-in vehicle. That is the mass-market buyer today. Frustrating I know.
So no sir, it is me who is owed an apology. But of course, that will never come.
Do you *know* how ugly it got during the industrial revolution? I've studied it. We had two competing state governments at one point. The "union wars" involved actual guns and dynamite. A communist "strike committee" took over Seattle and was massacred by the Army. And in England, oh boy.You mean income inequality like during the industrial revolution?
MacArthur murdered the "Bonus Army", half the world was taken over by fascism, and the US was only OK due to FDR.Or during the depression?
Again....Or during the civil rights movement?
Yes, and before -- the history of England is full of this stuff from Magna Carta onward.Or countless other times in our history? It's nothing new folks. We have been struggling with these issues since the founding of our nation.
...and this isn't the place for political rants, so I will drop it.
Dan
I still can't believe what a difference a day makes.
Yesterday before earnings, analysis consensus was for a small loss for the quarter.
Not only Tesla make profit but we got a big beat with profit of $2.90. If you extrapolate for the year, that's $11.60 and so the P/E ratio today is $310/11.6 = 26.7.
So we went from having no PE ratio, entirely skipped the part in the evolutionary cycle of a growth company where we have an astronomical PE ratio, and landed at the average PE ratio for the market.
MEANWHILE TESLA IS GROWING FASTER THAN ANY OTHER COMPANY. IT IS THE ULTIMATE GROWTH COMPANY.
AMZN and NFLX MASSIV PE ratios.
If you give TSLA AMZN's PE ratio of 141, then TSLA will be $1600. Couldn't you argue that Tesla deserves a higher PE ratio than AMZN because its growing faster.
What am I missing? I appreciate your input in helping me to wrap my head around this...To me it seems like TSLA is now massively undervalued with these new numbers. Why are we only seeing price targets in the 400s?
Possibly... it does depend on the state.In CA I don't think that is the case.
It depends on the state: in Texas, IIRC a study showed that over 3/4 of the road funding was NOT from user fees, but from general taxation.There is also additional funding INTO the highway and transportation accounts, but in CA at least that is not the primary contributor. Any information to the contrary would be interesting to read.
Tesla sells cars under 50 miles as new "in the wrapper". Showroom models have almost zero miles. I was not talking about test drive or loaner cars with hundreds or thousands of miles that are also sold as "new" but discounted.Purchasing a floor model is a bit different than new product just sitting in a parking lot or on a shelf. One is new and the other isn’t.
On another post you say you can’t compare numbers because one sells direct and the other companies don’t. It seems odd why you would then try to compare floor models of cars as the same type of stock as new vehicles sitting on a car lot.
So no sir, it is me who is owed an apology. But of course, that will never come.
You know Elon has been on Big Bang at least once and on Young Sheldon as well. I think they would love to have a story involving a Tesla in their final year and I seriously doubt there would be any money exchanged for product placement. What a way to go out, in ludicrous mode!I was watching PBS last night and wondering why not a Tesla story? So I had this idea...
I wonder how many people here would be willing to help create a story for them, and then even donate to become members? It would be like the "customer helping with sales" which brought tears to my eyes in the CC along with Elon. I'm choking up again...
"I thought there was some chance we'd see a near term bankruptcy on Tesla, but now that is probably off the table"
In CA you can lease a Bolt or Leaf for around $300 a month and still the cars are sitting. I just do not get it. That is a HELL of a bargain. People are buying uglier ICE cars every day. The mass market just does not get the EV necessity yet. Let's hope they wake up soon.