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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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To put things into perspective for those who feeling a bit down. The general media continues to ignore overwhelming positive reviews on Tesla M3 (like the one above), while intensely scrutinizing them for accidents, minor bond rates, etc. As long as buyers continue to enjoy Tesla products and advertise for us, Tesla sales will continue to soar (they’ll sell every car produced for a very long time). The path to profitability isn’t built by writing countless FUD articles, it’s mapped out and broken down to a science by numbers—increase those numbers monthly and the rest will eventually work itself out. We started out producing 30 M3s in 3 months, then about 300/ month, that number is now somewhere between 1,500-2,000/ week. This ramp is real and it’s happening right before our eyes, it will eventually get to 5,000 (the magic number), sentiments will reverse (I suspect way before we reach 5,000/ week) and a violent spring will unleash momentum upwards. Arguably, if Tesla can get to 2,500/ week by mid April, we’ll be in a very secured place (exactly where I’d like them to be, despite the casualties). The street is currently worried, over worried to be exact and I think a lot of people will regret selling.

I’m holding pat with my cores, the rest of my funds will be deployed accordingly (that’s bc I mapped out a game plan for myself, in an event such as this, will help me capitalize). In the grand scheme of things, the economy remains healthy, jobs are robust, we have another 2-3 years of a run... EVs are getting more popular, 2nd Q will be much better...

Thanks for the sale bears, we’ll played, you’ll eventually repay what you took from my account. No hard feelings as the end result is all but written, signed and Elon will deliver it through a tweet. Be expecting it...
 
Great! Share your assumptions and calcs so we can have a mature exchange about how close it is when pipe #1 will reverse direction
I can save you some time, I know how this exchange ends, it comes down to whether you believe Tesla's guidance that they will be cash flow positive once they're at 5k/wk steady M3 production.
 
So that leaves - the fatal Model X accident...

Dude, car accidents happen and people die in them. WTF? Why should Teslas be held to an impossible standard of zero fatalities? You're ridiculous. Perhaps you need to review the NHTSA safety ratings of the Model S, then consider how drivers in other cars would have fared?

And yes, if autopilot steered right into that wall, it's still the fault of that driver. Not reviewing that tired argument from several years ago.
 
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This doesn't make sense to me. The cash burn has long been known, to anyone paying attention.
Apparently, they were waiting for the actual Q1 data regarding the state of the model 3 ramp. That's why they waited until...just before that data was actually released. Seems odd to me too, but thanks Moodys for the cutting edge speculation on the current state of the ramp.
 
Two general comments:

(1) The median human feels anxiety from fear of loss at 2x the intensity of happiness from gain. At the retail level, this is why there are so many "doom and gloom" posts among shareholders. It may explain the high volume of trading, although much of this is, I suspect, done by algobots programmed to act on technicals. Who will do the best in this environment? Silicon and Psychopaths.

(2) At the forum level (TMC, Reddit, various other web communities), Ego and Money are a toxic mix. It's no surprise that forums have been flooded by a variety of Trolls, FUDsters, and other malcontents. People who bet against Elon in the past and lost big, are back and looking to avenge past humiliation. It's getting personal on all sides, which I suspect means that most people are going to lose in the emotional frenzy. The winners will be Silicon and Psychopaths.
 
Thanks, actually around 11% is on margin. It’s small enough percentage that I’m comfortable riding this out. I do go in and out of Tesla, I don’t alway get the timing right but I’m feeling confident next weekda numbers will suprise on the upside.
I like it. It's nice to see some big brass balls on a TSLA long at this point given the sea of weak longs the stock has run through.
 
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Two general comments:

(1) The median human feels anxiety from fear of loss at 2x the intensity of happiness from gain. At the retail level, this is why there are so many "doom and gloom" posts among shareholders. It may explain the high volume of trading, although much of this is, I suspect, done by algobots programmed to act on technicals. Who will do the best in this environment? Silicon and Psychopaths.

(2) At the forum level (TMC, Reddit, various other web communities), Ego and Money are a toxic mix. It's no surprise that forums have been flooded by a variety of Trolls, FUDsters, and other malcontents. People who bet against Elon in the past and lost big, are back and looking to avenge past humiliation. It's getting personal on all sides, which I suspect means that most people are going to lose in the emotional frenzy. The winners will be Silicon and Psychopaths.
Well I'm not silicon, so...
 
In my little world, I have some nice evidence of Tesla making some deliveries. I have 3 friends receiving their cars tomorrow, Thursday. 2 at Marina Del Rey, 1 in Santa Barbara.....Then, moments ago, I was at a stop light and a 20 something guy rolls down his window and yells at me; "I get mine Friday!" The look of excitement in his face was priceless.

Me, when I feel concerned about Tesla plugging along, I take a look at the fact that they are still cranking out Superchargers. If they were in financial stress, the Superchargers would be the first to stop. But in fact the Superchargers are rolling out: supercharge.info
 
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