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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Trolljegeren - a great film if any of you haven't seen it!
I have seen that movie! I was going to ask you if that's what it was from, but I couldn't remember the title! Thanks for posting it, I really liked the movie... a bit odd, but quite enjoyable (unless you live in the North of Norway)!
 
The fact that this (please see above) is being leaked out right now should be VERY concerning to anyone long this stock...

I've tried to provide some note of caution here, over the last several days, but obviously no-one cares...

You will...

Wake the F - UP!, people...

I'm sure I'll get blamed / flamed / laughed at / ignored / blocked / and maybe even kicked off this board...
I really don't care... I've done the best I can to point out a few things you might want to think about, but from the responses, clearly they're not wanted...

I wish you all well... Going to be a REAL interesting week, folks... You might want to cinch-up that chin-strap...
You've done the best you can to spread FUD, and you failed, just as all those before you. You think we haven't been through this and more over the years? You're pathetic.
 
I've been thinking about this the past few hours. Didn't really get what Artful Dodger was talking about in that original post. But now the puzzle pieces are coming together. It does seem to make sense. It is only prudent for the Saudi's hedge against oil in the long term. They see the paradigm shift. Tesla would be the perfect partner for Saudi. Only logical right? They seem to like Elon too (they didn't take the bait when bloomberg questioned them about Elon's behavior calling him an eccentic)

To arrive at the thesis I posted in comments on Sep 29 about a potential GF5/Production deal in KSA, you just had to allow for the single possibility that nobody in the Financial Media even considered: "What if Elon was telling the truth about the Saudis wanting to fund Tesla?" Since the MSM never even considered that, they missed the obvious next consequences.

Now if Elon did indeed have funding secured, those funds didn't disappear in a puff of magical FUD and a toxic PR smear campaign. The Saudis still want to hedge their oil wealth, they still want solar PV and powerpacks for NEOM, and they still want Tesla EVs on Saudi Arabian roads.

Importantly, in the Bloomberg interview, MbS said EVs will not threaten oil, because
"nobody is talking about electric jets (sic) or electric ships". And he said there will always be the need for petrochemicals. So the present and future economic leader of KSA thinks that EVs and oil can co-exist in their future, and he intends to benefit from both. Key point right there.

So now the Saudis will likely buy more Tesla equity and products. My guess is we'll see an announcement on Oct 18 of an over $100B investment (to start). Note that last month KSA did cancel their previous $200B solar PV plan. They may have a better deal in the works, which also likely means a bigger, more expansive deal, so I am not placing any sort of cap on their next announcement. I view a $100B initial committment as a sort of kick-starter, Saudi-style.

With GF5 built locally, the Saudis would have no problem providing local loans to Tesla for the capital expenditures, knowing they have sole legal jurisdiction and physical control of the plant and equipment. This is the same reason GF3 in Shanghai is funded with local loans, comfortable in the knowledge that plants can't walk!

I also expect the Saudi PIF to take a larger equity stake in TSLA. With a properly sized investment, the Saudi PIF could literally own their own virtual Gigafactory (with locked-in and committed foreign engineering talent). Thus the Saudis get solar PV, battery storage and EVs at wholesale (commodities plus labor), and then sell those products into a large captive market. This also addresses Saudi balance-of-trade issues, since they are not importing significant amounts of expensive high tech products. So GF5/TSLA is a slick deal for KSA, why wouldn't they invest more right now?

Looking forward to the coming Saudi economic conference on Oct 18, and will watch for an announcement on a deal between KSA and Tesla.

Cheers!
 
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Virtually all tax comes from the rich. Trump isn't going to hike taxes by 50% on his mates. The only way the US comes closer to a balanced budget is political change.

However it seems that US deficits haven't historically mattered much to the market while the USD is the global reserve currency anyway.
Obviously most tax (in absolute terms) should come from the rich, due to how much more they have. Even if you were to flat tax everyone with zero credits/incentives/etc, taking into account total net worth, they would still pay most of the taxes, because they have so much more to tax. If wealth inequality wasn't so lop-sided, then things might be more spread out, but really, the top 10% or so should definitely pay much higher taxes than the bottom 90% (in absolute terms, not specifically percentages) because there is more to tax. You can't try to squeeze water from a rock (get more taxes from the lower end of the income spectrum), the only place to get it is from the rich. (Or of course, we could decrease our financial needs, for example by not fighting so many proxy wars for oil and other resources, which in turn leads to massive spending on the defense industry, etc - it would only take modest cuts to "defense" spending to solve the problem). All these corporate tax cuts only benefit the already wealthy. Nothing is passed down to the employees.
 
That's incorrect thinking. Regulation can lead to improved livelihood. If you can mine coal you can install solar panels, and be much healthier as well.

And what do you live on during the time period when you’re waiting for a solar installer to move into your area(reliant on local demand for solar) and training to be able to install solar? What do your children live on?

And that’s assuming you come at this from your particular political bent. Remember: as sure as you are that these people are fighting against clean air, most of them are just as sure you’re fighting to starve them and make them homeless.

This simplification of people is exactly what leads to tribalism(and racism/etc). If you ever think another group of people are purely bad or have purely evil motives, you’re probably wrong.

(By the way, much of this actually aligns pretty well with the speech by Hillary Clinton where the infamous “we’re going to take away their jobs” quote was taken out of context from)
 
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To arrive at the thesis I posted in comments on Sep 29 about a potential GF5/Production deal in KSA, you just had to allow for the single possibility that nobody in the Financial Media even considered: "What if Elon was telling the truth about the Saudis wanting to fund Tesla?" Since the MSM never even considered that, they missed the obvious next consequences.

Now if Elon did indeed have funding secured, those funds didn't disappear in a puff of magical FUD and a toxic PR smear campaign. The Saudis still want to hedge their oil wealth, they still want solar PV and powerpacks for NEOM, and they still want Tesla EVs on Saudi Arabian roads.

Importantly, in the Bloomberg interview, MbS said EVs will not threaten oil, because
"nobody is talking about electric jets (sic) or electric ships". And he said there will always be the need for petrochemicals. So the present and future economic leader of KSA thinks that EVs and oil can co-exist in their future, and he intends to benefit from both. Key point right there.

So now the Saudis will likely buy more Tesla equity and products. My guess is we'll see an annoucement on Oct 18 of an over $100B project (to start). Note that last month KSA did cancel their previous $200B solar PV plan. They may have a better deal in the works, which also likely means a bigger, more expansive deal, so I am not placing any sort of cap on their next announcement. I view a $100B initial committment as a sort of kick-starter, Saudi-style.

With GF5 built locally, the Saudis would have no problem providing local loans to Tesla for the capital expenditures, knowing they have sole legal jurisdiction and physical control of the plant and equipment. This is the same reason GF3 in Shanghai is funded with local loans, comfortable in the knowledge that plants can't walk!

I also expect the Saudi PIF to take a larger equity stake in TSLA. With a properly sized investment, the Saudi PIF could literally own their own virtual Gigafactory (with locked-in and committed foreign engineering talent). Thus the Saudis get solar PV, battery storage and EVs at wholesale (commodities plus labor), and then sell those products into a large captive market. This also addresses Saudi balance-of-trade issues, since they are not importing significant amounts of expensive high tech products. So GF5/TSLA is a slick deal for KSA, why wouldn't they invest more right now?

Looking forward to the coming Saudi economic conference on Oct 18, and will watch for an announcement on a deal between KSA and Tesla.

Cheers!
Damn I hope you are right... and I think you are, reading between the lines of that interview at least. See this is a post I like and agree with...
 
The fact that this (please see above) is being leaked out right now should be VERY concerning to anyone long this stock...

I've tried to provide some note of caution here, over the last several days, but obviously no-one cares...

You will...

Wake the F - UP!, people...

I'm sure I'll get blamed / flamed / laughed at / ignored / blocked / and maybe even kicked off this board...
I really don't care... I've done the best I can to point out a few things you might want to think about, but from the responses, clearly they're not wanted...

I wish you all well... Going to be a REAL interesting week, folks... You might want to cinch-up that chin-strap...

We’ve been cautioning shorts since 2012, had they listened they would’ve saved themselves $billions in losses.

Is there a reason why you are so angry? Is it because Tesla is producing the Model 3s in mass quantities? I know, it must pain you immensely.
 
It won't even make it in 2021... I would guess VW investors are relieved, one more year before they hit the wall...

Somehow I have to say as a German I'm unfortunately not surprised about this delay at all and expect quite some more to come. VW has to go through the same learning curve Elon did, despite he is a genius.
 
And what do you live on during the time period when you’re waiting for a solar installer to move into your area(reliant on local demand for solar) and training to be able to install solar? What do your children live on?
That is in fact what the government is for. During an economic and technological transition is exactly when government support should be utilized.
And that’s assuming you come at this from your particular political bent. Remember: as sure as you are that these people are fighting against clean air, most of them are just as sure you’re fighting to starve them and make them homeless.
Except that's not true. The transition from horse to automobile created a change in the work force and eventual increased prosperity.
This simplification of people is exactly what leads to tribalism(and racism/etc). If you ever think another group of people are purely bad or have purely evil motives, you’re probably wrong.
I'm suggesting that many people are actually working against their own best interest.
 
We’ve been cautioning shorts since 2012, had they listened they would’ve saved themselves $billions in losses.

Is there a reason why you are so angry? Is it because Tesla is producing the Model 3s in mass quantities? I know, it must pain you immensely.

Not angry at all... It's just starting to spin faster and faster now...

But, you do remind me........that there are two types of problems...

My problems.......and ~not~ my problems...

Good luck...
 
People, please don't get your hopes up too much about the Saudi announcement. From what's been released so far, it might not have anything to do with Tesla at all. The ties with Tesla may well be nothing more than the fact that they're allowing Tesla to open wholly-owned stores in the country.

And don't underestimate the potential of market fear in this coming week. I'll put it this way: I bought some at $260,66, but that was only the highest of my buy points. I put buy points all the way down into the $240s for a reason.
 
And what do you live on during the time period when you’re waiting for a solar installer to move into your area(reliant on local demand for solar) and training to be able to install solar? What do your children live on?

And that’s assuming you come at this from your particular political bent. Remember: as sure as you are that these people are fighting against clean air, most of them are just as sure you’re fighting to starve them and make them homeless.

This simplification of people is exactly what leads to tribalism(and racism/etc). If you ever think another group of people are purely bad or have purely evil motives, you’re probably wrong.
Considering that the solar installation industry already employs far more people than the coal industry, seems the obvious answer is that someone (federal? state? solar companies? billionaire benefactor?) should bring the training to them, and then they can either work in their local region to install solar, or take on week(s) long shifts elsewhere (like truckers and oil field workers do), or simply move to where the job market is.

Solar Beats Coal on U.S. Jobs

From the chart it looks like somewhere around 80k people are employed in the production of coal fuel (vs turning said fuel into power). For some reason they don't break out installers vs sales etc in solar chart, but it (total vs total) dwarfs coal, much less coal fuel generations.

From National Solar Jobs Census - The Solar Foundation it appears that installation was ~130k in 2017. (click Infographic link for a PDF with that). While 2017 lost a few thousand jobs, since 2012 the sector is up over 100% in jobs.

So it seems reasonable to be able to have some sort of job training program to, over several years, transition most (realistically, not all) coal miners and related jobs to solar and related jobs.
 
People, please don't get your hopes up too much about the Saudi announcement. From what's been released so far, it might not have anything to do with Tesla at all. The ties with Tesla may well be nothing more than the fact that they're allowing Tesla to open wholly-owned stores in the country.

And don't underestimate the potential of market fear in this coming week. I'll put it this way: I bought some at $260,66, but that was only the highest of my buy points. I put buy points all the way down into the $240s for a reason.

Possible outcomes:
Tesla related: TSLA falls because TSLA is as TSLA does with any kind of news
Not Tesla related: TSLA falls because TSLA is as TSLA does with any kind of news
Miracle: TSLA soars
 
Not angry at all... It's just starting to spin faster and faster now...

But, you do remind me........that there are two types of problems...

My problems.......and ~not~ my problems...

Good luck...

You’re right, the manufacturing lines are spinning faster and faster by the quarter. Did you see the numbers? Fantastic aren’t they? We have $2.2 billion in cash, reservations are healthy and we’re about to overtake Europe after dominating the US mid size luxury market.

A nail on the coffin for shorts would be profits, and it’s coming. It seems that you’re a short, and that definitely makes it your problem.
 
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