Chickenlittle
Banned
I am curious why we are not up to 400
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I agree with @Zhelko Dimic that for most people the best strategy is to hold and never sell to profit from 'peaks'. With a position dating back to 2014 I'd not hesitate: hold and enjoy the show, never sell as long as you have confidence in the long-term business model.
If you can add to your position then buy after large $50+ dips. Current price levels would still qualify I suspect, if you have confidence in the Q3/Q4 results and don't mind a $50 drop if something very negative happens.
This summer alone the long awaited all-time-high and subsequent possible short squeeze was close, twice - only for the price to retreat -$100, twice. Will third time be a charm? Hard to tell ...
Chickenlittle
Banned
Funny way to put it. Yes tesla saved on options by paying loan early BUT gov made better than market rate interest by tesla paying early repayment penalty. I also believe the FUD arguments that tesla was only surviving because of the loan was a factor. Instructive to see that shorts just shifted to another FUD argument. This will happen again once cash flow positive. Elon’s approach to not caring about Wall Street is correct one
bdy0627
Active Member
Historically speaking, you would have done well to increase leverage, either by adding shares or calls, when the stock has dropped at least 24% from a local peak. The real decision making comes with when to sell that leverage since, generally speaking, you only want to increase leverage at times of very low risk for a big dip and very high likelihood of a solid climb. If you aren't too greedy then you can pretty much deleverage after the stock has climbed a modest amount, say 18% from the bottom. You would miss some much bigger climbs from dips but you would virtually eliminate the problem of riding back down on a new dip with leverage.
TSLA even averages one dip of over 30% annually. There is no better time to ratchet up the leverage considerably. Just don't get too greedy on the climb when you are figuring out when to deleverage. On those 30% dips, you don't need to pay the time premium for LEAPs. ATM or even 10% OTM calls expiring in about 2 months have given ample time for recovery historically.
TSLA even averages one dip of over 30% annually. There is no better time to ratchet up the leverage considerably. Just don't get too greedy on the climb when you are figuring out when to deleverage. On those 30% dips, you don't need to pay the time premium for LEAPs. ATM or even 10% OTM calls expiring in about 2 months have given ample time for recovery historically.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
[ @Scuttlebutt ]
There's a couple of dangers with demo/shadow accounts though: they don't simulate the two most important elements of trading: emotions and real market behavior. In fact it's possible to get into bad habits using demo accounts, such as over-leverage or using unhedged/unprotected positions. The lack of emotions is a big problem too: many retail investors get into greed and panic events, which cause some of the worst losses - and which the professionals routinely use and abuse without any second thoughts. So I'd strongly advise against it.
Instead I'd suggest either not day-trading at all (really! the machines will beat you 90% of the time), or if you absolutely must, use a real live account with a broker that allows very small position sizes, fractional shares and micro/nano lots. Then you can slowly increase the stakes until you are still comfortable with it.
There's a couple of dangers with demo/shadow accounts though: they don't simulate the two most important elements of trading: emotions and real market behavior. In fact it's possible to get into bad habits using demo accounts, such as over-leverage or using unhedged/unprotected positions. The lack of emotions is a big problem too: many retail investors get into greed and panic events, which cause some of the worst losses - and which the professionals routinely use and abuse without any second thoughts. So I'd strongly advise against it.
Instead I'd suggest either not day-trading at all (really! the machines will beat you 90% of the time), or if you absolutely must, use a real live account with a broker that allows very small position sizes, fractional shares and micro/nano lots. Then you can slowly increase the stakes until you are still comfortable with it.
Bit of positive news from Australia vis a vis batteries and speed of acceptance and such
"Utility-scale battery storage come a long way, bigger, faster and more efficient than anyone would have thought."
Tesla big battery defies skeptics, sends industry bananas over performance
"Utility-scale battery storage come a long way, bigger, faster and more efficient than anyone would have thought."
Tesla big battery defies skeptics, sends industry bananas over performance
shlokavica22
Member
Bingo. Figuratively.. and literally.
Risk/reward ratio, with relatively correct timing and strategy, can be very rewarding.
I set a target return and sell at that target - miss out on tremendous gains at times, but can’t lose my gains if I’ve secured them. Amazon is great for this because with a 1.5% SP increase you can secure 40% gains - amazon is up 1.5% or more 9 out of a typical 13 week span. Last year I went from 2k to 60k during Q4 just using this approach.
That being said - each...”evolutionary” moment for Tesla, such as this quarters deliveries/earnings I place a healthy wager WAY out of the money. One day...maybe. If you look at market chameleon’s option chain you can guess what I’m holding rofl.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
"The VW spokesman said its plug-in hybrid models were at the back of the line for WLTP testing behind more popular conventional gasoline and diesel models. "There is a bottleneck with the testing," he said. "We have to get priority for highest-volume models."
Ummmm, so Tesla isn't the only one with bottlenecks?
I find it interesting that in the case of VW, clearing their bottleneck will result in cleaning their clock, while clearing Tesla's bottleneck will make it rise to the top.....oh sugar, I didn't mean that to rhyme.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Was always wondering who was holding those 859x 2019/Feb/15 strike $700 calls!
Oh that’s waaaay too far out for my attention span
I’m like the only volume on oct12 400s, and been adding for days.
Edit: and for the record this money is as good as lost...unless I’m ever right, and then I get a shiny new P100D.
My wife isn’t going to agree to a 100k + car purchase, so this is a lottery ticket of sorts.
But if Tesla does drop a high 80s or above deliveries number, a week run up and a tiny squeeze would be nice.
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Cohiba
Member
I see you are also from Belgium. Take a look at TurboXL longs, offered a.o. by Binck Bank. Very simple tool, you can only lose your investment, nothing more. I bought some with a stop loss at 249 on Sep 7, SP was 263 back then. They have almost quadrupled in value now.
As some others here, this is just for fun. I'm in it for the long term, with real shares. I just use it to keep my focus on the SP (and this thread ;-) ) And with a very low investment value of course. I only turned a very nice dinner into a very nice weekend and had a lot of fun doing it
You make an assumption of causality on that chart when you say shorts' "sell low, buy high", but an opposite causality would explain the chart much better:
Short interest rocketed up from mid-March through May, which caused the SP to drop, since they were dumping a lot of stocks to sell on the market, clear market mechanics 101.
Then in the summer millions of short shares were covered, which caused the SP to rise up due to the added buying interest.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
$TSLA the way this stock is manipulated by short sellers is unbelievable
Having said that yearly chart just turned positive this morning
With half a luck it will be 2013 to 2014 all over again and shorts will lose billions over the next several quarters
Having said that yearly chart just turned positive this morning
With half a luck it will be 2013 to 2014 all over again and shorts will lose billions over the next several quarters
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Let's just say the market isn't very confident about TSLA as of right now
I am not making any assumptions about causality and I think it is important to separate cause and effect. My primary interest is in the effect -- do shorts tend to short at local highs and cover at local lows and therefore lose less money than might be expected from simply looking at the share price alone? It turns out it is just the opposite -- short interest tends to be highest when prices are low and lowest when prices are high. That shorting and covering tends to also influence the share price due to basic laws of supply and demand doesn't change that fact.
An interesting question has been raised as to whether the "short low, cover high" effect is just an artifact of options trading due to delta or other hedging. Looking into that question and will report back (tentative conclusion -- short low, cover high pattern reflects actual trading patterns not just hedging effects).
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