TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AZRI11]

This is basically my investment thesis on Tesla.

Let's face it: the company's a mess. Internal communications are completely borked; the left hand never knows what the right hand is doing. Their IT department is extremely disorganized to the point where it's seriously damaging software quality. Most of the software on the car is pirated because they never bothered to check the terms of the open-source licenses. Their legal department is beyond terrible, managing to lose a libel case in "libel paradise" England. They aren't even able to keep track of motor vehicle registration rules in all 50 states. HR has been so badly mismanaged that bad actors are placing themselves into management and firing the decent people (yes, I think we now have enough documentation to be sure that this is happening in some departments) -- while this is pretty normal for any large corporation, it's still bad. Management seems to be so disorganized that they can't figure out where they need service centers (despite people yelling at them about it for five years). Delivery logistics seems to be quite beyond them, and customers have even been given cars of the wrong color.

But where's the competition? There isn't any. I follow all of it closely, and everyone else is making *bigger* mistakes.

Your right. I worked for a large company and stupid mistakes at every level was common. Work for a 250 million dollar company now and it's the same. People make mistakes myself included, but some of them are so boneheaded.

 

[beachbum77]

You wan't vacation time? Go teach 3rd grade public school.

I'm with #teamnosleep

It's not about _work_ its about results. Achieve it by any means necessary.

My late Dad had a great philosophy for his years at NASA. "It is not work if you love what you are doing".

 

[MXWing]

My late Dad had a great philosophy for his years at NASA. "It is not work if you love what you are doing".

I can agree with that - though I think every job has an Achilles that one doesn’t find pleasant but have to force through anyway.

 

[beachbum77]

Fair enough
I’ll stop posting here
No hard feelings

To appease Johan, post here first then copy to Twitter. I doubt anyone on Twitter will complain... lol

 

[EVNow]

You wan't vacation time? Go teach 3rd grade public school.

I'm with #teamnosleep

It's not about _work_ its about results. Achieve it by any means necessary.

Difficult to make out whether this is in jest or serious.

But my 3 decades of experience in the s/w industry is that over-worked engineers write crappy code. So if you are worried about anything ("results") other than shipping, you have to worry whether your employees are getting enough rest or not. Scope, Quality & Resource - you only control 2 of those 3.

 

[beachbum77]

I can agree with that - though I think every job has an Achilles that one doesn’t find pleasant but have to force through anyway.

Oh, no doubt. He came home broken when Challenger exploded in 1986. He was there for that one. Within a couple of days he was charged up to go find the why's. He joined NASA during Gemini. So he weathered a lot of highs and lows.

 

[beachbum77]

a dumb question.
i went to page
https://fintel.io/soh/us/tsla/ubs
IF (an I'm a complete newbie at options)
It looks like UBS
owns 1,804,673 shares
calls of 3,678,920
puts of 12,051,100

it looks like an imbalance of 6,567,507 shares of puts VS calls and shares owned unless i'm reading this incorrectly.
Now, thats not the "joking" 15,000,000 mentioned a few days ago, but not very insignificant.

If there are options folks (actually any options folks since i know zip) please help enlighten me.....

When you hold 1.8 million shares you use puts as insurance policies. The numbers may seem out of whack but I am sure the puts are cheap ones (low strike prices).

 

[MacRocket]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

Reciprocity is right, if any of you have a twitter account then please get over there and help out this week. As Q3 earnings approaches and the news of TSLA staying public sinks in the Shorts and FUDsters are becoming increasingly desperate and devious.
PLEASE HELP your fellow TMC on twitter to fight the FUD and lies.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I was counting on going private so we don't have to dedicate our lives to fighting Internet FUD for the rest of eternity. So I'm not happy that we're staying public now, that means we have to put up with short garbage for the rest of humanity's existence it feels like. I don't even know if Q3/Q4 profits will be enough to wipe them out at this point but I would sure like to be proven wrong there.

 

[TNEVol]

Well I did it again, outsmarted myself. I thought i was innoculated against the short term trader virus but i saw $$ by buying at 350 and selling at the inevitable 420+. I accidently benefited from the Solar City arbitrage so now I thought I was smart. If I have to sell my IRA funds anyway for TSLAP why not make few bucks in the process. I forgot that a major buy at $271 was sure to go up right away, which took 2 years (it seems) to surpass. But it did and now those shares do not look so bad at all. I expect that my greed at 350 short term will now be much more profitable long term. All this says to me is please stop thinking you know the answers and just buy the fundamentals. Nothing has changed about the company except that the risk is less and the potential is greater. Did I make a mistake at $350? Probably if I need the money in a couple of weeks. It may go below $300 or lower in the short term but i would be very surprised if $400 was not surpassed in this year. And, if not, in 2019. Finally the one thing that would absolutely cause me to leave TSLA would be change in Elons role. Thank for all you regulars do to help me keep perspective.

 

[geometro]

This whole “go private” thing should have been kept to Elon and the board until they have something to share. This random approach has not done anyone any good. The stock was at $349 prior to this, and is now $320. What was the reason for this noise?

It’s been a colossal waste of time and makes them look like amateurs. The fact they are staying public, unfortunately probably means they couldn’t find a set of buyers.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Chinese video about Tesla. Any native speakers want to interpret? I understood "Tesla, Model S, Model X, Model 3", and "Shanghai" 惊喜!实地探访特斯拉上海工厂选址_麻辣车评-梨视频官网-Pear Video

I’m by no means a native speaker...

Video gave a great explanation of why Tesla is building a factory in Shanghai, China. Video starts with saying the locals all know Tesla is building a Factory but not sure exactly where it will be. The shot of the open green field is the actual land. The Tesla factory will have other Chinese manufacturing neighbors. Really No new info we didn’t already know on why Tesla selected China to build GF3 like area with suppliers, port access, technology hub, logistics hub, Tesla’s second biggest market, etc. Two years to complete.
No 25%import duties. Only building Model 3.

Funny you picked out this video maybe at random and it didn’t have any FUD I can tell and just facts. And no reporter’s usless opinion.

 

[Ratanpara]

Well I did it again, outsmarted myself. I thought i was innoculated against the short term trader virus but i saw $$ by buying at 350 and selling at the inevitable 420+. I accidently benefited from the Solar City arbitrage so now I thought I was smart. If I have to sell my IRA funds anyway for TSLAP why not make few bucks in the process. I forgot that a major buy at $271 was sure to go up right away, which took 2 years (it seems) to surpass. But it did and now those shares do not look so bad at all. I expect that my greed at 350 short term will now be much more profitable long term. All this says to me is please stop thinking you know the answers and just buy the fundamentals. Nothing has changed about the company except that the risk is less and the potential is greater. Did I make a mistake at $350? Probably if I need the money in a couple of weeks. It may go below $300 or lower in the short term but i would be very surprised if $400 was not surpassed in this year. And, if not, in 2019. Finally the one thing that would absolutely cause me to leave TSLA would be change in Elons role. Thank for all you regulars do to help me keep perspective.

Short term trade is controlled by Short sellers and short term trader, but as a long term shareholders why would I sell stock on Monday, nothing really has changed with company, plus market hate uncertainty, now going private is off the table, focus should be Q3 result, I think quarter will be very good.

 

[MXWing]

This whole “go private” thing should have been kept to Elon and the board until they have something to share. This random approach has not done anyone any good. The stock was at $349 prior to this, and is now $320. What was the reason for this noise?

It’s been a colossal waste of time and makes them look like amateurs. The fact they are staying public, unfortunately probably means they couldn’t find a set of buyers.

Sell calls for 420 expiring March 2019 and print money off amateurs. Completely safe because no buyers at that level.

Those silly bulls and their misplaced faith and overconfidence in what 100,000 AWD and P Model 3s does for revenue!

 

[sundaymorning]

“53,000 children die prematurely due to vehicle pollution”.

The Modern Automobile Must Die | HuffPost

 

[schonelucht]

You can still abort the purchase. Closing the loan takes a more in depth review and it can fall apart despite the prequalification?

Analogies are less than helpful. Buying a house is fundamentally different than offering to take a principal company private from a regulatory perspective.

 

[MP3Mike]

Why? Obviously remote connection with fees immediately charged to credit cards. Idle fees charged to cars. They have always kept records of who is charging. Salvage cars not allowed. I wonder if police will get around to requesting records as part of investigations

I was pretty sure all of that is done via the cars Internet connection. (Well for the Supercharger authorization it doesn't even require network access, it is a setting on the car. If a salvage car has it's Supercharging disabled any of the hackers can just turn it back on directly on the car.)

 

[BLSmith2112]

The fact they are staying public, unfortunately probably means they couldn’t find a set of buyers.

From Staying Public :

That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process."

This statement was likely looked at by lawyers and IMO he wouldn't have said that unless there was a set of buyers.

 

[sundaymorning]

BMW is getting the worst kind of investigation:

“Seoul police and the government’s Transportation Safety Authority are conducting separate investigations to see if there has been any coverup.”

BMW Korea Feeling More Heat From Engine Fires

41 spontaneous engine fires on their 5 series.

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes to recall 700,000 to check for emission system irregularity. Final tally not yet known.

Mercedes recall numbers not known as yet

This is where the competition is, still trying to figure out how to patch up holes on a sinking ship. But competition for a new EV technology is supposedly coming soon.