TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Same her ein Germany: Don't click the link its German. I add the links just as prove that I did not make this up

Die Welt a highly recognized newspaper. Conservative and known for good reporting and balanced views.

Its full of made up false narrative.

Quote:

"A disappointing and partly dangerous test drive"

"The Display is a disappointment. The fine chiselt Graphic looks obsolete"

"... the Handling did not impress us...."

" No fun with the breaks, spongy and insensible..."

" .... the car rolls hard and is uncomfortable..."

"It is also due to the price policy that the demand for the Model 3 in the US has massively broken down. It did go around quickly that they have problems with delivery and customers who received one have problems with it"

Tesla Model 3 im Test: Dieses E-Auto ist eine Enttäuschung - WELT

Unfortunately thats not the only hit and fud piece these days. The UBS article as used for another one.

Articles are full with made up and easily to prove complete wrong content. Just think about it, they really claim that the demand for the 3 in the US has been broken down.

Unbelievable!

Did someone mock up a different car as a Model 3? I have trouble parsing any of that as being a discussion of a Model 3.

 

[Johan]

Same her ein Germany: Don't click the link its German. I add the links just as prove that I did not make this up

Die Welt a highly recognized newspaper. Conservative and known for good reporting and balanced views.

Its full of made up false narrative.

Quote:

"A disappointing and partly dangerous test drive"

"The Display is a disappointment. The fine chiselt Graphic looks obsolete"

"... the Handling did not impress us...."

" No fun with the breaks, spongy and insensible..."

" .... the car rolls hard and is uncomfortable..."

"It is also due to the price policy that the demand for the Model 3 in the US has massively broken down. It did go around quickly that they have problems with delivery and customers who received one have problems with it"

Tesla Model 3 im Test: Dieses E-Auto ist eine Enttäuschung - WELT

Unfortunately thats not the only hit and fud piece these days. The UBS article as used for another one.

Articles are full with made up and easily to prove complete wrong content. Just think about it, they really claim that the demand for the 3 in the US has been broken down.

Unbelievable!

We musn't forget that Germany is on outlier in this regard: VW, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche - need I say more? There are many incentives for conservative German news media to be reluctant toward Tesla. The part about failing demand is of course a blatant lie. The rest is "a matter of opinion" and as we all know, when it comes to taste there is no right or wrong. If the reviewer didn't like the looks, feel of the brakes, the "hard roll" etc. it's his perogative to write those things...

When he says the test drive was "partly dangerous" it seems from my reading (mind you german isn't my best second language) that he's refering to autopilout behaviour. He says:

"Doch es kommt immer wieder vor, dass sich der Autopilot auf eine anspruchsvolle Kurve einlässt, um dann mitten in der Biegung auszusteigen und die Kontrolle an den Fahrer zurückzugeben. Gleichzeitig schnellt das Lenkrad in die Mittellage zurück, das Auto begibt sich rapide in Richtung Fahrbahnrand – oder darüber hinaus, wenn man nicht sofort reagiert."

That seems to imply that Autopilot just suddenly "turns on" by itself and then turns off during a turn creating a dangerous situation. IS that how it behaves? I've driven Model S with autopilot, but never model 3. Isn't this a user error i.e. not understanding how Autopilot works?

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon Musk doesn't sleep. He waits..!

There’s a Chuck Norris joke in there.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Firstly, what you are talking about are not 'naked short positions' (which denote short positions without a backing loan of matching shares), but 'unhedged short positions' - and there's a big difference. Naked short positions are illegal, while unhedged short positions are common: the only requirement to create a short position is to post 102% of cash collateral on a mark-to-market basis.

Secondly, which idiot of an investment bank or market maker is going to sell shorts such a get-out-of a jail card and eat all the huge losses if a large short squeeze materializes??

Such out of the money options quickly get expensive if purchased in quantities, and if we sum up all the current $420+ call options open interest there's not nearly enough of these contracts to protect all the short interest ... (And that calculation makes the unrealistic assumption that all of the options contracts protect shorts and are not leveraged long positions.)

So options chain open interest data suggests that more than half of the 33 million short shares are not hedged with options.

I.e. most of them are probably bear-trapped at $320 price levels, without most of them having hedges, and a $420 buyout price is going to hurt them big time.

The open interest doesn't include the option embedded in the converts.

 

[SebastianR]

We musn't forget that Germany is on outlier in this regard: VW, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche - need I say more? There are many incentives for conservative German news media to be reluctant toward Tesla. The part about failing demand is of course a blatant lie. The rest is "a matter of opinion" and as we all know, when it comes to taste there is no right or wrong. If the reviewer didn't like the looks, feel of the brakes, the "hard roll" etc. it's his perogative to write those things...

Keep in mind that there is real panic in the German car industry: major car makers can't get cars produced these days due to WLTP standard (cars are being stored in the failed BER airport to wait until they are legal to be sold). The CEO of Audi is in jail. So it is not a pretty sight.

The biggest issue, however, is that as of 2019 there will be a special tax incentive for company cars. Granted, that includes hybrids, but the key thing is, that the German car makers are caught essentially naked: they would not have a single offering comparable to the Model 3 or the Model S. So, IF (and that's a big IF) Tesla can deliver a large number of Model 3 to Germany in 2019 and IF the Germans like the Model 3 this could be very interesting in the coming years... (Right now, Mercedes, Audi and BMW would be nowhere in Germany without being the company cars of choice. VW has also a large number of company sales but regular folks are buying them, too.).

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I’ve decided I’m in the market for a used X . Only problem is they are still out of my price range.

2017 X available for $84k at Tesla Inventory Search

 

[avoigt]

Keep in mind that there is real panic in the German car industry: major car makers can't get cars produced these days due to WLTP standard (cars are being stored in the failed BER airport to wait until they are legal to be sold). The CEO of Audi is in jail. So it is not a pretty sight.

The biggest issue, however, is that as of 2019 there will be a special tax incentive for company cars. Granted, that includes hybrids, but the key thing is, that the German car makers are caught essentially naked: they would not have a single offering comparable to the Model 3 or the Model S. So, IF (and that's a big IF) Tesla can deliver a large number of Model 3 to Germany in 2019 and IF the Germans like the Model 3 this could be very interesting in the coming years... (Right now, Mercedes, Audi and BMW would be nowhere in Germany without being the company cars of choice. VW has also a large number of company sales but regular folks are buying them, too.).

You're bringing up an important point.

The incentives for a company EV car will be double as high as an ICE or better to say you just pay half the taxes for it. Thats a lot of money. Company cars need range and Tesla is the only one that can provide it.

This law has been initiated because company cars are often bought and leased from larger corporations as well as the Mittelstand and sold after a few years as used cars. Usually the price drops dramatically at that point which makes this cars a good deal for everybody. IOW the plan is to bring more affordable EVs out there on the streets and that law is purposely designed for that.

If Tesla can execute in Germany next year they will be on top of the list ! The Leaf and I-Pace a.o. will compete as well but with the SC Network Tesla is hard to beat.

 

[Unpilot]

So with the relatively low volume the last few days ...it strikes me the large players are sitting on the sidelines.
It seems there is only a buying effort when the 320 level is broken.

Once all the T's are crossed and I's dotted....look out!

:not an advice of course

 

[cheshire cat]

Same her ein Germany: Don't click the link its German. I add the links just as prove that I did not make this up

Die Welt a highly recognized newspaper. Conservative and known for good reporting and balanced views.

Its full of made up false narrative.

Quote:

"A disappointing and partly dangerous test drive"

"The Display is a disappointment. The fine chiselt Graphic looks obsolete"

"... the Handling did not impress us...."

" No fun with the breaks, spongy and insensible..."

" .... the car rolls hard and is uncomfortable..."

"It is also due to the price policy that the demand for the Model 3 in the US has massively broken down. It did go around quickly that they have problems with delivery and customers who received one have problems with it"

Tesla Model 3 im Test: Dieses E-Auto ist eine Enttäuschung - WELT

Unfortunately thats not the only hit and fud piece these days. The UBS article as used for another one.

Articles are full with made up and easily to prove complete wrong content. Just think about it, they really claim that the demand for the 3 in the US has been breaking down.

Unbelievable!

Is this the same guy that is a big cheese on the "World Car Awards". And some sort of bureau head (Europe?) for Road and Track mag (US) --an esteemed publications??? If so sounds like he has bigger fish to fry than Tesla ---no conflict of interest ---heaven forfend !

 

[aubreymcfato]

All TSLA journalists are retweeting this article by Charley Grant, from WSJ:
How Two Musk Decisions in 2016 Put Tesla Into Trouble

 

[Johan]

All TSLA journalists are retweeting this article by Charley Grant, from WSJ:
How Two Musk Decisions in 2016 Put Tesla Into Trouble

"Tesla’s current troubles can be traced to two decisions made by CEO Elon Musk in 2016."

I doesn't become true regardless of how many times you repeat it...

Would be very interesting of the hard floor of more or less exactly $320 holds today too.

 

[Cosmacelf]

All TSLA journalists are retweeting this article by Charley Grant, from WSJ:
How Two Musk Decisions in 2016 Put Tesla Into Trouble

Thanks. Garbage article. No new info, just puts existing historical facts in the worst light possible. Full of innuendo.

 

[Fact Checking]

The open interest doesn't include the option embedded in the converts.

What you write is very misleading: 2019 convertible notes are equivalent to only about 2.5 million shares - much less that the 33 million shares short interest...

Much of the short interest is unhedged.

 

[EV forever]

Looks like the SP is stabilized around 320. Looking to add some more to those at 360 added last week.
I have been adding more in my personal brokerage account, hoping I can keep those after TSLAP even if the IRA ones have to be liquidated.

 

[Cosmacelf]

All TSLA journalists are retweeting this article by Charley Grant, from WSJ:
How Two Musk Decisions in 2016 Put Tesla Into Trouble

Here’s an excerpt with my comments to give you a flavor of it:

Tesla has several options to get out of its current jam [but it isn’t in one]. It could scale back production plans for the Model 3 to the point that it could produce them profitably [this literally makes no sense]. Tesla says it will turn a profit this quarter but given its history of overly optimistic forecasts, even persistently bullish analysts are skeptical, predicting it will lose $1.19 a share [sleight of hand, I don’t think the bullish analysts are this pessimistic]. But a profit is possible, largely because Model 3s are selling for $50,000 and more rather than the promised $35,000 [implies a broken promise, there is none, makes a positive into a negative]. A financial option, assuming the SEC lets it [WTF, no one in their right mind thinks that the SEC would block a Tesla fund raising], would be to sell stock, but Tesla has repeatedly said it has no plans to do so. [To sum up, we’ve assumed a crisis that doesn’t exist and shown that there is no way out of it].

 

[avoigt]

We musn't forget that Germany is on outlier in this regard: VW, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche - need I say more? There are many incentives for conservative German news media to be reluctant toward Tesla. The part about failing demand is of course a blatant lie. The rest is "a matter of opinion" and as we all know, when it comes to taste there is no right or wrong. If the reviewer didn't like the looks, feel of the brakes, the "hard roll" etc. it's his perogative to write those things...

When he says the test drive was "partly dangerous" it seems from my reading (mind you german isn't my best second language) that he's refering to autopilout behaviour. He says:

"Doch es kommt immer wieder vor, dass sich der Autopilot auf eine anspruchsvolle Kurve einlässt, um dann mitten in der Biegung auszusteigen und die Kontrolle an den Fahrer zurückzugeben. Gleichzeitig schnellt das Lenkrad in die Mittellage zurück, das Auto begibt sich rapide in Richtung Fahrbahnrand – oder darüber hinaus, wenn man nicht sofort reagiert."

That seems to imply that Autopilot just suddenly "turns on" by itself and then turns off during a turn creating a dangerous situation. IS that how it behaves? I've driven Model S with autopilot, but never model 3. Isn't this a user error i.e. not understanding how Autopilot works?

Well what you call "a matter of opinion" would then also include this statement:

"There is also an all wheel variation with another drive unit in front, the front 85l frunk is eliminated then."

Really, thats not an opinion but simply made up nonsense.

 

[cheshire cat]

Here’s an excerpt with my comments to give you a flavor of it:

Tesla has several options to get out of its current jam [but it isn’t in one]. It could scale back production plans for the Model 3 to the point that it could produce them profitably [this literally makes no sense]. Tesla says it will turn a profit this quarter but given its history of overly optimistic forecasts, even persistently bullish analysts are skeptical, predicting it will lose $1.19 a share [sleight of hand, I don’t think the bullish analysts are this pessimistic]. But a profit is possible, largely because Model 3s are selling for $50,000 and more rather than the promised $35,000 [implies a broken promise, there is none, makes a positive into a negative]. A financial option, assuming the SEC lets it [WTF, no one in their right mind thinks that the SEC would block a Tesla fund raising], would be to sell stock, but Tesla has repeatedly said it has no plans to do so. [To sum up, we’ve assumed a crisis that doesn’t exist and shown that there is no way out of it].

Thanks for the precise, but why is anyone even bothering with this crap. Next time he breaks out the glue I suggest that he opens the windows

 

[oneday]

Take this with a pile of salt.

I think today may be the last major sale for TSLA shares. I expect some snap, crackle, and pop on or before Monday. Especially with the flamethrower event Saturday in San Francisco.

At any moment news could come out and send the stock up. No way to really time this that I know of. So figured I share my “hunch”.

 

[XHabjab]

There’s a Chuck Norris joke in there.

If Chuck Norris and Elon Musk each went camping, Chuck would kill the bears raiding his tent. Elon would squeeze them.

 

[CatB]

That seems to imply that Autopilot just suddenly "turns on" by itself and then turns off during a turn creating a dangerous situation. IS that how it behaves? I've driven Model S with autopilot, but never model 3. Isn't this a user error i.e. not understanding how Autopilot works?

I have not had that experience in my M3 with autopilot. I suspect user error is correct - if you touch brake or move steering wheel, you can disengage autopilot, it will give you the warning chime and return control to you. As it should.