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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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That article is not even worth the effort for refuting. The dumb author used Microsoft buying LinkedIn as an example of stupid buyout. There was a bidding war FFS
no no no. article is actually good,
author says :p "wiping out all shorts.":p
Use that for spreading fear/love among nervous shorts, :D about their impending doom of >$13.98 Billion and being "short just a trifle cash" and stampeding elephants with simple truths AND quoting author.
rolling boulders, eh. :) love the price action (and Accumulation/Distribution line UP 60 million since 7/2)
 
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Amateurs at UBS!

Btw, I like how you named the PDF file :D

Yes UBS is arrogant, entitled and must be beholden to status quo wealthy clients. It really annoys me how UBS perpetually rains on Tesla's parade.
I'd like to see UBS reports get close scrutiny by someone knowledgeable and their many assumptions challenged; I suspect they would not hold up well under the microscope. I think Colin Langan's continuous sell rating stinks of bias.
Of course actual Tesla numbers will have the final word.
 
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Page 8 of the UBS report "Teardown Gives Us a View on Model 3 P&L". UBS actually published the report like this (my yellow highlight).

UBS also wrote another, much more embarrassing internal note:

"Please note that we more than halved the actual Tesla Model S/X margins of 28% from today down to 12.5% and applied them to the 2025 revenue, which was the only way we were able to reach the $185 price target. Tesla reaching the $185 price target is absolutely crucial for our mission: to be able to cover our 15 million shares TSLA short position.

Do not publish this on the front page."
But fortunately they didn't publish it, so we are still in suspense about which large investment bank the biggest TSLA short position holder could possibly be, now that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising the $420 merger and are out of the race!!
 
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Now getting back to what's pertinent to the Market Action thread. In fact some of you who only hang out here may be missing some good information in the General thread. Meanwhile those who peruse this thread for its intended purpose are forced to spend time wading through misplaced posts.

The TSLA $320 level has been receiving strong and continuous support today. It may indicate that one or more institutions want to make sure that the price is never again below there.
 
UBS also wrote another, much more embarrassing internal note:

"Please note that we more than halved the actual Tesla Model S/X margins of 28% from today down to 12.5% and applied them to the 2025 revenue, which was the only way we were able to reach the $185 price target. Tesla reaching the $185 price target is absolutely crucial for out mission: to be able to cover our 15 million shares TSLA short position.

Do not publish this on the front page."
But fortunately they didn't publish it, so we are still in suspense about which large investment bank the biggest TSLA short position holder could possibly be, now that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising the $420 merger and are out of the race!!

Who could it be...
Colin the Short.jpg
 
In fact some of you who only hang out here may be missing some good information in the General thread.

Suspect I'm one of those "some" as I don't add anything at all here other than a few laughs. However, I've come to feel comfortable here, like my local pub (bar to you yankees) where I don't exactly fit in, but kinda like the locals...
 
The TSLA $320 level has been receiving strong and continuous support today. It may indicate that one or more institutions want to make sure that the price is never again below there.

Was speculating about this earlier here: $320 is exactly $100 below the buyout price of $420, and if there's a stock buying moratorium between the going-private parties then $320 looks like a logical price to put a limit.

I.e. going-private buyers are allowed to initiate orders below $320 but not above. This would explain the trading pattern of this week so far, after the big drop.

But maybe today's price action falsifies this hypothesis ...

BTW, also saw the "spike seller" today - but he ran into the $320 wall. (So far at least.)

Edit: price now dipped below $320, but there's still buying pressure.
 
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Was speculating about this earlier here: $320 is exactly $100 below the buyout price of $420, and if there's a stock buying moratorium between the going-private parties then $320 looks like a logical price to put a limit.

I.e. going-private buyers are allowed to initiate orders below $320 but not above. This would explain the trading pattern of this week so far, after the big drop.

But maybe today's price action falsifies this hypothesis ...

BTW, also saw the "spike seller" today - but he ran into the $320 wall. (So far at least.)

Edit: price now dipped below $320, but there's still buying pressure.

And TSLA closed at $320.10 with significant end of day volume in the final 10 minutes, when price briefly dipped below $320.

Also someone hunted all those $319.90-ish stop orders and soaked up the liquidity - normally the breaching of such a strong line of support would have dipped the price to at least $317 - but it stayed above $319 this time on high volume and closed at $320.10.

Very curious price action!
 
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...The TSLA $320 level has been receiving strong and continuous support today. It may indicate that one or more institutions want to make sure that the price is never again below there.
Was speculating about this earlier here: $320 is exactly $100 below the buyout price of $420, and if there's a stock buying moratorium between the going-private parties then $320 looks like a logical price to put a limit.

I.e. going-private buyers are allowed to initiate orders below $320 but not above. This would explain the trading pattern of this week so far, after the big drop.

But maybe today's price action falsifies this hypothesis ...

BTW, also saw the "spike seller" today - but he ran into the $320 wall. (So far at least.)

Edit: price now dipped below $320, but there's still buying pressure.
And TSLA closed at $320.10 with significant end of day volume in the final 10 minutes, when price briefly dipped below $320.

Also someone hunted all those $319.90-ish stop orders and soaked up the liquidity - normally the breaching of such a strong line of support would have dipped the price to at least $317 - but it stayed above $319 this time on high volume and closed at $320.10.

Very curious price action!

Indeed, an ambush was briefly attempted about 10 minutes before the close, but today's unrelenting buying interest near $320 quickly brushed aside the insurgents. :cool:
 
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