Toyota FCV: Japan sales in April 2015, $69,000, US to follow

[hiroshiy]

@gameon:
I personally don't think Japanese government focuses solely on fool cell. They see some future for hydrogen for energy security standpoint as Japan has no oil, but for cars, it invests and subsidize in both fool cells and BEVs.

For example it plans to subsidize $20K per each FCV. For Leaf it subsidizes $7.8K. It also has budget for charging infrastructure - about $1B this year.

EDIT: amount of budget corrected.

 

[miimura]

It seems to me that many are overlooking the most likely process for refining hydrogen; i.e. by 'cracking' natural gas. And as I understand it, the least expensive method . . . and therefore the most likely to be used, releases a great deal of CO2 into the atmosphere, more in fact that an ICE in normal operation. Sure, the govt. can require that the CO2 that's generated be "sequestered", but if that adds appreciably to the cost, will big "oil money" be able to thwart the efforts of responsible legislators and override those regs? I'd say that's likely. At best, hydrogen FCV's are no more ecologically sound than BEV's, and quite likely far worse, imho.

"Big Oil Money" will also ensure that CO2 sequestration from reforming natural gas to Hydrogen never becomes a regulation.

Personally, I don't care if fuel cell cars are made or that hydrogen dispensing infrastructure is built. I just don't want the state to spend any public funds on equipment that does reforming. That is counter-productive to the stated goal of reducing pollution and GHG emissions, which is what the funds are allocated for.

 

[CalDreamin]

"Big Oil Money" will also ensure that CO2 sequestration from reforming natural gas to Hydrogen never becomes a regulation.

That's but one symptom of a much larger problem. As long as science deniers have so much influence in Congress, serious measures to address AGW in the US will continue to be grossly inadequate. And as long as the US drags its feet, the response from the rest of the world will likewise continue to be totally insufficient.

 

[ZsoZso]

I watched through the 75 minute press conference video on Green Car Reports:
Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan: Final Design, Price Revealed For Japan

Based on the Q&A session where they were avoiding to answer any technical detail question (such as battery type and size in the vehicle) as well as questions about production (which factory, number of vehicles), it seems to me this is mostly vapor-ware. I don't think they even have a working prototype of this particular vehicle, its only a "shell". They stated early on that people can now see the outside of the car and the technology / internals will be revealed later. They only have vague plans about reusing components from their hybrids for motor / batteries.

 

[KenN]

I think this article --> Why a hydrogen economy doesn't make sense -- really blows the FCV argument out of the water. Even if one only looks at the graphic, it's clear that hydrogen is a poor path to trod down.

 

[Reykjavik]

Also, one has to wonder why people insist on opposing fuel cell vehicles to electric vehicles, given that in both cases, the motor is powered by electrons

I'm not particularly opposed to fuel cells. I'm opposed to spending a lot of money on technology that isn't at all likely to work.

Fuel cells are expensive, more expensive than batteries. Hydrogen is expensive, about as expensive as gasoline. Based on that alone it would be quite a risk to bet on hydrogen.

Hydrogen isn't environmentally friendly, most of it comes from fossil fuel sources, creating it cleanly is less efficient than using wires and batteries, and will drive the price up.

Hydrogen (or gasoline) refueling isn't more convenient than plugging in at home.

Hydrogen infrastructure does not exist yet, while our electricity grid does (so does an oil infrastructure).

If you want to go into a lab and work on some of these issues, doing fundamental science that has wide potential for usage even if FCVs don't work out, great, that research is worth doing. But if you want to build a fleet of these things, I'm not helping you pay for the platinum catalyst in every one. I'm not helping you pay for hydrogen, in fact I think we should have a carbon fee for every ounce of CO2 you emit producing the hydrogen. And I'm sure as hell not going to stop supporting development of BEV support and fast charging infrastructure, because batteries are here today, and they match or exceed nearly every quality of FCVs.

A hydrogen economy doesn't work out on paper, bringing it into the real world doesn't make it any easier.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I watched through the 75 minute press conference video on Green Car Reports:
Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan: Final Design, Price Revealed For Japan

Based on the Q&A session where they were avoiding to answer any technical detail question (such as battery type and size in the vehicle) as well as questions about production (which factory, number of vehicles), it seems to me this is mostly vapor-ware. I don't think they even have a working prototype of this particular vehicle, its only a "shell". They stated early on that people can now see the outside of the car and the technology / internals will be revealed later. They only have vague plans about reusing components from their hybrids for motor / batteries.

They could maybe re-use the li-ion hybrid battery, but the motors and inverter aren't powerful enough.

 

[Zzzz...]

They could maybe re-use the li-ion hybrid battery, but the motors and inverter aren't powerful enough.

With Tesla switching to 2 motor drive, what do you think about 4 motor one, which is arguably the future of EV: think of torque vectoring... 4x Toyotas motors are not powerful enough? Well, don't get me wrong, FC would not take off EVER, need to visit hydrogen gas stations, safety concerns, hydrogen even more dangerous than gasoline never mind inefficiency of H production.

 

[CliffG]

Does Toyota really thinks that automobile buying public is that stupid??

Yes. And laughing all the way to the bank...

 

[wraithnot]

Yes. And laughing all the way to the bank...

Real people don't seem to be competing too hard to win a toyota fuel cell vehicle. Toyota is giving one away through a charity raffle and so far have only sold 136 tickets for a grand total of between $11,333 and $13,600 (tickets are $100 each or 6 for $500): Buy Now - $100 Could Win You The Toyota Fuel Cell Vehicle! - Online Fundraising Auction - BiddingForGood The raffle has been running for six days and only has four days left. At this number of tickets, I was briefly tempted to buy some tickets and toss the car up on craigslist or maybe even sell it for scrap platinum if I won, but then I realized the winner has to pay tax, title and license on the car and that will be kind of pricey since the MSRP is around $70,000.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

You still might get more than tax, title, and license back for parting it out as scrap, and oh what amazing headlines that would garner if you did! After GM and BMW crushed their much beloved EVs, it would be poetic justice.

I'd almost be willing to pitch in to make this happen.

 

[tom66]

A teardown before scrapping it would be interesting -- for example, the weight of platinum in the fuel cell. Is Toyota losing money @ $70k MSRP?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think it says a lot that Toyota isn't going to sell the FCV here in Norway until 2016 at the earliest.

The thing about Norway is that:

- There are no requirements for automakers to sell EVs or FCVs, and no incentives beyond the profit they might have for them to do so.
- EVs and FCVs have the exact same incentives.
- Fossil cars are taxed really heavily.

This makes Norway a mostly level playing field, where if you have the best tech at an attractive price point with sufficient profit, you will succeed and make oodles of money. That Toyota doesn't consider that an attractive proposition, that says to me that Toyota doesn't have the best tech and/or an attractive price point with sufficient profit. Maybe Toyota's problem is with the tech or the price point, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they're losing money on every car. The first FCVs in Europe will be sold as part of an EU project, and they're probably getting money from the EU on top of the cost of the cars to make it worth their while.

 

[Jaff]

I wonder if, or how closely Toyota is looking at this little case study of how poorly the ticket sales for this vehicle (technology) are proceeding? I hope they are paying attention, and I hope CARB and other California politicos are watching this example as well...there is a lesson for them here...

Real people don't seem to be competing too hard to win a toyota fuel cell vehicle. Toyota is giving one away through a charity raffle and so far have only sold 136 tickets for a grand total of between $11,333 and $13,600 (tickets are $100 each or 6 for $500): Buy Now - $100 Could Win You The Toyota Fuel Cell Vehicle! - Online Fundraising Auction - BiddingForGood The raffle has been running for six days and only has four days left. At this number of tickets, I was briefly tempted to buy some tickets and toss the car up on craigslist or maybe even sell it for scrap platinum if I won, but then I realized the winner has to pay tax, title and license on the car and that will be kind of pricey since the MSRP is around $70,000.

 

[hiroshiy]

Nikkei reported that Toyota initially planned to produce 700 FCVs in the first production, but reservations exceeded 1000.

Of course take this with a lot of salt! Maybe regional governments were forced to buy...

 

[Grendal]

Nikkei reported that Toyota initially planned to produce 700 FCVs in the first production, but reservations exceeded 1000.

Of course take this with a lot of salt! Maybe regional governments were forced to buy...

Considering the government incentives to buy the car, it is practically free. Who wouldn't be up for an advanced car for basically nothing?

 

[RobStark]

Japanese national government ~$20k rebate.

Toyota's hometown Aichi prefecture ~$10k rebate.

So $40k in Aichi Prefecture.

Subsidized hydrogen to match equivalent gasoline refueling.

Evidently not enough.

Prime Minister Abe has discussed giving away FCEV to jumpstart the market.

Japan considering offering free hydrogen cars because $30k incentives apparently not enough

 

[wraithnot]

I wonder if, or how closely Toyota is looking at this little case study of how poorly the ticket sales for this vehicle (technology) are proceeding? I hope they are paying attention, and I hope CARB and other California politicos are watching this example as well...there is a lesson for them here...

The Toyota Fuel Cell Vehicle charity raffle ended with only 267 tickets being sold- far short of their goal of 994 tickets: Buy Now - $100 Could Win You The Toyota Fuel Cell Vehicle! - Online Fundraising Auction - BiddingForGood
They only made between $22,300 and $26,700 for charity (depending on the breakdown of single $100 tickets or 6 tickets for $500) despite the the $68,703 MSRP (at least that is what they cost in Japan).

In contrast, bidding for the first US e-GOLF in a charity auction is already up to $33,500- which isn't too far off from the $35,445 MSRP: Charitybuzz | Take Home the US' First Ever Volkswagen e-Golf

 

[Jaff]

Thanks for the update Sir!

Roughly only 25% of the tickets sold...

via Rob, "30K in incentives not enough..."

Things not lookin' too rosy right now for Toyota (nor HFC vehicles)...:scared:

 

[tftf]

The Toyota FCV will be officially launched in Japan next week (Nov 18):

Toyota To Launch Hydrogen Fuel Cell Sedan in Japan Next Week, But Faced With €100,000 Loss Per Car in Europe - Transport Evolved: Cleaner, Greener, Safer and Smarter

Includes some pessimistic estimates from third parties about total roll-out and infrastructure costs:

Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan