This will not end well for BMW

[Swampgator]

For BMW in the US, the X3 is their best selling vehicle. The X3 is the source of most of the profits for BMW in the USA.

I just spec'd out a M40i X3 with white interior and gray 20" wheels. It costs $63K. My wifes Model Y with same trim will cost $56K

The Model Y is the same weight as the BMW with a full tank of gas. The Model Y is as fast as the BMW, cheaper to run, has better tech, and will probably have handling as good as the BMW because of the low center of gravity. I will not need to shut the motor down at a stoplight to meet fuel economy standards. It will not need oil changes and other ICE maintenance.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3 on the sedan side. I expect the same in the CUV space. Their car sales were down 14% last year, with the light trucks (X1-6) up 35% and accounting for all of the growth last year. How is BMW going to survive this?
What is their plan? Plug in hybrids? There are only so many people that will pay 8K more to get less performance and features.

I think BMW will be the first OEM to go bankrupt. Probably in 2022. They have about 12 billion in cash. Almost all of their assets are ICE (stranded). They have already committed to spend at least 17 billion for batteries and EV conversion. Where does that money come from once their CUV sales tank?

 

[jmaddr]

If VW can survive dieselgate and all it's worldwide fines and associated costs, BMW can survive the industry shift towards electrification, they just need to do so quickly.

 

[brkaus]

BMW still has the looks of an SUV. So, it depends on how the consumers accept the CUV platform over the SUV platform.

I much prefer the inside of the Model 3 over the X3. A family member just purchased an X3 - I find it very confusing inside.

 

[sparcs]

BMW X4 specs seem like a very close match for exterior size. Tesla is definitely putting out a very competitive product.

 

[Jacopa]

BMW X4 specs seem like a very close match for exterior size. Tesla is definitely putting out a very competitive product.

I was looking at X4 before the Y really got spooled up. I have been driving BMW's for years and have loved them. The x4 was gonna be the next in the long line of BMW's. I think they will survive, no question, but Elon used the 3 series as a benchmark for the M3, and I'm also convinced the X4 was the target size for the MY. It's no coincidence that the exterior specs are the same.

 

[garrett5688]

BMW dealers about to be overwhelmed with X3/X4 test drives so people can get a feel for the Model Y size/space

 

[NovemberXray]

Did you see this? Tesla Model Y Compared To BMW's X5M & X6M High-Performance SUVs | CleanTechnica

I think it's even more wildly in Tesla's favor. I had an X5 and the Model Y is smaller on the outside, bigger on the inside, cheaper, WAY faster, and in my opinion (assuming it handles anything like the Model 3) also WAY more fun to drive. That's all without even considering the cost of ownership, zero emissions, and light years better technology.

I expect the auto industry is going to look very different in 2030.

 

[garrett5688]

I don’t think it can be cross shopped with the X5 due to the shape. “Real” SUVs are boxier and can fit bigger/bulkier cargo. Volume is good but it needs to be usable.

X4/X6 are in trouble though.

 

[cusetownusa]

I don’t think it can be cross shopped with the X5 due to the shape. “Real” SUVs are boxier and can fit bigger/bulkier cargo. Volume is good but it needs to be usable.

X4/X6 are in trouble though.

I agree...wonder if Tesla will come out with a more traditional looking SUV sometime.

 

[NY_Rob]

If VW can survive dieselgate and all it's worldwide fines and associated costs, BMW can survive the industry shift towards electrification, they just need to do so quickly.

Full electrification has proven much harder to actually pull off then imagined by legacy car makers.

Presently, VW has 20,000 ID3's sitting idle in rented parking lots because of "massive software problems"... not one has ever been delivered to a paying customer. They are forecasting months long delays in fixing the software.

Up to now, BMW has at best payed lip service to full EV development. Unless they have some super secret EV in development which is past beta and ready for manufacturing, it may be years before they bring a meaningful EV to market.

Surprisingly, Toyota- the company which literally started the hybrid revolution.. has offered nothing for EV buyers... it's going to take them years to catch up.

Ford has their EV Mustang, lets see how that works out... who knows- it may be a nice track car (GT version has 459 horsepower and 612 lb.-ft. of torque)?

GM has a solid track record with the Volt and EV Bolt. Supposedly they will have new EV offerings very soon. They have been working on EV's for 10+ yrs now... at least they have a clue.

Chrysler... who cares what they do.

 

[Georgia_Y]

I know this is a hyperbolic post claiming the end of a company in under two years.

I have a Y due to arrive this month and currently drive an X3 M40i. Also have driven a 3 before so I have a good understanding of the vehicles. The BMW is a good amount ahead of the Tesla in luxury. Performance wise, I know my Y Performance will destroy the X3. However, I’ve never been in a spot where the BMW wasn’t fast enough. I would argue that certain pieces of the BMW tech stack are better from a functional perspective while Tesla has much better driving assistants.

Since the Y is arriving early, I will have more time to compare the two but I know that simple stuff like cooled seats, CarPlay and the 3D parking system will be missed.

 

[sparcs]

I have a Y due to arrive this month and currently drive an X3 M40i.

Will be interesting to read your perspective once you have some real miles in the Y. Please post back when you do.

 

[Casmium]

I think it will be many years still for most people do fully switch to EV, mostly due to misinformation or lack of knowledge on EV's. The other reason is a lot of people go from leasing one car to the next, so if you can't can delivery from Tesla for a model Y within a couple of weeks that will keep those people going back to the ICE of their choice.

Not sure about you but I've had my Model 3 for 18 months and even after telling people i work with about the range they still don't believe that they could manage it, even though they could pull off charging once a week with their commute and we have a Lvl2 20A charger at work, and each of them drive directly past a supercharger. They still think it would be easier to stop at a gas station, and they still seem surprised when you say you went to Niagara falls on the weekend(220km round trip) and ask where do you charge when you go there and seem confused when you say, i charged here at work before i left and i'll probably charge again tomorrow because i still have 40% range left after making that trip.

 

[Aarons12]

BMW still has the looks of an SUV. So, it depends on how the consumers accept the CUV platform over the SUV platform.

I much prefer the inside of the Model 3 over the X3. A family member just purchased an X3 - I find it very confusing inside.

i am about to turn in my 2017 mercedes e-300. all the controls are so confusing and redundant that i never even bothered to use them all. looking forward to simplicity in the Y

 

[Swampgator]

I think it will be many years still for most people do fully switch to EV, mostly due to misinformation or lack of knowledge on EV's. The other reason is a lot of people go from leasing one car to the next, so if you can't can delivery from Tesla for a model Y within a couple of weeks that will keep those people going back to the ICE of their choice.

Not sure about you but I've had my Model 3 for 18 months and even after telling people i work with about the range they still don't believe that they could manage it, even though they could pull off charging once a week with their commute and we have a Lvl2 20A charger at work, and each of them drive directly past a supercharger. They still think it would be easier to stop at a gas station, and they still seem surprised when you say you went to Niagara falls on the weekend(220km round trip) and ask where do you charge when you go there and seem confused when you say, i charged here at work before i left and i'll probably charge again tomorrow because i still have 40% range left after making that trip.

Well both of my business partners bought a Tesla after driving mine. Telling people is not as effective as letting them experience the drive.

 

[cusetownusa]

I know this is a hyperbolic post claiming the end of a company in under two years.

I have a Y due to arrive this month and currently drive an X3 M40i. Also have driven a 3 before so I have a good understanding of the vehicles. The BMW is a good amount ahead of the Tesla in luxury. Performance wise, I know my Y Performance will destroy the X3. However, I’ve never been in a spot where the BMW wasn’t fast enough. I would argue that certain pieces of the BMW tech stack are better from a functional perspective while Tesla has much better driving assistants.

Since the Y is arriving early, I will have more time to compare the two but I know that simple stuff like cooled seats, CarPlay and the 3D parking system will be missed.

Before I even thought about getting a Tesla I told myself that my number 1 requirement for my next car will be CarPlay. I was dissapoiinted to find out that Tesla doesn't have CarPlay. Maybe its not necessary with Tesla? The 3D parking would be great as well.

I am also hoping that the Y is quiet inside at highway speeds, similar to most of the luxury brands.

 

[cusetownusa]

Well both of my business partners bought a Tesla after driving mine. Telling people is not as effective as letting them experience the drive.

I wish I new someone that had a Tesla so that I could take one for a test drive. They are very rare around here. A test drive may be what I need to push me over the edge and just buy the Y.

 

[jboy210]

I agree BMW has issues. But so will Mercedes, Lexus, etc.

The Model 3 has already crushed all of their small sedans in the US. The Model Y will likely do the same for their Small SUV/CUV sales.

 

[jboy210]

BMW still has the looks of an SUV. So, it depends on how the consumers accept the CUV platform over the SUV platform.

I much prefer the inside of the Model 3 over the X3. A family member just purchased an X3 - I find it very confusing inside.

Agreed. Before I go my Mode X I had an 2017 X3. I gave it to my daughter and drove it a few times after getting the X. I could not believe all of the knobs and dials. Amd 90% of them I never used. And what a mess i-Drive is. The only think I miss is the bird-eye parking camera, and the HUD (we had almost all the options on the X3). The maps on the BMW are a disaster and the screens are tiny. And why do I have to turn it off and on? Especially coming from an X with self locking door. I have walked away from the X3 with it still idling.

 

[Watts_Up]

For BMW in the US, the X3 is their best selling vehicle. The X3 is the source of most of the profits for BMW in the USA.

I just spec'd out a M40i X3 with white interior and gray 20" wheels. It costs $63K. My wifes Model Y with same trim will cost $56K

The Model Y is the same weight as the BMW with a full tank of gas. The Model Y is as fast as the BMW, cheaper to run, has better tech, and will probably have handling as good as the BMW because of the low center of gravity. I will not need to shut the motor down at a stoplight to meet fuel economy standards. It will not need oil changes and other ICE maintenance.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3 on the sedan side. I expect the same in the CUV space. Their car sales were down 14% last year, with the light trucks (X1-6) up 35% and accounting for all of the growth last year. How is BMW going to survive this?
What is their plan? Plug in hybrids? There are only so many people that will pay 8K more to get less performance and features.

I think BMW will be the first OEM to go bankrupt. Probably in 2022. They have about 12 billion in cash. Almost all of their assets are ICE (stranded). They have already committed to spend at least 17 billion for batteries and EV conversion. Where does that money come from once their CUV sales tank?

BMW will make a "Self Charging" X3, and will make their fans happy.

Note: A lot of people live in condos without any charging installation or park in the street,
or even have a house but don't want to bother, or spend any money, installing a plug at home.​

Most of the drivers just want to find a Supercharger at a corner street where they can charge their EV in 5 minutes once a week.

Basically: "5 minutes charging or Bust."

So BMW is going the Toyota way with Fuell Cells.​