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This Motor Industry Will Self Destruct In... ?

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There will continue to be a market for diesel powered vehicles a long way into the future, petrol however is likely to continue as a hobby as you suggest.

Why? Using Australia as an example, we have a huge expanse of open land that is traversable only by 4WD, in some cases requiring a Toyota Landcruiser, Nissan Patrol, etc to carry 220 litres of diesel to be able to make it between fuel stops. For these sorts of trips to be made using electric 4WD's we would need the following to occur:
  • A substantial cost reduction in stationary energy storage to allow remote area fuel stops to store energy captured from solar, wind, etc.
  • A huge increase in the energy density of EV battery storage
In addition to the above, military forces will need the ability to take and hold terrain in areas where there is no supporting infrastructure, currently that need is met by diesel fueled vehicles and supply chains. That said there will be opportunities for EV's in a military context, it's just not going to replace a large portion of the fleet in the medium term.
Those are niche applications with insignificant market.
For the military, the diesel supply chain is a heavy burden and cost. Solar electric has no fuel to transport.
 
The noose is already tightening around the neck of ICE cars.

In many European cities you must park your ICE car several miles outside the city center, and take a shuttle bus into those congestion zones. Electric vehicles are permitted as well as hybrids as long as they can make the trip from the edge of the exclusion zone and back out on electric power alone.

In California and several other states emission and fuel economy are on the way to be so restrictive that only electric or hydrogen will be qualified to drive in their states.

Feds also are clamping down, requiring gas users to purchase expensive offsets and credits from more eco companies to offset the expenses of cleaning up after their pollution, and curing citizens of the pollution caused illnesses.

More and more governments are experimenting with ordering significant quantities of electric vehicles for their municipal needs, such as busses, police cars, fire engines, taxi fleets, city car fleets for tourists, meter readers, and soon for mail delivery.

The writing is on the wall and just over the last year we are seeing more serious commitments by the major manufacturers to develop and produce all electric vehicles after seeing the good reception of the public to their earlier hybrids.

People now are interested in my Model X like they used to be drawn to my Viper. The questions are amazingly the same...How fast does it go, what is the mileage, how much does it cost, can I have a ride, are you single. (Just joking with that last one)

The interest seems to be universal. I talk to kids, grand parents, students, gear heads, mechanics, girls, guys, all ages, all races, all religions. Seems that everybody wants to see what the future is bringing.

No more smelly cars.
 
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Those are niche applications with insignificant market.
For the military, the diesel supply chain is a heavy burden and cost. Solar electric has no fuel to transport.
The sheer volume of solar panels and stationary storage required to provide adequate supply of electricity far outweighs the logistics burden of diesel fuel.

As I said there is a role for electric vehicles in a military context, but there is no way it makes sense at a FOB or in an expeditionary role. Not until the energy density of battery tech comes close to that of diesel.

As for off road civilian use, you may call it niche but vast swathes of my country need these vehicles to live, and I imagine there are parts of the US where the same is true.
 
The sheer volume of solar panels and stationary storage required to provide adequate supply of electricity far outweighs the logistics burden of diesel fuel.

As I said there is a role for electric vehicles in a military context, but there is no way it makes sense at a FOB or in an expeditionary role. Not until the energy density of battery tech comes close to that of diesel.

As for off road civilian use, you may call it niche but vast swathes of my country need these vehicles to live, and I imagine there are parts of the US where the same is true.
The US military is using solar because of the high cost of transporting diesel to difficult bases.
Nobody lives in the vast swaths of the interior so the few people traveling there are insignificant to the market.
 
Be very careful what you wish for. There is a huge part of the NA economy that depends on the ICE one way or another. It will need to adjust.
Cars will still be manufactured and people will still drive.
The only part of the economy which will be affected (hopefully) will be the oil industry. Hopefully that will die and leave a lot of stranded assets. Bad news for oil investors. Good news for the environment.
 
The sheer volume of solar panels and stationary storage required to provide adequate supply of electricity far outweighs the logistics burden of diesel fuel.

As I said there is a role for electric vehicles in a military context, but there is no way it makes sense at a FOB or in an expeditionary role. Not until the energy density of battery tech comes close to that of diesel.

As for off road civilian use, you may call it niche but vast swathes of my country need these vehicles to live, and I imagine there are parts of the US where the same is true.
Here's some info on the military use of solar

The military has utilized portable solar arrays to power “fixed-site” locations, many of which are very remote and depend on off-grid power. Solar reduces demand of traditional generators at these discreet locations and in turn, limits the need for costly and dangerous fuel resupply missions that put personnel at risk.

Operational solar also provides these bases with dependable power that is easily portable, compared to obtrusive, heavy, and at times unreliable generators that are often targets for enemy fire.

Enlisting the Sun: Powering the U.S. Military with Solar Energy 2013
 
The US military is using solar because of the high cost of transporting diesel to difficult bases.
Nobody lives in the vast swaths of the interior so the few people traveling there are insignificant to the market.
The military use what is mission appropriate. Are you aware of just how many solar panels and batteries you would need to provide electricity to just a single vehicle? And when that vehicle depletes it's battery 300km from that power source how will you recharge it?

With a diesel vehicle you drop in a few Jerry cans.

And nobody lives in the vast swathes of the interior? I think you are living in a world of alternative facts if you believe that.
 
Here's some info on the military use of solar

The military has utilized portable solar arrays to power “fixed-site” locations, many of which are very remote and depend on off-grid power. Solar reduces demand of traditional generators at these discreet locations and in turn, limits the need for costly and dangerous fuel resupply missions that put personnel at risk.

Operational solar also provides these bases with dependable power that is easily portable, compared to obtrusive, heavy, and at times unreliable generators that are often targets for enemy fire.

Enlisting the Sun: Powering the U.S. Military with Solar Energy 2013
What you mention is nothing new. I've seen battery + solar in mil use for at least a decade.

There is a big difference between stationary storage and EV's. As in my prior post you can't drop a Jerry can full of electrons to an EV that's run out of power.
 
The military use what is mission appropriate. Are you aware of just how many solar panels and batteries you would need to provide electricity to just a single vehicle? And when that vehicle depletes it's battery 300km from that power source how will you recharge it?

With a diesel vehicle you drop in a few Jerry cans.

And nobody lives in the vast swathes of the interior? I think you are living in a world of alternative facts if you believe that.

For permanent bases with a lot of land around them, solar makes sense in a lot of cases (Thule airbase probably not, but any sunny location it would be great). Many US bases have enough land around they could install several MW if not a GW of solar.

For combat equipment it's not the greatest idea, but just reducing fossil fuel use by 10% would be a huge savings. The US military is the single largest user of fossil fuels in the world.
 
For permanent bases with a lot of land around them, solar makes sense in a lot of cases (Thule airbase probably not, but any sunny location it would be great). Many US bases have enough land around they could install several MW if not a GW of solar.

For combat equipment it's not the greatest idea, but just reducing fossil fuel use by 10% would be a huge savings. The US military is the single largest user of fossil fuels in the world.
Totally agree, on permanent bases Solar+storage makes sense and there is no reason why white fleet vehicles can't be EV's either.
 
The military use what is mission appropriate. Are you aware of just how many solar panels and batteries you would need to provide electricity to just a single vehicle? And when that vehicle depletes it's battery 300km from that power source how will you recharge it?

With a diesel vehicle you drop in a few Jerry cans.

And nobody lives in the vast swathes of the interior? I think you are living in a world of alternative facts if you believe that.
Outback population 700,000 out of 23 million is 3%. Nobody lives there.
 
And what happens when oil demand gets so low that gas stations start to close? Now, gas car owners will have range anxiety and to make is worse, they can't fill-up at home.

Sure, the hobbyist will make the trip to get gas, but for everyday drivers, it will be a hassle. EVs are already more convenient in general than gas (except on very long trips)

I agree with the fact that EVs are going to take-over very quickly and that lower cost batteries will help move them forward even faster, however, I think the above closing gas station scenario will be the final nail in the coffin for ICE.
 
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Remember though that people don't replace their vehicles that often. It'll take 15-20 years to cycle out fossils, even if we started selling 100% EV from today on.

Could happen faster possibly...

ICE owners start to get squeezed as re-sale values start to plummet.

No one wants an ICE car anymore, like a flip-phone, starts a rush to the exits.

Everyone will want to avoid getting stuck with the last "worth nothing" ICE car.

And then, with lack of demand, gas stations start closing, and range anxiety flips over to ICE cars.

Plus ICE cars become the secondhand smokers in a restaurant, everyone will start giving owners funny looks like "why are you putting exhaust into my town???"

And then a generation grows up with "you mean your car isn't just charged when you wake up? you have to go somewhere to get liquid fuel? what a pain! uh, no thanks."

And boom, it's over.
 
Could happen faster possibly...
[...]
And boom, it's over.

Only fly in that ointment is a lack of supply. If you can't get a (decent) EV because Tesla has a 6-month waiting list, and you need a car today because your old one isn't worth fixing, you're probably going to end up with another ICE. (Which is how I ended up in a Volt - wife's car went "hyurrrk" and the Model 3 was not ready yet - so she got my Prius...)
 
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