brian45011
Active Member
ca 40+% for the high option mix high ASP Model 3.
What do you think the GM% is on a fully optioned P100D X the prices out for about $155,000 (delivered)?
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
ca 40+% for the high option mix high ASP Model 3.
Huh? It sounds like you haven't followed TSLA stock movement for long. Are you aware that this current dip of 12.5% from a local high of $317 back on 5/10 hasn't even hit the level of an average dip yet? This is very typical TSLA stock movement. Check back in a couple of weeks and it will likely have climbed 10%+. If a short squeeze is coming, it's going to take some extremely positive news that catches some by surprise. IMO, that doesn't appear likely for a while, but this particular dip has nothing to do with whether or not a short squeeze may happen.Can we all agree there’s no more short squeezes? Elon predicting another short squeeze is about as believable as FSD capability.
i don't think the overall asp will ever be low 40s.
I dont feel like its reasonable to assume
1) ASP of over 45k
AND
2) Demand of over 100k a year, let alone 200k
You have to pick one or the other. 50k+ is basically mid size luxury sedan, which the TOP selling car in 2017 sold just over 55k in the US
Mid-size luxury cars - U.S. sales by model 2017 | Statistic
Obviously that is just the US, and you can average in some lower spec'd M3's that will capture some of the entry level luxury car demographic, and maybe somehow the market reverses trend and starts growing (doubtful), but from just an eye test, it seems like to get to 200k/yr demand you have to have an ASP in the low 40s, and my personal opinion is the M3 won't even have that much demand @ 40k without the FIT credit. I don't feel like many bull cases really capture what the total market is for 50k cars. The whole "best selling mid size luxury car already" or whatever was in the update letter is incredibly misleading since the M3 has 2 years of backlog to work through.
What's your estimate?
I believe Elon has stated they expect something like $42K ASP overall.
What do you think the GM% is on a fully optioned P100D X the prices out for about $155,000 (delivered)?
And now we have the loaded/P/AWD price at $78K
$42K on a $35K-78K price range vehicle doesn't seem out of whack...
My take on the $78K - $82K M3 is someone (probably Deepak) told Elon the Company is in big trouble unless they can get the ASP to move higher. On that point, good for them. If there is a huge demand for those versions of the car, I may need to rethink my short thesis.
On the other hand, how many people have $1,000 deposits locked up in the hopes of a $35K version? One of two things have to happen there, either the $35K model gets built or they come clean and offer refunds.
That 78k$ is without autopilot! I think the take rate for AP is going to be >70% for the fully loaded car, may even be almost 100%. So I think the average ASP might well come in at 45-50k.
I think the P100D probably has at least a 50% GM, best guesstimate would be ~55% or even more.
Going another way, the difference is in large pack, improved materials, bigger wheels, autopilot etc. So compared to the base 75D with probably 15% GM at ca 80k$ most of the added options to get to the almost double price are options that have 50-100% GM. So averaging at 75% on those we get cost at 80*0.85+75*0.25=86.75k so let's round to 85k. So that would bring the GM to 45%. So yeah, ballpark estimate would be 50%
how many people have $1,000 deposits locked up in the hopes of a $35K version? One of two things have to happen there, either the $35K model gets built or they come clean and offer refunds.
And now we have the loaded/P/AWD price at $78K
$42K on a $35K-78K price range vehicle doesn't seem out of whack...
The difficulty in obtaining refunds is well documented. What I’m saying they should do is come clean and either give a date for the $35K version or say it’s never coming.Offer refunds? Ha! They have a standing offer to give refunds. Anytime someone wants a refund they get it. And yet they don't -- at least on a net basis. The deposits that were converted to sold cars, or refunded, were replaced by yet more deposits.
Tesla shouldn't sell the cheaper cars before they come closer to satisfying the demand for the higher margin cars. And -- wow that demand just keeps going.
I agree you should rethink if the $35k Model 3 goes the way of the S 40/60 --- the demand exceeds the supply for the higher margin cars, so why sell the lower margin car?
Yeah, it does. At least for the next couple of quarters. You know what’s going to happen based on what’s already happened - people love an optioned out Tesla. I can see the MSP starting to drop into those low 40’s sometime in 2019 except that as M3 enters new markets up it goes again. So maybe 2020 it settles into the low 40s.
The difficulty in obtaining refunds is well documented. What I’m saying they should do is come clean and either give a date for the $35K version or say it’s never coming.
The difficulty in obtaining refunds is well documented. What I’m saying they should do is come clean and either give a date for the $35K version or say it’s never coming.
I agree with you, but it perplexing that management reduced its gross margin guidance to 20% in 2H18, despite high ASP. Thoughts?
You make big financial bets based on assumptions like this? Apparently, the idea is to make the story fit your theory. Sorry to say but that kind of assuming is likely to get you in some serious trouble here.My take on the $78K - $82K M3 is someone (probably Deepak) told Elon the Company is in big trouble unless they can get the ASP to move higher. On that point, good for them. If there is a huge demand for those versions of the car, I may need to rethink my short thesis.