tftf on SA. Tired of him yet?

[fjm9898]

I know most of us have given up on SA due to the constant bombardment of BS that comes out of it, but I will still admit i give it a read every now and then.

There have been a few Long articles int eh past few weeks, mainly why i still check SA just to see what the longs point out, even though its usually nothing we dont already know here.

but my gripe is with tftf. He is on every Tesla article running his mouth in the comments section. Not like i have gotten into it with him, because we all know SA admins will be all over my ass. I my latest response to his garbage (if SA even allows it to be posted) I gave him a challenge, two fold. One to shut his valuation trap hole until this pull back he expects happens then he can gloat all over me, and secondly, if it does come then i challenged him to compare portfolios when the dust settles. Some thing tells me, i am still going to end up way out ahead of him.

Latest SA article - Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla's Guidance Of 21K Units In 2013 Is A Lowball, Expect At Least 23K - Seeking Alpha

Anyway, end rant. My flight was delayed two hours so i am stilling here bored in Japan waiting for my flight to Singapore for leg two of my 3 vacation and had nothing else better to do.

I held all my positions while on this vacation and i think i am even or slightly up. Crazy to see the NASDAQ so disconnected from tracking with the DOW recently. I will see you boys on the other side. Lets hope for a good Fed report Wednesday!

 

[JRP3]

Yes, he's very annoying, as is tomfrompv, Miro Kerfut or whatever his name is, and tippydog. There is another one who's name escapes me, all he does is talk about how the Model S can't work on the Autobahn in Germany. High volume FUD stirrers, the garbage ratio is getting so high I just stop reading the comments if I see them blitzkrieging them.

 

[mershaw2001]

Frankly if those are the best arguments that the shorts can come up with, I'm glad to see them spitting them out over and over again because it tells me that I have analyzed the situation properly. If they raise an issue which I am not aware of, then i usually expect a tesla tuesday incoming.

 

[stephenpace]

@JRP3: You do yeoman's work over there, JRP. I always enjoy reading your responses.

 

[JRP3]

Glad you appreciate the effort. I'm getting a little burnt out though, not as much fun any more since the level of debate has actually dropped while the sheer volume has increased, and I get tired of going over the same points again and again. Tesla keeps declawing the bears, it's almost sad to watch them flail about.

 

[SciGuy13]

Yes, he's very annoying, as is tomfrompv, Miro Kerfut or whatever his name is, and tippydog. There is another one who's name escapes me, all he does is talk about how the Model S can't work on the Autobahn in Germany. High volume FUD stirrers, the garbage ratio is getting so high I just stop reading the comments if I see them blitzkrieging them.

I think sharkdude is the worst.

 

[peet365]

I am big fan of Tesla and Elon and I hope to buy Model S or Model E in 3-4 years, but I think that some of the arguments tftf makes are very close to truth. I think that everybody here agree that today´s price of shares is based on assumptions that Model X and Model E will be huge worldwide success, Tesla will be able to overcame problems with suppliers and scale up production 20 times from today’s level in 4-5 years and its supercharger will be fastest charging system on the market. So I agree with him that in long term it doesn’t matter if Tesla sales 20.000, 24.000, even 30.000 this year. So if you want long term rise of tesla stocks those 3 things must be fulfilled otherwise fundamentals won´t be there. Also he is right that you cannot extrapolate sales in Norway to the rest of Europe. Because of huge taxes on high performance and high weight ICE cars in Norway and because of fact that Model S, as electric vehicle, is exempted from those taxes, price of Models S Performance in Norway is appr. only 25% of BMW M5. This is valid only in Norway. In the rest of Europe support for EV is much smaller than in USA or nonexistent. Similarly he is right about Hong kong and Singapur those are small areas cities where Model S excels and fits in perfectly. Also in Europe we have much more of smaller cities which are spread all over the continent, so you need much more superchargers to cover it. I make several 300+ miles trips per month to 3 different destinations. According to Tesla plans none of them will be possible at the beginning of 2015. Am I saying that because of that Model S is not suitable for European market? No, but I believe we need more Superchargers per 1.000 square miles than USA, maybe by factor 2 or 3.
On the other hand, concerning tftf´s comments on CCS charging system, I am not concern about it. Tesla can make adapter as they did for chademo. However if CCS or any other system supported with big automakers will catch up to Supercharger speed, it will not put Tesla out of the game, but Tesla will lose its competitive advantage. Overtime advantage in charging speed between systems will decrease and then it will be only about how many chargers are available. If, in 5 years Supercharger will be capable of 250 and competitive system 170 KW, it won’t be that big difference as those 80 KW represent today.
I am from Central Europe and I am probably the one with whom JRP3 is annoyed because of mentioning problem on Autobahn in Germany. I made lots of pro Tesla comments on SA so it is not true that I am not talking about anything else. But if everybody else drives 100 mph do you want to be the one who drive 80 mph in your 80.000 EUR car? Magic of Model S is that it is the first electric car that you can put your family in and drive almost the same way or better as any ICE car. With speeds over 100 this magic does not work very well. Model S is an American car and if you will watch some of Model S reviews from Europe, you will find out that we in Europe are much more concern about quality of materials used in interior as you are in USA. Interior design and quality is big part of why American cars are not selling that good in Europe. Almost every review even if overall positive points to this problem. For example Model S which was present this week in IAA Frankfurt - biggest car show in Europe had after 3 days cracks in leather on the side of rear right seat. You certainly couldn´t see this problem in any Germany luxury car producer in Frankfurt, even though their cars experienced much bigger traffic than Model S. IMHO if Tesla wants to sell Model S and X in the luxury category successfully in Germany long term, they will have to improve quality of interior and while adding some luxury hardware that is missing at the moment. Is it doable in 2 years while keeping margins? Absolutely, but please don´t overreact to someone who points to those shortcomings. As I said, I am big fan of Tesla, but even though price of gas on average is doubled here compared to USA, sales in Europe don´t have to be that great as some here or on SA are predicting. Also great argument which works in USA: “bringing manufacturing jobs back to USA” certainly does not work in Germany.

 

[brianman]

Welcome to the forum.

Unsolicited advice: Use the Enter key more. My head hurts.

 

[Krugerrand]

My head hurts.

You got off lightly. My eyes are now pointing in opposite directions.

 

[Altimas]

Having the bears come out and play is actually a good thing, it brings awareness to everyone that cares. I learned a lot reading the comments from both sides in the SA comments especially strong counter arguments to Tesla criticisms.

 

[JRP3]

I am from Central Europe and I am probably the one with whom JRP3 is annoyed because of mentioning problem on Autobahn in Germany. I made lots of pro Tesla comments on SA so it is not true that I am not talking about anything else.

The person I was referring to was "solucky" I believe, and I don't remember seeing any positive posts from him on SA, but maybe I missed them. All he ever does is say "Tesla can't sell in Germany"

 

[tftf]

Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.


I don't know why you feel to need to discuss me and not my comments. I'm interested in discussing valuation of TSLA, the stock and Tesla, the company (or rather I was, I won't comment more on TSLA until there's major news).

Funny enough, when I posted a positive note about the company (which I do, remember I was long TSLA last year until it reached my PT and followed the company since before the IPO) I got a lot of likes:

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla Battery Swap Is A No-Go - Seeking Alpha

This entry got 18 likes (not that I care for likes, just to make the point). That comment was not better articulated than any of my bearish comments on TSLA - rather it was "right" comment for all the people long TSLA.

I'm sure my bearish TSLA comments would get 30-50 "unlikes" if such a feature existed on SeekingAlpha. You may want to ask yourselves if you are not in a herding/groupthink bubble given the stock's current valuation.

If anyone is interested, I just wrote a number of Instablogs about the subject here (part I - III): Advertising link removed by moderator

That being said, I do not longer want to disturb your forum (or confirmation bias, to continue the analogy: Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )

 

[tftf]

PS: I don't get a cent from these Instablog entries . Anyway, you can find far better articles than mine easily, google for "Behavioral Finance".

To add just one last thing about the markets beyond TSLA: One day, the FED will stop fueling the stock markets. In addition to stock-specific risks (high concentrated returns in a volatile stock don't have the same quality as equal risk-adjusted and well diversified returns) everybody with no downside protection will be at risk when the FED stops printing money - not even TSLA can escape the FED.

 

[JRP3]

Yup, definitely tired of him

Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.

And exceptional minds discuss all of the above :biggrin:

 

[NigelM]

PS: I don't get a cent from these Instablog entries .

Fair enough, but just so you know that moderators here generally frown upon anyone advertising their own publications which were posted on a site that pays authors.

 

[tftf]

Fair enough, but just so you know that moderators here generally frown upon anyone advertising their own publications which were posted on a site that pays authors.

I understand (SA articles pay authors, Instablogs don't). Anyway, thank you for letting me make my points. I will give a last morsel why the bull run may soon be over in TSLA shares:

When Tesla issued convertible debt to help pay off its Department of Energy loan earlier this year, the convertible debt (sec.gov) becomes convertible at $184 a share

To mitigate the potential dilution impact from the issuance of convertible debt to our common shareholders, we also entered into a call spread to increase the effective conversion price from $125 to $184 per share. The call spread allows us to avoid incremental dilution from the convertible debt until our common share price climbs past $184. However, until the convertible notes mature in five years, the calculation of diluted earnings per share would be affected when the average stock price in the quarter is above $125. We will publish shortly a table at our investor relations website that illustrates the potential earnings per share dilution.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312513324129/d578387dex991.htm

I wonder how many retail investors are (still) aware about this conversion level and what it might mean for the stock going forward.

 

[tftf]

Finally, investors long TSLA should ask themselves: Was Musk stupid when he made the secondary offer at about $90 a few months ago? Afetr all, he left a lot of money on the table given today's stock price...or you can guess he and his investment bankers made some assumptions as well on the valuation of the company.

- - - Updated - - -

And (with that I will shut up) investors might want to re-read this section again given today's stock price at $185:

To mitigate the potential dilution impact from the issuance of convertible debt to our common shareholders, we also entered into a call spread to increase the effective conversion price from $125 to $184 per share. The call spread allows us to avoid incremental dilution from the convertible debt until our common share price climbs past $184. However, until the convertible notes mature in five years, the calculation of diluted earnings per share would be affected when the average stock price in the quarter is above $125. We will publish shortly a table at our investor relations website that illustrates the potential earnings per share dilution.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312513324129/d578387dex991.htm

 

[NigelM]

@tftf: no need to post the same things twice; it happens sometimes with new members who don't realize that posts remain in moderation until we're happy you aren't advertising, spamming or trolling. Posts will usually get reviewed by a moderator within a few hours and in the worst case are usually less than 24 hours. Thanks.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder how many retail investors are (still) aware about this conversion level and what it might mean for the stock going forward.

The awareness level here of all things Tesla and TSLA related is about as high as it gets without actually working for the company or being Elon Musk. We have a number of investment threads on this forum that go into far more detail about the convertible bond etc... situation and possibilities than the little blurb you've included. But thanks for thinking of us.

 

[tftf]

The awareness level here of all things Tesla and TSLA related is about as high as it gets without actually working for the company or being Elon Musk. We have a number of investment threads on this forum that go into far more detail about the convertible bond etc... situation and possibilities than the little blurb you've included. But thanks for thinking of us.

Ok, then maybe you are or another member of this forum can educate me on the secondary offer pricing question I had above. In more detail:

Why do it at $90 when TSLA is now trading at $180 (after all, the company insiders/high-paid advisors such as GS should be able to know/price the value of TSLA better) ?
Why not another offering now around $180 in order to have more options in the future, for example: Ability to build the Gen III car earlier, add (car or battery) factories sooner... ?