Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Why not? Remember, it is not just solely Elon who build the company. The company was build by all the people who work there. If your CEO treats the people who help you build the company it says something about you and how you view the company.

As for the fact that Tesla and SpaceX are the most desirable places for graduates to work for. I wonder how long it would last. A couple of years ago I would have loved to work for one of these companies. Seeing how the CEO has evolved, no thank you.

A good friend of mine knows a young man (coworker's grandson) who recently got a job at GigaTexas. He was barely there through orientation and maybe worked a week before being laid off in this latest cut.

He wasn't skilled, just a high school education, and assigned to doing basic labor.

He was given two months severance pay. Multiples of how much he had earned in his entire time with Tesla. I think he also received a sign-on bonus up front.

So, based upon your statement above, that says a lot about the CEO and Tesla as a company.

Some among "the people who helped build Tesla" who have left, did so with enough money to live several lifetimes. Many more were very well off and well compensated. Many of those on the production line in Fremont have became millionaires for their part in building the company.

Is this normal for employees leaving companies in the US? Perhaps even something to be ashamed of? I don't think so. In my lifetime of working and experiencing several staff reductions over those years, I was never provided severance pay.

I think that Tesla's Technoking and CEO treats people very well, even when he has to make hard decisions in order for the COMPANY to stay on the course that matches his goals for it.

Tesla as an employer, and Elon as a boss, both seem like they are grateful for the people they feel must go and are willing to be generous in helping them land more softly than they would have were they working for many, many other companies.

Edit: I seem to also remember something being posted here about someone who was laid off that posted on X over not getting the same severance as others, and Elon's reply assured that person that their and any others' severance would be fixed immediately.

 

[replicant]

I still dont understand why Berlin and Texas volume is so low.

Tesla is unable to communicate about the affordability of their products to the mass. So Tesla lay off workers, drop prices, offer low rates, and advertise to consumers who Teslas owner or supporters who don't need a car at the moment, waiting for something to change. The CEO also says they're now focusing more on services than manufacturing.

Meanwhile, legacy OEM get to sell expensive ICE with good margins, slow down EV production and are gifted tariffs to prevent cheap EV from entering the market.

 

[replicant]

A good friend of mine knows a young man (coworker's grandson) who recently got a job at GigaTexas. He was barely there through orientation and maybe worked a week before being laid off in this latest cut.

He wasn't skilled, just a high school education, and assigned to doing basic labor.

He was given two months severance pay. Multiples of how much he had earned in his entire time with Tesla. I think he also received a sign-on bonus up front.

So, based upon your statement above, that says a lot about the CEO and Tesla as a company.

Some among "the people who helped build Tesla" who have left, did so with enough money to live several lifetimes. Many more were very well off and well compensated. Many of those on the production line in Fremont have became millionaires for their part in building the company.

Is this normal for employees leaving companies in the US? Perhaps even something to be ashamed of? I don't think so. In my lifetime of working and experiencing several staff reductions over those years, I was never provided severance pay.

I think that Tesla's Technoking and CEO treats people very well, even when he has to make hard decisions in order for the COMPANY to stay on the course that matches his goals for it.

Tesla as an employer, and Elon as a boss, both seem like they are grateful for the people they feel must go and are willing to be generous in helping them land more softly than they would have were they working for many, many other companies.

Why don't they say this publicly? Any tweets from workers saying how good that deal is?

 

[Knightshade]

A higher % of float makes the stock more prone to a squeeze, but I'm not sure it's a more useful measure when it comes to the point I am making. My point is that high short interest often paradoxically coincides with a relative minimum of the SP. I hope I don't have to explain again why this is paradoxical.

Yes, short interest % was higher in '18-'19, as you pointed out.

Not just higher... nearly 10 times higher.

Point is saying SI is "high" today is deeply misleading... it's quite low by historical standards... It's higher than say a year ago-but not MUCH.

It went from about 3.4% a year ago to about 3.8% now. Total # of shares shorted has been less than -1- average day of trading volume just about the entire time.

That's not really a significant difference. Certainly not significant enough to build conspiracy theories around. Especially for a stock that used to have SI at 30% of float and now it's barely over 3%.

 

[Knightshade]

I would be fine with a dual class voting structure to achieve this, but am told it is impossible to achieve post-IPO in Delaware."

IIRC there was also an issue with S&P 500 not allowing dual stock class companies-- but looks like they reversed that last year-

https://www.barrons.com/articles/blackstone-airbnb-dell-boost-s-p-500-move-64b45b0d

He was given two months severance pay. Multiples of how much he had earned in his entire time with Tesla. I think he also received a sign-on bonus up front.

So, based upon your statement above, that says a lot about the CEO and Tesla as a company.

TBC the only thing that tells us is Tesla paid out the minimum severance legally required in a mass layoff by the WARN act.

We already did this whole discussion around the bird layoffs when Elon tweeted how generous they were giving severance and folks pointed out they were paying literally the minimum required by law at the time. Let's not rehash that.

 

[willow_hiller]

Not following - electrek is citing the same Yipit study you did. @winfield100 was questioning the interpretation of that table. I trust electrek even less. I would like an opinion from another statistician. IIRC there is one who is a forum member, but it’s up to him, if he deems it worthwhile to wade into this. As for me, I’d rather focus on understanding more things that will help grow the business..

There is only one additional detail in the Electrek article that we did not get from the tweet thread alone: Yipit is claiming the source of the data is from credit card payments. I think that probably lends less credence to the data than the social-media sourcing theory I had prior.

There would be no reasonable source of data from which Yipit could pull whether someone has received the FSD trial or not. As I said before, they might have been scraping it from social media, but if that were the case there is no way they could join it to the credit card data. So that means that Yipit must be modeling the "Cumulative Trials" data from some sort of inferred growth rate. In the chart we've seen from the source, notice how the cumulative rate increases smoothly along one curve from 3/30 to 4/10, and then increases smoothly again along a logarithmic curve all the way to the end of the data.

I think this means it's likely the denominator of this data is largely fictitious. They had a pool of credit card data from 3,500 people who had ever made a payment to Tesla (either Supercharging or Premium connectivity), and they measured that 70 of those credit card holders also then made a payment for FSD subscription. They've assumed that 100% of people attached to those 3,500 credit cards got the free trial at the end of 40 days, but we know that's not the case. There's a huge thread on Reddit from 4 days ago (a full 5 days after Yipit's data stops) where people are celebrating getting the trial just then. It's going to be another 30 days until we know whether they decide to subscribe:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1coa1zo/people_on_202489_finally_getting_the_fsd_v12_trial

Yipit seems to have rushed this data out. Who reports on the results of a 30 day free trial that goes out to users on a rolling basis at the end of 40 days?

 

[EQC_]

Why don't they say this publicly? Any tweets from workers saying how good that deal is?

- (Edit: Ninja'd by Knightshade on this point) Vague memory and some quick googling: The WARN Act requires 60 days notice for certain layoffs. Many companies seem to handle this in a way that looks more like immediate dismissal followed by 60 days of pay. So, Tesla may of course have some kindness and understanding...but the 60 days is probably required by law.

- In terms of public statements: we should all know by now that warm-fuzzies don't sell or generate clicks. The media and "the algorithm" wants to fill our feeds and our heads with rage bait, because that generates more interaction and ad revenue than any feel-good story. So, even if many of the laid-off employees were tweeting out their decent severance packages, those tweets won't get attention. Instead, we'll all be fed a spattering of the worst possible horror stories that anybody can find. The layoff story that will get attention and go viral will be about a disabled single mother who just adopted 18 orphans and the whole family was sleeping in a rental car in the Tesla parking lot so she could put in more hours to support Tesla...

 

[sunwarriors]

Why don't they say this publicly? Any tweets from workers saying how good that deal is?

I think these stories can go both ways. There are folks who've posted online that they paid to move to join Tesla, also H1-Bs out of country travel articles, also folks who had permanent offers rescinded who were going to start before the freeze/cancels and have spent thousands moving who are complaining in reports. Same goes for interns who possibly/probably gave up other internship positions and it's too late now for summer internships for companies that offer them to have these guys started now.

For a young, no higher education grandson with limited skills, of course getting 2 months severance for 2 weeks of work is great, but that's short sighted vs. say, a more senior, very talented, knowledgeable family man with a mortgage, kids now having to find a more senior level job vs. basic hard labor in the Tesla factory. If they were given the same 2 months after 7 years of service, that doesn't look great right?

Articles/videos aren't hard to find currently, but I'm sure it's great for some, bad for others.

EQC_'s point about the 60 day WARN act is probably all they are doing since that's required by law. It's not anything more than the minimal as he mentioned.

 

[jerry33]

Google releases new TPU almost 5x faster than it’s predecessor:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790436855395078537

A long history of computer chips tells me that marketing numbers do not match real life performance. Even benchmarks are not that accurate except for the test data used.

 

[NicoV]

A long history of computer chips tells me that marketing numbers do not match real life performance. Even benchmarks are not that accurate except for the test data used.

I just wanted to give an example about NVidia’s competition, that some of the companies with the largest AI needs build, and keep improving (whether it is 2x or 5x is not that important), their own AI chips.
Because it’s cheaper than buying NVidia solutions. At some point in time, NVidia’s pricing power will diminish.

 

[advocate8]

There is only one additional detail in the Electrek article that we did not get from the tweet thread alone: Yipit is claiming the source of the data is from credit card payments. I think that probably lends less credence to the data than the social-media sourcing theory I had prior.

There would be no reasonable source of data from which Yipit could pull whether someone has received the FSD trial or not. As I said before, they might have been scraping it from social media, but if that were the case there is no way they could join it to the credit card data. So that means that Yipit must be modeling the "Cumulative Trials" data from some sort of inferred growth rate. In the chart we've seen from the source, notice how the cumulative rate increases smoothly along one curve from 3/30 to 4/10, and then increases smoothly again along a logarithmic curve all the way to the end of the data.

I think this means it's likely the denominator of this data is largely fictitious. They had a pool of credit card data from 3,500 people who had ever made a payment to Tesla (either Supercharging or Premium connectivity), and they measured that 70 of those credit card holders also then made a payment for FSD subscription. They've assumed that 100% of people attached to those 3,500 credit cards got the free trial at the end of 40 days, but we know that's not the case. There's a huge thread on Reddit from 4 days ago (a full 5 days after Yipit's data stops) where people are celebrating getting the trial just then. It's going to be another 30 days until we know whether they decide to subscribe:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1coa1zo/people_on_202489_finally_getting_the_fsd_v12_trial

Yipit seems to have rushed this data out. Who reports on the results of a 30 day free trial that goes out to users on a rolling basis at the end of 40 days?

Yes, and there are just too many things that could go wrong with using data like this, any one of which could throw the results 30 percent or... 300.
Honestly, even if WERE just 2 percent I'd call that a win, as it's essentially free revenue. I do suspect the number is or will higher, but likley the only acceptably-accurate source for the data in question going to be Tesla.

 

[growler23]

Google releases new TPU almost 5x faster than it’s predecessor:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790436855395078537

Cool - that is yet another interesting entrant in the race.
I think the big question for all of these isn't "how fast", but "how fast per Watt"? Compute per Watt and Cost per Watt would be, I think, the crucial metrics going forward for datacenter builds.

 

[Musskiah]

Not just higher... nearly 10 times higher.

Point is saying SI is "high" today is deeply misleading... it's quite low by historical standards... It's higher than say a year ago-but not MUCH.

It went from about 3.4% a year ago to about 3.8% now. Total # of shares shorted has been less than -1- average day of trading volume just about the entire time.

That's not really a significant difference. Certainly not significant enough to build conspiracy theories around. Especially for a stock that used to have SI at 30% of float and now it's barely over 3%.

It's actually not misleading. As I said, you are missing my point. You keep trying to compare TSLA when it was worth 10x less market cap to TSLA today. Of course we aren't going to ever get near 30% short interest again. I meant "record short interest" over the past ~3 years, in this stage of the cycle (I could have clarified that in my original post - apologies). Interestingly nearly the same amount of short $$ was at stake in the last heavily shorted cycles when SP was 10x less and SI% was 10x more. If the same 30%+ SI was in play today, short sellers would be on the hook for $100B+. Interestingly, from 2019 onward, anytime SI gets over $30B+, some short shares are taken off the table. Nonetheless, this is not the point...

Here is the point:

TESLA IS MOST HEAVILY SHORTED WHEN IT IS AT A RELATIVE LOW SHARE PRICE. This is paradoxical (I assume I don't have to explain why....again)

This is suspiciously atypical for a profitable company. Another way to show this correlation is through FINRA short volume ratio. The stock is obviously being suppressed by insanely high short volume over 60% as @Papafox continuously points out.

 

[FreqFlyer]

News from China, a poster earlier in the day referenced parts from Model Y refresh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790424343996170737

 

[Musskiah]

I still dont understand why Berlin and Texas volume is so low.

That's cumulative volume. So Berlin and Texas are now where Fremont was all the way to the left of the graph.

 

[Knightshade]

It's actually not misleading. As I said, you are missing my point. You keep trying to compare TSLA when it was worth 10x less market cap to TSLA today.

Why do you think that matters?

% of float is what impacts how hard/expensive it is to borrow to short, and how hard it is for a short to cover if the stock reverses against him,

If it's $10 a share or $100 a share doesn't change that.

Of course we aren't going to ever get near 30% short interest again. I meant "record short interest" over the past ~3 years

Yes- but again 'record' in quotes because you're talking the difference between 3.2% of the float and 3.8% of the float.

You have yet to articulate any actual mechanic of the stock market where that would make any significant difference to...anything.

TESLA IS MOST HEAVILY SHORTED WHEN IT IS AT A RELATIVE LOW SHARE PRICE. This is paradoxical (I assume I don't have to explain why....again)

You kind of DO need to explain though-- because again the difference between high and low short interest in recent years is very small

So it's not surprising that as SP starts to decline a small # of additional shorts might pile on the train. Increasing short interest a small <1% of float.

And then when SP starts to go back up, those not-perennial shorts will cover, and thus SI goes back down. The "lifers" stick around either way.

hence why the "high" and the "low" in the last year aren't really that far apart even if right now it's technically at a "high'

 

[ggr]

Mod:
I just deleted 12 posts and temp banned one member.
Some of the posts, and the ban, were for ignoring clear moderator instructions to cease a particular acrimonious discussion. (Explicitly not for allegedly trolling.)
Other posts were members just being snarky at each other. I probably should have deleted more. Hint: if your post is less than 8 words, you probably shouldn't post it. Ditto if you gratuitously insult another member.

I'm about to get on planes for most of 24 hours. If I come back here and this forum is full of snark, get yourselves a new moderator.
--ggr

 

[BioSehnsucht]

News from China, a poster earlier in the day referenced parts from Model Y refresh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790424343996170737

Yikes, the stitching looks rough in the area where the lid and base meet. I hope this is a rejected test sample and not indicative of parts going into production.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790491435222925404

about China Mega pack

 

[Musskiah]

@Knightshade
I won't be long-winded in my response. I'll keep it simple:

Shorting a stock heavily near all time lows is paradoxical because generally it makes more sense to short a stock as it is near its highs, not it's lows.

"Piling on," as you said, is exactly right. Piling on the keep the stock down.

The difference now between 3.2% and 3.8% is several B$ (the exact amt dependent on SP). Small movements in SI% now require much larger 10x the capital from the prior period you are pointing to. It's essentially 10x more costly to take the same % short position.

The "high" and "low" in the last year is actually quite significant. Shares shorted are up over 60% from their lows. Check the historical numbers.