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Indeed, Bonnie (who may have been a moderator) was an insightful poster back in the day. Although she did take me to task on my first day here eleven years ago. That was her request for a first day poster not to contradict a more seasoned member. In that case it was someone who had suggested selling TSLA upon reaching $40 ($2.67 split adjusted).

Later we got along fine when Bonnie contacted me for help in getting states to allow direct sales of cars. That has had some success, but more is needed. She still seems to be spot-on in her Twitter/X posts.
 
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All true, but....

Elon stated the Reuters article was lying.

Sure, but which part of the article was a lie? It does now seem like at least some of it was rooted in truth, Reuters only had half the story though.

Elon said he was focusing heavily on robotaxi but not betting the company.

True, but continuing with the current S3XY, CT, and Semi while putting all new R&D into autonomy would be investing into a potential huge growth opportunity while still keeping the current solid auto business. Using Tesla auto to sustain the company while it goes hard on Robotaxi. So both can be true.

No one at Tesla has said the next generation consumer model is canceled

No, Tesla has stated a more affordable consumer EV is coming later this year and it will be built on the current 3&Y production lines. This affordable EV is almost certainly NOT the unboxed design, as that car's production process is (probably) not compatible with the 3&Y lines. So the consumer unboxed EV could very well be cancelled and replaced with low end variants of the 3&Y to be built on the current lines. Elon has stated the unboxed line in Austin will be dedicated to RT's.

The consumer model sounds like its changed design, not been cancelled.

Elon has stated supercharger location expansion will continue.

Yes, but at a slower pace. This suggests EV production will also continue at a slower pace, which Tesla has actually directly guided for 2024. Maybe this slower pace of EV growth will continue?

Those are the facts. Much speculation happening here from people that have allowed FUD to convince them of things Tesla has not said.

True they are the facts, but we are still missing a ton of information as well, so those facts still leave a lot of info gaps to be filled.
 
Elon stated the Reuters article was lying.

Franz told people not to believe everything you read.

Elon said he was focusing heavily on robotaxi but not betting the company.

No one at Tesla has said the next generation consumer model is canceled

Elon has stated supercharger location expansion will continue.


Those are the facts. Much speculation happening here from people that have allowed FUD to convince them of things Tesla has not said.

Tesla also said the Semi would go into production in 2017 and they were planning for 50k in 2024.

Should I mention the 1,000/week Solar Roofs by the end of 2019?

"Tesla said" does not mean it's a fact.
 
Tony Seba's model has TAAS cost at 14 cents a mile. But he ignores ...... well, a lot.

In theory TAAS has four main cost advantages over private car ownership:
  1. Amortize $30k vehicle cost over 500-1000k miles instead of 150k
  2. Electricity instead of gasoline (for society at large, not this audience)
  3. Lower insurance cost due to near-perfect driving
  4. Vastly reduced parking cost
Insurance savings are dubious -- fewer at-fault crashes but much higher deep-pocket liability awards for each crash may end up costing the same overall, or even more. Parking only applies to dense urban, and urban is only a small fraction of Seba's 95% of miles traveled claim.

The most ignored cost is deadheading. Again dense urban scores better with perhaps 25-30% deadhead vs. ~50% outside the city center. And some TAAS fans quote (but never cite) "studies" that say half of all traffic in city XYZ is people driving around looking for a parking spot. If true that would actually exceed the deadhead fraction.

Seba and crew also ignore remote monitoring, customer support, cleaning, etc. Waymo has not found a business model that covers these costs, otherwise they'd scale like crazy. Of course it's possible the business model is right there and Waymo is simply too incompetent to see it. In fact some (ahem) might even call it likely.


Uber has high driver cost. That's a clear advantage for TAAS.
Thanks, but as we have seen with solar and solar + batteries, if you want capitalism on your side it better be like four years and then your energy is free. If its merely a bit less than a utility everyone backs off.

If somebody is spending, say, $500 a month for a car, and they driver 1,500 miles a month, its already only costing them 33 cents a mile. A robo taxi better only charge like 17 cents a mile, otherwise the number of takers is going to be limited. That's why Seba may be at 14 cents, it would need to be to convince people to ditch a car for the service.

If you have to drive it a million miles to get there. Wow.
 
I was outside mowing the grass this morning (on my EGO electric zero turn!) thinking about all the odd Tesla news we've seen the past few weeks, when a thought occurred to me which would be very relevant to TSLA investing IF its accurate:

What if Tesla is pivoting away hard from consumer EV development?

The plan stated by Tesla (regarding EV's) has been to grow Tesla auto production at around 50% CAGR hitting about 20,000,000 EV production in 2030. This includes vehicle and supporting functions like superchargers, insurance, etc.

But lately we've seen a lot of statements by Elon coupled with changes by Tesla which don't seem to support this plan:

- Pausing Giga Mexico and not announcing any other new Giga's, essentially pausing car production growth.
- Sidelining the $25K Tesla (and possibly redesigning it into low end 3 & Y) to instead focus on the robotaxi.
- Redistributing nearly all R&D spending away from auto growth and towards AI & autonomy.
- Laying off 10% of the company currently focused on auto production.
- Firing product development and public relations teams.
- Firing the supercharger team, a consumer EV support product (robotaxis might use a different charging infrastructure, possibly inductive).

Elon seems to be in what the Isaacson biography termed "demon mode", where Elon makes huge changes and shifts plans seemingly without regard for public optics or anyone else's opinions. Its very clear that Elon is changing Tesla's direction as of late. The plan to ramp consumer EV production to 20 million by 2030 does not seem to be on the table anymore, because at this point 20 million by 2030 is nigh impossible.

Note this probably doesn't mean Tesla will stop making consumer EV's, but what's available today might be it. Meaning the Model S, X, 3, Y, CT, and Semi, followed by some cheaper low end variants of the 3 & Y later this year by the sound of it. I think these could possibly be the only consumer EV's Tesla is planning now, and production of all combined might never exceed a couple million cars per year out of the current existing factories. So something like 3-4 million consumer EV's per year out of Fremont, Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai. New factories might be only for robotaxi / Megapack / Optimus production.

At this much slower EV production rate with minimal growth, a slower supercharging deployment schedule could be more prudent. Especially with OEM's also slowing their own EV production too. Like Elon said today, Tesla will continue to build and deploy new SC's, just at a slower pace. It doesn't sound like he's concerned about supporting 20,000,000 EV's per year by 2030 anymore.

So, why would Elon do this?

Well, in my own Tesla Excel model, I predict the company financials going all the way out to 2035. Now of course my model is wrong, nobody's model going out that far is accurate. But I do believe my model shows the trends of Tesla's businesses fairly well, and a few things stick out to me:

4) Even at 20 million EV's per year, Tesla's EV business will eventually be the smallest segment they have.
3) Tesla Energy will very likely make more money than Tesla EV's in time.
2) Tesla Robotaxis have enormous revenue potential, like several times more than EV sales, and I model it very conservatively!
1) Tesla Optimus will likely one day make more revenue than everything else Tesla does combined, and that includes RT's.

Now I believe most Tesla investors who really study the company thoroughly would agree with the rankings of Tesla's future businesses a decade from now. Sure the valuations of the sectors are subjective, but the order of their relative sizes is probably spot on.

Given that, and knowing that Elon sees this too, Maybe Elon is simply ending R&D of the smallest sector (consumer EVs) as it mostly is today? Maybe Elon has decided to move the company forward onto bigger things now instead of spending lots of time and money on a sector which relatively won't matter much ten years from now? Many people believe (I know Elon does) full fledged Robotaxis will eventually dwindle car ownership down over time anyway, is it possible Elon just doesn't want to spend any more time or money on a dwindling business? If auto ownership does decrease over time then anyone in the business of making consumer autos will be in for a world of hurt. Much like blacksmiths, or typewriter manufacturers, or film developers, or flip phone companies...


These are just Deep Thoughts I had on a very quiet tractor, none of us knows for certain, less of all myself of course. If accurate though it would explain Elon's statements and behavior as of late. And honestly it might be a great decision in the long run if this is what he's thinking.

Of course it hinges on FSD getting solved and Robotaxi services becoming a very big thing, which they aren't yet. But then Tesla could easily survive on the current EV business scaled up to around 4 million EV's per year too, so even if the bet failed Tesla would likely survive it just fine.

Anyway I thought it was an interesting theory. 😎
I tend to think of it in a simple way. 1 robotaxi = 5 personal cars from a mileage perspective. If you can build 1 Robotaxi that can drive the equivalent of 5 personal cars it's one of the quickest ways to accelerate the transition. We don't need 80-100 million cars produced per year and all the carbon emissions associated with this as well.
 
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Elon did not have any intiment relationship with the entirely of twitters staff and business before firing 80% of the staff. It's actually very impressive how he can pinpoint the essential employees in a matter of days.

This is why those SC hysteria is funny to me. Elon have been working with the Tesla staff for decades, so letting go 500 people and somehow the sky is falling seems like even a dumber take.
you forgot to add the "/" to your post.
 
Sharing is the only way to get to sustainability but then you are sharing a vehicle with a stranger. Not great and post covid...not really welcome I think.
Meh. Plenty of people get in taxis now, and planes with multiple people without hesitation. They go work at businesses with a lot of people and customers coming in and out.

Cars are a convenience. AV has potential to offer the core point-to-point convenience at low cost, competing against the convenience of ownership with the avoiding the risk and inconvenience of ownership, while also offering the ability to switch off and ride instead of drive.
 
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I was outside mowing the grass this morning (on my EGO electric zero turn!) thinking about all the odd Tesla news we've seen the past few weeks, when a thought occurred to me which would be very relevant to TSLA investing IF its accurate:

What if Tesla is pivoting away hard from consumer EV development?

The plan stated by Tesla (regarding EV's) has been to grow Tesla auto production at around 50% CAGR hitting about 20,000,000 EV production in 2030. This includes vehicle and supporting functions like superchargers, insurance, etc.

But lately we've seen a lot of statements by Elon coupled with changes by Tesla which don't seem to support this plan:

- Pausing Giga Mexico and not announcing any other new Giga's, essentially pausing car production growth.
- Sidelining the $25K Tesla (and possibly redesigning it into low end 3 & Y) to instead focus on the robotaxi.
- Redistributing nearly all R&D spending away from auto growth and towards AI & autonomy.
- Laying off 10% of the company currently focused on auto production.
- Firing product development and public relations teams.
- Firing the supercharger team, a consumer EV support product (robotaxis might use a different charging infrastructure, possibly inductive).

Elon seems to be in what the Isaacson biography termed "demon mode", where Elon makes huge changes and shifts plans seemingly without regard for public optics or anyone else's opinions. Its very clear that Elon is changing Tesla's direction as of late. The plan to ramp consumer EV production to 20 million by 2030 does not seem to be on the table anymore, because at this point 20 million by 2030 is nigh impossible.

Note this probably doesn't mean Tesla will stop making consumer EV's, but what's available today might be it. Meaning the Model S, X, 3, Y, CT, and Semi, followed by some cheaper low end variants of the 3 & Y later this year by the sound of it. I think these could possibly be the only consumer EV's Tesla is planning now, and production of all combined might never exceed a couple million cars per year out of the current existing factories. So something like 3-4 million consumer EV's per year out of Fremont, Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai. New factories might be only for robotaxi / Megapack / Optimus production.

At this much slower EV production rate with minimal growth, a slower supercharging deployment schedule could be more prudent. Especially with OEM's also slowing their own EV production too. Like Elon said today, Tesla will continue to build and deploy new SC's, just at a slower pace. It doesn't sound like he's concerned about supporting 20,000,000 EV's per year by 2030 anymore.

So, why would Elon do this?

Well, in my own Tesla Excel model, I predict the company financials going all the way out to 2035. Now of course my model is wrong, nobody's model going out that far is accurate. But I do believe my model shows the trends of Tesla's businesses fairly well, and a few things stick out to me:

4) Even at 20 million EV's per year, Tesla's EV business will eventually be the smallest segment they have.
3) Tesla Energy will very likely make more money than Tesla EV's in time.
2) Tesla Robotaxis have enormous revenue potential, like several times more than EV sales, and I model it very conservatively!
1) Tesla Optimus will likely one day make more revenue than everything else Tesla does combined, and that includes RT's.

Now I believe most Tesla investors who really study the company thoroughly would agree with the rankings of Tesla's future businesses a decade from now. Sure the valuations of the sectors are subjective, but the order of their relative sizes is probably spot on.

Given that, and knowing that Elon sees this too, Maybe Elon is simply ending R&D of the smallest sector (consumer EVs) as it mostly is today? Maybe Elon has decided to move the company forward onto bigger things now instead of spending lots of time and money on a sector which relatively won't matter much ten years from now? Many people believe (I know Elon does) full fledged Robotaxis will eventually dwindle car ownership down over time anyway, is it possible Elon just doesn't want to spend any more time or money on a dwindling business? If auto ownership does decrease over time then anyone in the business of making consumer autos will be in for a world of hurt. Much like blacksmiths, or typewriter manufacturers, or film developers, or flip phone companies...


These are just Deep Thoughts I had on a very quiet tractor, none of us knows for certain, less of all myself of course. If accurate though it would explain Elon's statements and behavior as of late. And honestly it might be a great decision in the long run if this is what he's thinking.

Of course it hinges on FSD getting solved and Robotaxi services becoming a very big thing, which they aren't yet. But then Tesla could easily survive on the current EV business scaled up to around 4 million EV's per year too, so even if the bet failed Tesla would likely survive it just fine.

Anyway I thought it was an interesting theory. 😎
2.1 FSD
Autonomous driving is much more than just moving butts. Tesla/Elon is fully aware the significance of moving ginormous amount of non-living atoms 24-7. FSD could be OS of moving everything on earth (other than moving things to orbits).

How autonomous moving of everything on earth surface will change everything else is an uncharted territory. Just look how affordable human-driven cars and HVAC have changed the urban/suburban landscape and are still changing the demographic dynamics as of today.
 
I was outside mowing the grass this morning (on my EGO electric zero turn!) thinking about all the odd Tesla news we've seen the past few weeks, when a thought occurred to me which would be very relevant to TSLA investing IF its accurate:

What if Tesla is pivoting away hard from consumer EV development?

The plan stated by Tesla (regarding EV's) has been to grow Tesla auto production at around 50% CAGR hitting about 20,000,000 EV production in 2030. This includes vehicle and supporting functions like superchargers, insurance, etc.

But lately we've seen a lot of statements by Elon coupled with changes by Tesla which don't seem to support this plan:

- Pausing Giga Mexico and not announcing any other new Giga's, essentially pausing car production growth.
- Sidelining the $25K Tesla (and possibly redesigning it into low end 3 & Y) to instead focus on the robotaxi.
- Redistributing nearly all R&D spending away from auto growth and towards AI & autonomy.
- Laying off 10% of the company currently focused on auto production.
- Firing product development and public relations teams.
- Firing the supercharger team, a consumer EV support product (robotaxis might use a different charging infrastructure, possibly inductive).

Elon seems to be in what the Isaacson biography termed "demon mode", where Elon makes huge changes and shifts plans seemingly without regard for public optics or anyone else's opinions. Its very clear that Elon is changing Tesla's direction as of late. The plan to ramp consumer EV production to 20 million by 2030 does not seem to be on the table anymore, because at this point 20 million by 2030 is nigh impossible.

Note this probably doesn't mean Tesla will stop making consumer EV's, but what's available today might be it. Meaning the Model S, X, 3, Y, CT, and Semi, followed by some cheaper low end variants of the 3 & Y later this year by the sound of it. I think these could possibly be the only consumer EV's Tesla is planning now, and production of all combined might never exceed a couple million cars per year out of the current existing factories. So something like 3-4 million consumer EV's per year out of Fremont, Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai. New factories might be only for robotaxi / Megapack / Optimus production.

At this much slower EV production rate with minimal growth, a slower supercharging deployment schedule could be more prudent. Especially with OEM's also slowing their own EV production too. Like Elon said today, Tesla will continue to build and deploy new SC's, just at a slower pace. It doesn't sound like he's concerned about supporting 20,000,000 EV's per year by 2030 anymore.

So, why would Elon do this?

Well, in my own Tesla Excel model, I predict the company financials going all the way out to 2035. Now of course my model is wrong, nobody's model going out that far is accurate. But I do believe my model shows the trends of Tesla's businesses fairly well, and a few things stick out to me:

4) Even at 20 million EV's per year, Tesla's EV business will eventually be the smallest segment they have.
3) Tesla Energy will very likely make more money than Tesla EV's in time.
2) Tesla Robotaxis have enormous revenue potential, like several times more than EV sales, and I model it very conservatively!
1) Tesla Optimus will likely one day make more revenue than everything else Tesla does combined, and that includes RT's.

Now I believe most Tesla investors who really study the company thoroughly would agree with the rankings of Tesla's future businesses a decade from now. Sure the valuations of the sectors are subjective, but the order of their relative sizes is probably spot on.

Given that, and knowing that Elon sees this too, Maybe Elon is simply ending R&D of the smallest sector (consumer EVs) as it mostly is today? Maybe Elon has decided to move the company forward onto bigger things now instead of spending lots of time and money on a sector which relatively won't matter much ten years from now? Many people believe (I know Elon does) full fledged Robotaxis will eventually dwindle car ownership down over time anyway, is it possible Elon just doesn't want to spend any more time or money on a dwindling business? If auto ownership does decrease over time then anyone in the business of making consumer autos will be in for a world of hurt. Much like blacksmiths, or typewriter manufacturers, or film developers, or flip phone companies...


These are just Deep Thoughts I had on a very quiet tractor, none of us knows for certain, less of all myself of course. If accurate though it would explain Elon's statements and behavior as of late. And honestly it might be a great decision in the long run if this is what he's thinking.

Of course it hinges on FSD getting solved and Robotaxi services becoming a very big thing, which they aren't yet. But then Tesla could easily survive on the current EV business scaled up to around 4 million EV's per year too, so even if the bet failed Tesla would likely survive it just fine.

Anyway I thought it was an interesting theory. 😎

Nice post. I'm struggling to see how all the data coming in doesn't indicate to most people in this forum that the growth of selling consumer EVs has been and will continue to be slower than it was a few years ago. And slower than the old 50% YoY (on average) growth target.

It's all there. Flat deliveries now YoY. Not just Q1, but evidence already showing Q2 will be flat if not negative YoY.

Slower growth in supercharger deployment.

Delayed development of Mexico factory. Giga Berlin never ramping to 5000 / week.

Semi delayed further.

The CEO now saying they are targeting 3 million production capacity on current lines... but not 3 million in 2025, but eventually. So no, growth is not 50% anymore. Maybe 20-30% automotive unit growth?

And this matches all the layoffs to cut costs.

I don't know how this is at controversial.

But yes, acceptance of the new normal means the automotive segment valuation must be reassessed. It shouldn't be surprising that if you are now targeting lower growth and lower margins, that's a double whammy to valuation.

Tesla earned ~$0.4 in GAAP EPS last quarter. This year might end up under $2 of GAAP earnings. A share price of say $200 would give a TTM PE ratio of 100. If not valued on anything else, that is just insane. It would be hard to find another large company with similar ratios. Usually such high ratios happen when someone gets hit with a 1 time massive quarterly loss like a lawsuit payment or discarding a sunk asset - the market sees the next 4 quarters aren't affected.

I badly want to buy TSLA - but my system wants to reduced the chances of massive shorter term drawdowns. The actual hard numbers and evidence of slowing down automotive means there is real risk the share price could correct to $100. The PE ratio could still be 50 at end of the year! I'm not short nor is this FUD. I have previous posts that modeled higher EPS this year and higher share price than $200 - but the data is changing.

Megapack buildout is also slower than expected. So for 2025, analysts EPS has now gone down to $3.1. We'll see how that changes over time. At $150, that's a forward PE ratio of 50. On the higher end. At $200, it's like 66. Quite high forward PE reserved for rapid growth.

The point is - Tesla is now hitting a point that it's automotive / energy businesss profit growths aren't necessarily supporting the share price. The share price now is partially supported by expected profits coming from FSD robotaxis.

The perception around FSD progress will now dominate share price. Valuation expectations may swing wildly.


Fsd, rideshare, and robotaxi are right around the corner and there will be significant demand for every vehicle Tesla can produce.

This is a dangerous assumption. We don't know if it is "right around the corner". There has been solid progress, but the barrier needed to overcome is essentially better than a human, or 100x better than V12 currently is. I urge people to use caution in their assumptions.
 
Meh. Plenty of people get in taxis now, and planes with multiple people without hesitation. They go work at businesses with a lot of people and customers coming in and out.

Cars are a convenience. AV has potential to offer the core point-to-point convenience at low cost, competing against the convenience of ownership with the avoiding the risk and inconvenience of ownership, while also offering the ability to switch off and ride instead of drive.
FSD has a long way to go to match up how people use cars day to day.

Say you decide to run out to get shopping done. People expect to be driving along and say hey lets grab a drink at Starbucks on way to Costco. Done with Costco, well they didnt have X, lets stop at traditional grocery store on way home. Hey while were out lets grab lunch. Oh need some soil for gardening at Home Depot.

When will Robotaxi service be ready for that. Right now assuming enough cars deployed.

You 1st get a robotaxi to Starbucks. Get out get your drink.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Costco. Get out and shop.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Trader Joes. It comes load up stuff from Costco.
Go to Trader Joes. Unload stuff from Costco. Where do I put it? Shop at Trader Joes.
Call for another robotaxi. Load stuff from Costco and Trader Joes.
Go to lunch joint. What do do with stuff.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Home Deport. What to do with stuff?
Call for another robotaxi to go home after loading all stuff.

This is a pretty typical run weekend errands for lots of people.
 
FSD has a long way to go to match up how people use cars day to day.

Say you decide to run out to get shopping done. People expect to be driving along and say hey lets grab a drink at Starbucks on way to Costco. Done with Costco, well they didnt have X, lets stop at traditional grocery store on way home. Hey while were out lets grab lunch. Oh need some soil for gardening at Home Depot.

When will Robotaxi service be ready for that. Right now assuming enough cars deployed.

You 1st get a robotaxi to Starbucks. Get out get your drink.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Costco. Get out and shop.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Trader Joes. It comes load up stuff from Costco.
Go to Trader Joes. Unload stuff from Costco. Where do I put it? Shop at Trader Joes.
Call for another robotaxi. Load stuff from Costco and Trader Joes.
Go to lunch joint. What do do with stuff.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Home Deport. What to do with stuff?
Call for another robotaxi to go home after loading all stuff.

This is a pretty typical run weekend errands for lots of people.
Did you actually spend time fabricating this nonsense?
 
FSD has a long way to go to match up how people use cars day to day.

Say you decide to run out to get shopping done. People expect to be driving along and say hey lets grab a drink at Starbucks on way to Costco. Done with Costco, well they didnt have X, lets stop at traditional grocery store on way home. Hey while were out lets grab lunch. Oh need some soil for gardening at Home Depot.

When will Robotaxi service be ready for that. Right now assuming enough cars deployed.

You 1st get a robotaxi to Starbucks. Get out get your drink.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Costco. Get out and shop.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Trader Joes. It comes load up stuff from Costco.
Go to Trader Joes. Unload stuff from Costco. Where do I put it? Shop at Trader Joes.
Call for another robotaxi. Load stuff from Costco and Trader Joes.
Go to lunch joint. What do do with stuff.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Home Deport. What to do with stuff?
Call for another robotaxi to go home after loading all stuff.

This is a pretty typical run weekend errands for lots of people.

I think you'll simply be able to reserve an RT for a period of time or even by the day, so your RT would park at those places and wait for you.
 
Some interesting info here, even if out of context. The timeline in particular.

 
I think you'll simply be able to reserve an RT for a period of time or even by the day, so your RT would park at those places and wait for you.
The problem is that most don't see this as viable and until it's proven that it can be (by people seeing many do this regularly) there won't be a mass shift.

Now I'm not, nor have I ever said this can't/won't be the future, but 10-20 years down the road, maybe.

Mass rideshare has reduced car owner ship in the biggest cities from what people have posted here. People in places like NYC ownership has increased.
 
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For starlink spacex have one set of regulators they have to satisfy.
Spacex staff directly make, test and deploy the satellites.

For super chargers Tesla has:
50 states each with different laws, regulations and processes to carry out building work.
Different contractors.
Different landowners.
Different power companies.

So the starlink analogy doesn’t work.

It is irresponsible to get rid of the entire team responsible for planning.
New staff are going to have learn what they already know.
Careful, polluting the Layoff and FSD tread with Starlink trivia might anger the mods.