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The phrase "please enlighten us" is often used to indicate sarcasm. Are you seriously curious about what I see as the recurring misunderstandings of Wall Street on this forum? Alternatively, if you are just looking for an internet fight, I am not interested.
No, I’m serious. I apologize if my post came across sarcastic. There definitely seem to be some misguided statements about the markets/Wall Street here, so it would be really good to have a different take on things. I would appreciate your input.
 
No, I’m serious. I apologize if my post came across sarcastic. There definitely seem to be some misguided statements about the markets/Wall Street here, so it would be really good to have a different take on things. I would appreciate your input.
No need for an apology, I answered another post with what I see as recurring (and slightly tiresome) misunderstandings about how the markets work.
 
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The regular misunderstandings I see:

1. Describing "Wall Street" as if it had a united view or agenda. Wall Street is an umbrella term to describe the financial markets and the companies that trade publicly on exchanges throughout the U.S. It can also be used to describe people who work or are active in those markets/companies. Ascribing a certain view or intention on all participants in that group is false. It would be like saying that TMC's investor forum has one view, when in reality it covers a wide spectrum of views and agendas.
2. Exaggerating the importance / influence of short sellers while simultaneously disregarding all market actors taking long bets. Yes, as follows from the links you included, there are hedge funds and short sellers and some of them try to - sometimes successfully, sometimes not - influence other to sell stock by making their views or research public. Firms like Viceroy or managers like Burry and Chanos come to mind. On the flip side, there are a lot of managers and others taking long bets who make their research or views very public to try to increase a share price. What should be remembered is this - the markets are short term irrational but long term rational.
3. Using conspiracy theory logic to form opinions on how "Wall Street" works. By this I mean extrapolating any proven instances of market manipulation to form the conclusion that the whole market is rigged. It's like finding an inconsistency in some detail about 9/11 or the Apollo Expedition and from that derive that 9/11 was a government inside job or that the moon landing was fake. Yes, there are attempted and successful manipulations happening on the markets, in both directions, and it is often illegal. The game stop short squeeze was an entertaining manipulation of the markets (at least for us on the outside). But this doesn't mean that every time the stock I own goes down it must be due to some sinister agenda.

A lot more could be written but it in summary it seems to me as part of what is wrong with social media in general - everything is put in black and white, something is 100% good or 100% bad and there is little room for nuances or source criticism.
A very rational, sensible and well stated view. Thank you.
 
No downside risk, Max flex.


Why the Market gets the Robotaxi - Compact Car story Totally Wrong

While most people think Tesla has chosen between Robotaxi and Compact Car, the reality is that Tesla is making one model that is technically so similar it is technically both. Adding controls is a quick fix you can do anytime without a huge time effort.

Tesla will have one production line for both cars with the unboxed process and from the outside, you won't see any difference at all. In fact, the test production line already exists. There is no delay of the compact car at all, it is coming.

Elon uses a smart risk-avoiding strategy because if FSD takes for whatever reason longer, Tesla can sell the car as a compact car, and if FSD goes as predicted fast, it's a no-brainer to use it as such because of the expected 5 times higher margin and incredible profit.

Vehicles that are sold as compact cars can be any time later reused as full-blown Robotaxis and Tesla may even only lease them to have enough vehicles coming back if needed.

There is no bet or gamble but an awesome strategy. $tsla

h/t @avoigt
 
Someone posted about a new player in the grid-scale storage market (CATL IIRC) - I just got an invite from PV magazine to a presentation by the Chinese solar panel producer JinkoSolar talking about a similar product (including solar panels though), see below - seems like Tesla started a trend again with the MegaPack...

JinkoSolar is one of leading solar module providers with over 200 GW installed globally, which exceeds the cumulative installed capacity of the United States (about 180 GW). The company has now entered the energy storage market by developing a grid-scale containerized LFP battery storage system designed for U.S. projects.

As PV and batteries are increasingly coupled, the module supplier has housed its products as a complete package with both energy storage and solar modules. This has resulted in a new product called Eagle Complete, which the company describes as a bankable solar-plus-storage solution that can be procured from one source.

 
I don’t know about sounding the alarms, but inquiring minds would like to know why the numbers are down.? Tesla is still a relatively small auto manufacturer, and it’s at least curious why growth has stalled. One would think given the size of the auto market, the quality and price of Tesla’s products, particularly the Model 3 and Y, would continue to drive sales growth. Unfortunately, that’s not happening.
Another reason which is not helping sales is that Tesla can’t sell directly to customers in many states.
We seem to have accepted this but many people still have the buying from a physical location mindset.
 
Anyone who can point to a flowchart how this relates to the new voting shares for Elon?
Screenshot_2024-04-17-12-32-45-424_com.twitter.android-edit.jpg


Edit:

Tesla Sets Up a New Showdown Over Elon Musk’s Pay
The electric vehicle maker will ask shareholders to vote again on a multibillion-dollar compensation package that was voided by a judge in January

Screenshot_2024-04-17-12-44-30-810_com.twitter.android-edit.jpg
 
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I’m not a traffic engineer but here’s my contribution anyway. Autonomy allows for many sustainability improvements.

  • Make carpooling/ridesharing easier and more convenient
Agree with all except for the carpooling/ride sharing. These only work if 1) The people who carpool/rideshare live very close to each other or live along the route taken, and 2) their work hours never ever vary, not even once (they always start and end at exactly the same time each and every work day).
 
Copied over from "the other thread" courtesy of @Jim Holder.

Tesla preliminary Proxy statement filed:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm

Dear Fellow Stockholders,

We could call 2023 a watershed year for Tesla, with many defining moments. However, for Tesla — in light of our past accomplishments — 2023 could also be called just a typical year of triumphs and achievements. In 2023, the Model Y became the best-selling vehicle in the world, we launched our new Model 3 lineup, saw tremendous strides in our quest for FSD and we began deliveries of our innovative and highly anticipated Cybertruck.

We also witnessed the beginning of the significant growth of our Energy Storage and Services and Other businesses. We believe these types of triumphs and achievements are normal course for Tesla because Tesla is a nimble organization with an unmatched pace of innovation that has resulted in products and services that surpass all expectations driven by visionary leadership and most importantly the best and most dedicated employees in the world. We want to thank all of our employees for their outstanding efforts.

Of course, a key part of this nimble organization requires careful management of our resources. We recently announced a company-wide restructuring that reduces our headcount by more than 10% globally. Over the years, we have grown rapidly with multiple factories scaling around the globe. With this rapid growth, there has been a duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas. We believe it is extremely important to look at every aspect of our business for cost reductions and increasing productivity. This action will prepare us for our next phase of growth, as we are developing some of the most revolutionary technologies in auto, energy and artificial intelligence.

With Your Vote in the 2024 Annual Meeting, Tesla Will Thrive.

Our stockholders drive Tesla. Your votes and your voices make critical decisions for the future of our company, and we have and want to continue to listen to you. That is why we are asking for your support for all of our management proposals including re-election of two of our hardworking and dedicated directors, Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. However, there are two important proposals that I want to touch on here, that we believe are critical to the future success of Tesla, both of which were recommended following a rigorous and thoughtful analysis by an independent Special Committee, comprised of another one of our hardworking and dedicated directors in Kathleen Wilson-Thompson:

1) Approving moving Tesla’s state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas (Proposal Three); and

2) Ratifying Elon Musk’s compensation under the CEO pay package that our stockholders previously approved at our 2018 special meeting (Proposal Four).

Texas Is Tesla’s Home.
2024 is the year that Tesla should move home to Texas. We are asking for your vote to approve Tesla’s move from Delaware, our current state of incorporation, to a new legal home in Texas. Texas is already our business home, and we are committed to it. Gigafactory Texas is one of the largest factories in the United States, covering 2,500 acres along the Colorado River. The Gigafactory is the manufacturing hub for our most innovative vehicles, including the Cybertruck and the Model Y. We have a significant number of manufacturing, operations, and engineering employees in Texas, and our executives are based there. Texas is where we should continue working towards our mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy, as we lay the foundation for our growth with our ramp and build of factories for our future vehicles and to help meet the demand for energy storage as well as with our progress in artificial intelligence via full self-driving and Optimus.
We have received letters from thousands of Tesla stockholders — large and small — supporting a move home to Texas. We have heard you, and now we formally ask that you speak in a meaningful way: and vote in favor of taking Tesla to our business home of Texas.
Ratification Will Restore Tesla’s Stockholder Democracy.

Corporate democracy and stockholder rights are at the heart of Tesla’s values. Earlier this year, a Delaware Court ruling in Tornetta v. Musk (which can be found as Annex I to this Proxy Statement) struck down one of your votes and rescinded the pay package that an overwhelming majority of you voted to grant to our CEO, Elon Musk, in 2018. The Tornetta Court decided, years later, that the CEO pay package was not “entirely fair” to the very same stockholders who voted to approve it — even though approximately 73% of all votes cast by our disinterested stockholders voted to approve it in 2018.

Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value. That strikes us — and the many stockholders from whom we already have heard — as fundamentally unfair, and inconsistent with the will of the stockholders who voted for it.
The 2018 CEO pay package required Elon to deliver transformative and unprecedented growth to earn any compensation. It was a big risk, and many thought that the plan’s targets for benefits to stockholders were simply unachievable. But our company and our leaders have always had big dreams and it is fundamental to the entrepreneurial spirit of Tesla to take big risks for the chance at big rewards. This has led to the incredible innovation and progress — and economic gains — that we have achieved at Tesla. In 2018, we asked for unbelievable growth and accomplishments. Elon delivered: Tesla’s stockholders have benefited from unprecedented growth under Elon’s leadership and Tesla has met every single one of the 2018 CEO pay package’s targets.

And — most importantly for the future of Tesla — the 2018 CEO pay package built in further incentives to benefit Tesla stockholders by requiring that Elon hold onto any shares he receives when he exercises his options for five years — which means he will continue to be driven to innovate and drive growth at Tesla because the value of his shares will depend on it!

The Board stands behind this pay package. We believed in it in 2018, as we asked Elon to pursue remarkable goals to grow the company. You, as stockholders, also believed in it in 2018 when you overwhelmingly approved it. Time and results have only shown the wisdom of our judgment.
We do not agree with what the Delaware Court decided, and we do not think that what the Delaware Court said is how corporate law should or does work. So we are coming to you now so you can help fix this issue — which is a matter of fundamental fairness and respect to our CEO. You have the chance to reinstate your vote and make it count. We are asking you to make your voice heard — once again — by voting to approve ratification of Elon’s 2018 compensation plan.
Thank you for your continued support of Tesla, and, together with my fellow Board members, I hope you can join us for our 2024 annual meeting on June 13, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. Central Time.

Very truly yours,

[MISSING IMAGE: sg_robyndenholm-bw.jpg]


Robyn Denholm
Chairperson of the Board


Page 88-89:

As noted by the Special Committee, if the Company needed to replace Mr. Musk’s compensation with similar compensation in lieu of Ratification, such amounts would likely result in significant accounting charges, for the Company. The Company has determined if Tesla were to issue new stock option awards to purchase approximately 303.96 million shares of common stock, assuming no further vesting conditions or sale restrictions with the exercise price as the closing stock price of April 1, 2024, which was $175.22, the accounting implication would be an incremental compensation expense in excess of $25 billion, which is calculated using a Black-Scholes valuation model (assuming an expected term of five years), even when taking into account the reversal of original grant date fair value of the 2018 CEO Performance Award of approximately $2.3 billion.
 
Tesla BoD speaks on Delaware Court decision:


“The Tornetta Court decided, years later, that the CEO pay package was not “entirely fair” to the very same stockholders who voted to approve it — even though approximately 73% of all votes cast by our disinterested stockholders voted to approve it in 2018. Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value. That strikes us — and the many stockholders from whom we already have heard — as fundamentally unfair, and inconsistent with the will of the stockholders who voted for it.

The 2018 CEO pay package required Elon to deliver transformative and unprecedented growth to earn any compensation. It was a big risk, and many thought that the plan’s targets for benefits to stockholders were simply unachievable. But our company and our leaders have always had big dreams and it is fundamental to the entrepreneurial spirit of Tesla to take big risks for the chance at big rewards. This has led to the incredible innovation and progress — and economic gains — that we have achieved at Tesla. In 2018, we asked for unbelievable growth and accomplishments. Elon delivered: Tesla’s stockholders have benefited from unprecedented growth under Elon’s leadership and Tesla has met every single one of the 2018 CEO pay package’s targets. And — most importantly for the future of Tesla — the 2018 CEO pay package built in further incentives to benefit Tesla stockholders by requiring that Elon hold onto any shares he receives when he exercises his options for five years — which means he will continue to be driven to innovate and drive growth at Tesla because the value of his shares will depend on it!

The Board stands behind this pay package. We believed in it in 2018, as we asked Elon to pursue remarkable goals to grow the company. You, as stockholders, also believed in it in 2018 when you overwhelmingly approved it. Time and results have only shown the wisdom of our judgment.

We do not agree with what the Delaware Court decided, and we do not think that what the Delaware Court said is how corporate law should or does work. So we are coming to you now so you can help fix this issue — which is a matter of fundamental fairness and respect to our CEO. You have the chance to reinstate your vote and make it count. We are asking you to make your voice heard — once again — by voting to approve ratification of Elon’s 2018 compensation plan.

Thank you for your continued support of Tesla, and, together with my fellow Board members, I hope you can join us for our 2024 annual meeting on June 13, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. Central Time.

— Tesla
 
I’m not a traffic engineer but here’s my contribution anyway. Autonomy allows for many sustainability improvements.
  • Elimination of vast swathes of parking, which take up a huge amount of space and greatly contribute to urban heat island effects and stormwater runoff pollution. Replace with green space or more buildings. In many cities in North America parking is like 30% of the entire land area.

  • Elimination of spontaneous traffic waves that occur due to inefficient human driving behavior

  • Most vehicles can be right-sized for the job. Less wasted space, materials, energy. Less tire dust particulates.

  • Massively accelerate economic forces driving transition to EVs

  • Make carpooling/ridesharing easier and more convenient

  • More efficient driving behavior in general. Most humans drive aggressively and do not know how to maximize energy efficiency, or they do know and don’t care.

  • Fewer crashes clogging up roadways and contributing to inefficient stop-and-go traffic

  • Less roadway danger means cycling, walking, scootering and other similar modes of transportation become more appealing. Also, having affordable convenient robotaxis with bike rack options help solve the edge cases that make reliance of bicycle more challenging. It adds lots of flexibility to a bike-based trip in case of change of plans. (I did the impossible and lived car-free in an American suburban city for five years, and I would have loved to have a robotaxi option as a backup plan instead of the bus)

  • Shrinking the safe gap between vehicles due to elimination of ~1 second human reaction time for braking, which will enable more throughput for a given amount of road infrastructure. Also could improve aero efficiency from vehicles drafting each other better.

I don’t necessarily want to come off as disagreeing with this post as I respect all your contributions here.

However, I have seen some of these arguments for RT written here before as if they are a fact but I am having a hard time wrapping my small brain around some of these. Where is everyone getting these “facts” for RT?

I admit this is based on my bubble of the world but I don’t see myself or anyone I know giving up there car. Seems like way to much of an inconvenience.

Also, why would there be a large elimination of parking spaces? Assuming people give up car ownership (I don’t see that happening but), Commuting into my city for work would need a lot of RT. Wouldn’t they need to be parked somewhere near everyone’s home to be ready at any moment? Then won’t most of them need to be parked somewhere near all the commuters coming home? Also, how would it work when you have 1000s of people requesting RT all within the same hour to come home. Wouldn’t they need to be parked nearby for people to find them or at least be ready to pick someone up?

Same with carpooling, why would it make it easier and how would that even work and why would anyone want to carpool anymore than they do now?

Edit: just had another thought. FSD is pretty much useless around here in the winter. If people did give up there cars to use RTs I can imagine a major clusterfuck during rush hour when there is winter weather. Which would be another argument not to give up personal car ownership.
 
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It's hard to overstate the importance of this post. Every word is dripping with critical information:
  • Not quite betting the company: The company won't go bankrupt if autonomy fails. But Elon is still taking a huge risk.
  • going balls to the wall: Elon is reshaping the whole company around autonomy. Autonomy is all that matters to him right now.
  • autonomy is a blindingly obvious move: This is absolutely true. The opportunity is enormous and any entrepreneur would be a fool not to go for it.
  • Everything else is like variations on a horse carriage: This is also quite true. By "Everything else", Elon means any type of car without autonomy. That includes the Gen 3 consumer vehicle. Without autonomy, it's just another car. So do autonomy first.
We don't really need Elon's promised company update. He just told us the future of Tesla in one short post.

I think we can clearly see the future of $TSLA stock and it's really simple. If autonomy doesn't work, we're looking at $40 per share. If autonomy does work we could be looking at $4000 per share.

A blindingly obvious move indeed!
 
I’m not a traffic engineer but here’s my contribution anyway. Autonomy allows for many sustainability improvements.
  • Elimination of vast swathes of parking, which take up a huge amount of space and greatly contribute to urban heat island effects and stormwater runoff pollution. Replace with green space or more buildings. In many cities in North America parking is like 30% of the entire land area.

  • Elimination of spontaneous traffic waves that occur due to inefficient human driving behavior

  • Most vehicles can be right-sized for the job. Less wasted space, materials, energy. Less tire dust particulates.

  • Massively accelerate economic forces driving transition to EVs

  • Make carpooling/ridesharing easier and more convenient

  • More efficient driving behavior in general. Most humans drive aggressively and do not know how to maximize energy efficiency, or they do know and don’t care.

  • Fewer crashes clogging up roadways and contributing to inefficient stop-and-go traffic

  • Less roadway danger means cycling, walking, scootering and other similar modes of transportation become more appealing. Also, having affordable convenient robotaxis with bike rack options help solve the edge cases that make reliance of bicycle more challenging. It adds lots of flexibility to a bike-based trip in case of change of plans. (I did the impossible and lived car-free in an American suburban city for five years, and I would have loved to have a robotaxi option as a backup plan instead of the bus)

  • Shrinking the safe gap between vehicles due to elimination of ~1 second human reaction time for braking, which will enable more throughput for a given amount of road infrastructure. Also could improve aero efficiency from vehicles drafting each other better.
Love it Gigapress. Ever the gentleman. So don't get me wrong, I bought an EV truck (lightning) before CT was out and did so at great expense to turn off the keys on an F350 diesel; I am a huge believer in the transition to sustainable energy and transport. I also think FSD (level 3 capable) will be a great seller, I would be shocked if that was licensed and people did not buy it at over 50% uptake.

It's TaaS that is...smokey ..on fire...BS.

I would agree that it should be able to cut down on pedestrian death and reduce motorcycle and bicycle accidents. These are not to be dismissed but are tangential to the sustainability POV I was addressing. So I am not dismissing but turning attention to the energy efficiency & sustainability of TaaS.

I don't see any evidence that TaaS will improve traffic conditions. I mean maybe if the entire fleet was TaaS, maybe. I view that as never happening so I don't know why we'd give it mention. Tire wear in basically inconsequential compared to replacing an ICE with an EV. In my view the mission is to replace ICE with EV, that's what gets us to a transportation fleet that is the lowest impact possible. That and flying vehicles but safety issues with those have to be figured out.

I don't see commuter parking in San Fran, Dallas, Houston, DC, Phili, Chicago, etc going away due to TaaS because TaaS doesn't serve the needs of the average vehicle driver. FSD as a L3, YES. RT? nope. To change human patterns on traffic it has to be a time savings tool at a price point that is at least as cheap and with additional convenience. If I could have a taxi show up and haul me to work at 8 am and do nothing and not have to park . it could pick me up at 530 and home we go, fine. Get home get kids go to soccer clinics and then math tutor and grocery shopping- maybe all that in family car. TaaS will be able to do that for some, but only a small fraction of the population. What it does between 9am and 430? What do all the vehicles do then? They have to park somewhere (drive out of city or in a city deck) and then get to the point where they are needed before 430 or so. So they are either adding to traffic, driving empty miles, or they are parking.

When I started researching EVs in 2006/7 I quickly got a grasp of the challenges of battery chemistry, charging, our grid capabilities, etc. I looked for fundamental issues that would inhibit a transition to EVs. I did not find any killer roadblocks other than entropy of the OEMs (national champions). If you charted the improvements in battery capabilities and the expiration of patents it was clear that battery chemistry would be there in 20 years to enable the transition. Battery chemistry and management were really the roadblocks prior to 2005.

A similar basic analysis of TaaS fails. I look forward to any points that show how a TaaS fleet moves any significant portion of a city and thus impacts sustainability. The converse holds, I look forward to seeing points that demonstrate how a TaaS fleet is bad for the environment.
 

It's hard to overstate the importance of this post. Every word is dripping with critical information:
  • Not quite betting the company: The company won't go bankrupt if autonomy fails. But Elon is still taking a huge risk.
  • going balls to the wall: Elon is reshaping the whole company around autonomy. Autonomy is all that matters to him right now.
  • autonomy is a blindingly obvious move: This is absolutely true. The opportunity is enormous and any entrepreneur would be a fool not to go for it.
  • Everything else is like variations on a horse carriage: This is also quite true. By "Everything else", Elon means any type of car without autonomy. That includes the Gen 3 consumer vehicle. Without autonomy, it's just another car. So do autonomy first.
We don't really need Elon's promised company update. He just told us the future of Tesla in one short post.

I think we can clearly see the future of $TSLA stock and it's really simple. If autonomy doesn't work, we're looking at $40 per share. If autonomy does work we could be looking at $4000 per share.

A blindingly obvious move indeed!
So basically, sell now if you think autonomy/RTs can’t be solved anytime soon, if at all, or go all in if you think that not only will it be solved in a reasonable time frame but it will also be very profitable.
 
That obviously is possible but there are significant subsets of lessees and buyers who wealthy enough to be cash buyers and, for some brands, as much as 25% of lessees use prepaid leases (I.e. tax benefit lessees not finance lessees). Interest rate subvention does generate more sales to poorer customers.

Very careful segmentation of buyer populations is desirable, even necessary, to avoid serious negative consequences.

Despite popular opinion, ‘One size does not fit all’.

Tesla now needs very careful buyer segmentation. Example: when I bought my Model Y a couple months ago the staffers were quite insistent I should clam the tax credit, despite an obvious body of evidence that I was ineligible for that credit.

Tesla now needs far more comprehensive purchaser segmentation, including sales and delivery processing.

They were superb at that until around 2019…