Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

FSD V12 is so shiny it will blind you. Now that we've seen how fast Tesla can put out new versions, I expect that it's going to get so bright that nobody will be avert their eyes.

Have we?

I think we should wait until whenever 12.4 comes, how quickly it comes, and how much progress it has made to make that assessment.

The point releases, fixing bugs, have always come out quickly. I've downloaded 4 releases during v10 in an 8 day period.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Easy to "compare" sales from quarter with 0.99 APR and 8.99 APR and bitch about it. People have been robbed, they might get less cars.

Do you care to cite these 0.99 APR loans in Jan-Mar of 2023? I think you'll have a tough time because they didn't exist.

You're also blatantly ignoring Tesla cutting prices, which Elon said they do to match the interest rate changes.

 

[2daMoon]

Bill Gates and Elon are insanely polarizing.

This is only true for those who consider themselves as holding polar opposite views to Bill and/or Elon, and who feel it is important to make such a distinction.

Consider how, despite how strongly they feel, and, how their views are echoed loudly by their peer group such highly polarized folks are a minority of the whole.

To most everyone else (the majority) the feeling will be indifference to holding an opinion, at best.

Granted, there will be another highly vocal minority who will hold strong feelings and have peers echoing their feelz of adoration for Bill and/or Elon.

The mistake is how each of these minorities will believe with certainty that they are so completely right that it is obvious (only to them) that everyone must also believe as strongly as they do, and, this cannot be questioned.

George Orwell wrote much about these sort of people and what might happen if they rose to power.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yes, Elon is more disliked than a lot of CEOs. But he's also more liked. But I don't see why having a polarizing CEO would inherently lead to a suppression of demand. Positive opinions likely lead to more sales, negative opinions likely lead to fewer. Elon's favorability is probably a wash.

Dislike/hatred impact wallets more than people liking.

That being said, I've said maybe 3 times that there's no hard data that these sales are down because of Elon. It's a leap...While it does have SOME impact, I think logically it's small compared to the EV buying pool, the select amount of models, and pricing.

 

[replicant]

But I don't see why having a polarizing CEO would inherently lead to a suppression of demand. Positive opinions likely lead to more sales, negative opinions likely lead to fewer. Elon's favorability is probably a wash.

Unless the new kind of people who like him mostly support his new political opinions and do not care about his company's products. They may well be against them, by the way.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not hard at all. Tesla has the ability to gather all the training data it needs for that.

Probably, 12.3.3 already has some ability to handle hand signals and flag people. But I suspect that Tesla hasn't trained specifically for it yet. They will though.

Wow. Cool.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Hello everyone,

I haven't posted here in a long while.

I've been following Elon for about a decade. I live in Kingston, Ontario, where Elon went to Queen's University. Kingston is a small University town of about 130,000 people. Kingston is the first capital of Canada. Elon and I are about the same age. He and I were in this same little town together, once upon a time. No doubt we were at the same nightclub together, back in the day.

I test drove a Model S performance, in Toronto, in December of 2013. That experience changed my life. I instantly knew that Tesla was the future. I was in a difficult financial situation at the time, so could not purchase a $180,000 vehicle. I bought the stock instead.

Fast forward:

My wife and I now own two Tesla's (a Model 3 and a Model Y Performance). Our previous vehicle was a Mazda 3, bought used, we were a one car family. My life changed so significantly when I landed our first Tesla in October of 2021. I don't know how to make you all understand. Overnight I became a boss man in this little town. My life has been like a movie ever since.

I've banked on full self driving for a while now, learning from all of you for nearly a decade, thank you. This recent update, V12 is incredible. I've never felt more confident in my investment in TSLA.

Change is hard. A lot of people fight it. So true in my hometown, where Elon passed through. But change is coming, like it or not. All these Queen's kids adore Elon. This is where hope lies.

It sucks to have to get involved in politics. Nobody wants to. But it's been necessary for me, as our member of parliament in this little University town has been talking *sugar* about Elon, for a while now. His name is Mark Gerretsen and he is on his way to losing the next Federal election in fantastic fashion. He's sitting at 17% of the vote, while his conservative opponent is polling at 70%.

To summarize:

Life's a journey, folks. Stay true to yourself. Do what you know is right. Invest in same. Have patience. Rewards will come your way.

Sincere thank you and respect to you all. You've all taught me so much and I am forever grateful.

Change is coming. Love y'all.

 

[cusetownusa]

As I said in my original post on the data source, business figures in general are disliked in this current political climate. Only 30% of those polled have a positive opinion of Tim Cook, compared to 47% for Elon. You don't see articles citing Tim Cook's unpopularity as sinking Apple.

It's not about popularity imo. Tim Cook isn't polarizing and most people are indifferent about him. In fact, most people are indifferent about the CEO of any product they buy. While Elon has his fans and a higher "popularity" rating, he has a large amount of people that hate him so much they won't buy "his" products. I see it in my bubble of the world with a lot of people I know that simply won't buy a Tesla because of EM.

edit: Just for clarification, I am not saying he is or isn't the reason for the lack of demand. This is just what I see in my bubble. I can't think of another product that I know so many people that refuse to buy simply because of the CEO.

 

[GatorMeat]

I would go even further to say that Tesla is aware of this issue. Lately many other executives have been doing interviews, replying on Twitter, etc. Tesla is aware of the problem. Hopefully the problem gets truly resolved and I only see one way to accomplish this.

To the handful of people who will give me thumbs down. I don’t post often but when I do I speak the hard truth. I get 80% thumbs up, 10% hearts, 8% , and 2% thumbs down. Maybe start asking yourselves why you’re always the odd ones out.

I'm really wishing I sold everything in 2021 when the wife decided we needed to take "ELON" off our license plate. Looking back I don't know if I'm more embarrassed for driving around with that jack-a** on my plate, or for being dumb enough to be adding more shares then instead of selling in an obvious bubble

 

[EVNow]

Yes, Elon is more disliked than a lot of CEOs. But he's also more liked. But I don't see why having a polarizing CEO would inherently lead to a suppression of demand. Positive opinions likely lead to more sales, negative opinions likely lead to fewer. Elon's favorability is probably a wash.

Looks like Cook has better net positive ratings than Elon.

The other way of looking at it is
- How many will buy a product even if they don't like the CEO
- How many will not buy the product even if they like the CEO

Let me give my example - I don't like the CEO but I still buy Teslas. I like Cook but I don't buy Apple products (not completely true)

Tesla is in a unique position. The products they make mainly appeal to people who don't like the CEO The people who might like CEO's politics shout things like this at Tesla drivers ...

There was also the lifted truck loser incident.... On the way back, this loser is hanging out of the passenger side of a PoS PU yelling at me, "Nice Tesla you F'n faggot"... Over and over again! So, there was that...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I thought the plan was to ramp up production, and not to follow the auto industry stupid rules.

Did we forget the mission? If we have a demand problem, perhaps we should wonder why those who can afford a Tesla don't buy one. And do something about it (or be honest and drop the mission).

I think part of it is now with the opening of the supercharger network people can look at other cars and know they will still have access to reliable fast charging. The ford lots here are clearing out there EV inventories that were sitting there for the last 9 months. Talked to a fellow in the townhouses down the street and he bought his Mach E as soon as his sales guy phoned him and said they were available. Good for the mission…I suppose.

 

[woodisgood]

Easy to "compare" sales from quarter with 0.99 APR and 8.99 APR and bitch about it. People have been robbed, they might get less cars.

Seriously. Most people in my economic bracket are holding off on buying cars. I lust for a new Tesla to replace our out-of-warranty Model 3 or to get a CT that is finally here and that I can finally configure with a Day2 reservation, but it’s an obviously financially imprudent decision made even more imprudent by high rates, the deflation of my used Teslas, and the staggering inflation felt (and really hitting the books this year more than ever) in all areas of trying to raise a family. One kid’s preschool costs have increased by roughly the amount of a car payment on a new Tesla.

Unless one of our cars is totaled, there’s absolutely no justifiable reason to purchase one.

If I felt differently about that, THEN I could move on to whether I’ll consider one from a CEO who likes X’ing about politics.

Sustainable transportation should and needs to be economically advantageous. The folks who would like to delay the transition to sustainable energy have made significant moves broadly to slow it. Solar, which was an economic no-brainer for households in my area, just isn’t as attractive at the moment.

Opponents of the transition are heartened by these developments.

The chess match continues…

 

[kabin]

Dan Ives sound bites. He remains a long term bull but calls Q1 delivery numbers an unmitigated disaster, a nightmare quarter, train wreck. Demand is soft. Says TSLA is at a fork in the road - cut prices or darker days ahead.

 

[phantasms]

As I said in my original post on the data source, business figures in general are disliked in this current political climate. Only 30% of those polled have a positive opinion of Tim Cook, compared to 47% for Elon. You don't see articles citing Tim Cook's unpopularity as sinking Apple.

Oh you mean Tim Apple? He, rightly, quietly does his job and most people don’t even know who he is. Elon is a celebrity and a household name. Also, once again the issue is that the people who approve of Elon’s, um, tendencies, tend not to be people who can afford an EV or even have a desire to purchase an EV.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dan Ives sound bites. He remains a long term bull but calls Q1 delivery numbers an unmitigated disaster, a nightmare quarter, train wreck. Demand is soft. Says TSLA is at a fork in the road - cut prices or darker days ahead.

I stopped at "long term bull".

 

[MartinAustin]

At least Troy was closest to this bad P&D, and if people considered his analysis, short term, they could have profited.

Wrong. No need to "observe Troy" whatever that is or means. I am bullish on the company long-term, and know that, because it is a ratings magnet, and truly important... it is frequently manipulated. Therefore I am realistic about the stock. It was almost guaranteed to fall vs. the close yesterday, even if the numbers were good they would have any number of other reasons to cause the stock to fall and use that to claim it was because the numbers weren't good enough.

So I sold a bunch last night at $174 and bought it all back this morning at $165/$166.

 

[Linkmeup]

I stopped at "long term bull".

That reminds me of something I learned a long time ago. First rule of being famous:

Don't cater your message to your audience. Once that happens, you've lost your message.

 

[FreqFlyer]

It's not about popularity imo. Tim Cook isn't polarizing and most people are indifferent about him. In fact, most people are indifferent about the CEO of any product they buy. While Elon has his fans and a higher "popularity" rating, he has a large amount of people that hate him so much they won't buy "his" products. I see it in my bubble of the world with a lot of people I know that simply won't buy a Tesla because of EM.

Elon texting his opinions ( I buy Cook's products and know nothing of the man's opinion, and I am a tech geek) has made Tesla part of the political discussion, rightly or wrongly. The Rat.................errrrrrr.................. Walt Disney was falling into that trap and quickly got out of that arena. Why? It's not good for business.

 

[Usain]

Have we?

I think we should wait until whenever 12.4 comes, how quickly it comes, and how much progress it has made to make that assessment.

The point releases, fixing bugs, have always come out quickly. I've downloaded 4 releases during v10 in an 8 day period.

4 releases of V10 in 8 days? I don't remember that happening, but if you say so I believe you.

V10 and V12 are apples and oranges though. A fix for V10 might require only a small code change. Presumably, a fix for V12 requires some significant retraining.

I'd love to have better insight into how bug fixes releases are built in V12. But the speed of new V12 releases suggests that Tesla really has alleviated the computing bottleneck, which suggests we will see faster improvement.

All that being said, I agree with you that an evaluation of V12.4 progress will tell us more than any point release of V12.3.x

 

[FreqFlyer]

April 17th Earning's call should be entertaining.