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I guess since the distinction you're making is in regards to 5+ years old cars, I'm wondering...does it really matter at this point? Tesla offered something "coming in the future" and while they seem to be approaching the solution, still don't have it yet. It's been so long a wait for some. Unless someone wins a class action lawsuit here, it just seems like everyone is waiting for FSD. Maybe Tesla lawyers are tracking the difference between the groups that you suggest, but it looks to me like Tesla and Elon are working on a single FSD solution for all purchasers.Those buyers are still owed that in fact.... (versus the folks who bought April 2019 onward, where the product description during purchase never promises more than L2)
The pessimistic version doesn't even make sense. The only way Tesla stops growing is by running out of cash or they abandon all projects. They are know for never abandoning large growth vector projects even when they are running out of cash so I really have no idea under what circumstances growth stops forever.
Yeah but stocks are not valued at current cash flows but future cash flows. This is not the first time Tesla stops growthing as they saturate the price segment they are in. However they always have the next product segment in the works for their next phase. This happened with from roadster to S, and for s/x to 3/y. This allows them full saturation of said market without introducing osbourning, allow them to build out their service networks, and allowing time for suppliers to catch up. Like Tesla couldn't handle a low priced high volume car 3 years ago because today we see service centers and charging network being finally adequate for their 3/Y insane growth. The next gen is 10x the volume.Well we know the auto growth is at the very least slowing down drastically for a year or two, Tesla themselves have told us this and we can see it in the Q1 projections. We'll know just how slow in a few days, but it ain't looking great.
With Gen3 coming in two years we'll see growth again, but for now the big growth story seems done for a bit (for autos at least).
False. 40k semis (eventually 50k) and 150k Cybertrucks (eventually 250k) runrate within 12-18 months is the revenue equivalent of 500k M3s (eventually 700k+). That's "only" 25% growth (and eventually 35% growth) in Autos in the next year to year and a half, sure. But FSD and Energy are about to kersplode over that timeframe too!Well we know the auto growth is at the very least slowing down drastically for a year or two, Tesla themselves have told us this and we can see it in the Q1 projections. We'll know just how slow in a few days, but it ain't looking great.
With Gen3 coming in two years we'll see growth again, but for now the big growth story seems done for a bit (for autos at least).
I guess since the distinction you're making is in regards to 5+ years old cars, I'm wondering...does it really matter at this point? Tesla offered something "coming in the future" and while they seem to be approaching the solution, still don't have it yet. It's been so long a wait for some. Unless someone wins a class action lawsuit here, it just seems like everyone is waiting for FSD. Maybe Tesla lawyers are tracking the difference between the groups that you suggest, but it looks to me like Tesla and Elon are working on a single FSD solution for all purchasers.
BTW- I agree with your factual distinction, just not that Tesla has active plans to deliver differently.
Totally! I have never purchased a truck in my life, as I'm certain Kim Kardashian hasn't. I know over a dozen Tesla owners in my neightborhood who never owned a truck, but are buying CyberTruck.Is it just me?... does anyone else feel like CT is being underestimated ... it will take share from multiple segments , Large/Med Pickup truck, large/med SUV, station wagon
this may have been discussed before but the aftermarket for the CT is going to be huge ... and eventually it will become a virtuous cycle with newly created businesses ... the blank stainless triangle will be personalized in countless ways
False. 40k semis (eventually 50k) and 150k Cybertrucks (eventually 250k) runrate within 12-18 months is the revenue equivalent of 500k M3s (eventually 700k+). That's "only" 25% growth (and eventually 35% growth) in Autos in the next year to year and a half, sure. But FSD and Energy are about to kersplode over that timeframe too!
What if we want to chill out and live off the dividends?Nobody beats it. Tesla stands alone and apart from everyone else. The day they don’t, is the day they’ve run out of ideas, stopped innovating, become what every other OEM has become - stale, boring, predictable. That’s the day all of us long term investors need to exit the program.
Ray Zurzwell has been calling for AGI singularity by 2029 since the 80s. It appears OpenAI has extremely advanced AI they aren't sharing with the public. Sam Altman agrees with this timeframe of 2029. It is inevitable people; Robotaxis are less than 5 years away. Me? I'm in the 2026-2027 Robotaxi camp.
12-18 months meaning end of Q125-Q325.Honestly, do you really think Tesla will make 40K Semis and 150K CT's this year? Giga Nevada expansion is still under construction and the CT ramp is going nice but slowly, it's nowhere near anything resembling 150K/yr yet.
I hear you.Some inventions are, probably, 25-30 years later than the people in 1900 guessed. I'd suggest taking the word "inevitable" and turning it into "probably" to get away from fixed line of thinking to more of a growth mindset. The latter helps more with investing!
Paintings reveal what people in 1900 thought the year 2000 would look like
Lots of the ideas involve mechanized devices and flying while others, strangely, involve people interacting with marine lifewww.independent.co.uk
Here's How People 100 Years Ago Thought We'd Be Living Today
In 100 years, there will be flying taxis and people will routinely travel to the moon. Knowledge will be instilled into school children by wires attached to their heads. These may sound like the predictions of modern-day futurists, but they're actually how people a century ago saw the...www.wired.com
So you like censorship? He’s putting his life on the line for society and you couldn’t give a shot?I no longer see the CEO as a benevolent force for good.
Totally! I have never purchased a truck in my life, as I'm certain Kim Kardashian hasn't. I know over a dozen Tesla owners in my neightborhood who never owned a truck, but are buying CyberTruck.
Just wait until the CyberVan comes out of nowhere on the CyberTruck platform!
The Global fleet of trucks and vans are nearly equivalent to midsize sedan and crossover/SUV (3&Y) COMBINED! Think about that for a second. CyberTruck and CyberVan could number in the 2M+ PER YEAR range!
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Your patronisizng tone, suggesting we are all absolute idiots who don't understand the internet is where you lose people. I literally run heavily targeted, optimised ads on social media every day, and made that perfectly clear.Now I'm finished on this subject. It feels rather like trying to teach a new language to people who thing their single tongue should be the only one for the world. Since i live in a multilingual world I don't have the luxury to be ignoring new realities.