2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Keep it up and you'll be a technical analyst in no time. Next thing you know, you'll get a side-show gig with a traveling carnival.
Well played sir, well played.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Keep it up and you'll be a technical analyst in no time. Next thing you know, you'll get a side-show gig with a traveling carnival.
Well played sir, well played.
Someone on X mentioned that Tesla is allowing overtime in Germany. If true, I think it's possible we can ignore the power outage impact on Q1. If the materials and supplies during downtime showed up, we will have the Blitz. They are a highly motivated workforce - fighting back!Elon visited Giga Berlin today to speak to employees, production is running again. He reassured reporters who asked that the factory will be expanded to 1 million cars/year: "Yes, of course."
Tesla Grünheide: Elon Musk besucht nach Anschlag die Gigafactory – Produktion läuft
Eine Woche nach dem Brandanschlag hat Tesla in Grünheide wieder Strom und bekommt Besuch vom Chef. Elon Musk spricht zu den Mitarbeitern. Alles Wichtige im Newsblog.www-moz-de.translate.goog
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
The Tesla Model 2 could arrive no earlier than 2027
The Tesla Model 2 will be unveiled in 2025, but in 2026 production will not exceed 500,000 units and only in 2027 will it be over a million
uk.motor1.com
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The Tesla Model 2 could arrive no earlier than 2027
The Tesla Model 2 will be unveiled in 2025, but in 2026 production will not exceed 500,000 units and only in 2027 will it be over a million
A great use for AI would be to auto-fire any editor that approves deeply misleading headlines.
Headline "Tesla model 2 could arrive no earlier than 2027"
Actual story content: "Tesla model 2 is likely to arrive in 2025, but 7-figure-volume-production probably won't be before 2027 as they ramp"
THAT said--- the actual story is interesting for the fact it mentions that opinion comes from another analysist group that attended the recent IR event Tesla held at Austin factory.... so it's yet another voice who got out of that meeting Tesla is not moving as fast as some folks in here keep hoping and it's gonna be a slow year or two in the short term.
That lot's of people in China buy them.
Because they don't sell much in Norway - here is our top 20 in February - even Mazda sold more EVs than BYD - here where all EV makers test the markets because we try them all:
- Tesla Model Y: 1749 biler (2711)
- Toyota bZ4X: 389 biler (524)
- Volkswagen ID.4: 267 biler (436)
- Volvo EX30: 235 biler (330)
- Nissan Leaf: 230 biler (493)
- Hyundai Kona: 222 biler (504)
- MG 4: 210 biler (367)
- Nissan Ariya: 206 biler (389)
- Volvo XC40: 174 biler (331)
- Ford Mustang Mach-E: 150 biler (292)
- Audi Q4 e-tron: 147 biler (296)
- Volkswagen ID.3: 140 biler (260)
- Toyota Yaris/Yaris Cross: 140 biler (200)
- Toyota Corolla/Corolla Cross: 125 biler (147)
- Skoda Enyaq: 119 biler (192)
- Hyundai Ioniq 5: 105 biler (151)
- Subaru Solterra: 105 biler (114)
- Polestar 2: 102 biler (178)
- BMW i4: 101 biler (141)
- Mazda MX-30: 100 biler (181)
It was always going to be about the consumer.
www.cnbc.com
"The adoption curve of EVs rapidly went through first adopters and some “EV curious” consumers, but has been a tougher sell with mainstream buyers."
"
Biden is reportedly expected to dial back certain targets amid the slower-than-expected pace of EV adoption, which was a major piece of his plans to combat climate change.
Looming in the distance, too, is the U.S. presidential election in November. If former President Donald Trump is reelected, he’s expected to scale back or remove the fuel economy mandates, as he did during his first term in office.
A reversal of those standards come January could pave the way for an even longer era of gas-powered and hybrid models.
Automakers operating in Europe face stricter governmental EV regulations, which currently aim to ban sales of traditional, fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035. However, changes have already been made to the regulations and conservative groups such as the European People’s Party have called for dropping the ban."
EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice for U.S. car shoppers
Automakers from Ford and GM to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.
www.cnbc.com
"The adoption curve of EVs rapidly went through first adopters and some “EV curious” consumers, but has been a tougher sell with mainstream buyers."
"
Biden is reportedly expected to dial back certain targets amid the slower-than-expected pace of EV adoption, which was a major piece of his plans to combat climate change.
Looming in the distance, too, is the U.S. presidential election in November. If former President Donald Trump is reelected, he’s expected to scale back or remove the fuel economy mandates, as he did during his first term in office.
A reversal of those standards come January could pave the way for an even longer era of gas-powered and hybrid models.
Automakers operating in Europe face stricter governmental EV regulations, which currently aim to ban sales of traditional, fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035. However, changes have already been made to the regulations and conservative groups such as the European People’s Party have called for dropping the ban."
Do we know BYD margins on BEV only? No.
Not likely anyway, or we'd be comparing them all day long. But at $15K, no way they have margins to speak of. The debate is more about whether BYD is being subsidized, which could be just a cheap shot stemming from denial, but show me the numbers! Hybrids are easy on battery costs so expecting way better margins there. That's more about Japan's issue at the moment.
No one can know where the bottom is unless they have a crystal ball. My suspicion is we'll see the bottom after the Q1 ER unless some huge surprise to the upside happens. Maybe like an outstanding Megapack quarter, or they announce a surprise date for Optimus production beginning very soon. And then from Q2 onward TSLA would likely start rising again, hopefully.
As for what the actual bottom might be, well no one can accurately predict that. If we assume our PE falls down further due to very low production growth or even stagnation, well then honestly that $125 per share which Well's Fargo is forecasting could be possible in the short term.
This roller coaster ride could get nauseous for a bit!
Please don't.
If the original creator doesn't want it available, we should respect that.
(censorship has not been proven).
To be honest, who cares if her predictions outside of TSLA are bad? I don't. She was right ~3 years ago when NOBODY else had seen what she did see. It was even tougher than now. By (only) her predictions TSLA did go up 22x whether you like it or not.
Too many myopic folks look only at hard numbers while not seeing the outside working hard on influencing the markets especially TSLA.
Remove the covids, "Twitter Overhangs", Ukraine War, Legalized naked short selling, ICE and Fuel subsidies which are all made up and we'll see if she is right or wrong.
Cool with me. Go ahead and count quarterly delivery numbers to a single unit and bitch about it.
But, don't tell me that your daily number crunching tells the full story about Untie C and Tesla. Different strokes for different folks. Your money too.
The thing is Cathie's model isn't terrible, she's modeling a Robotaxi service fairly well IMHO. Her model is just extremely premature and way too optimistic with regards to the timeframe. Eventually her model will be mostly correct, you just need to bop the dates she provides way out into the future. Like 3-5 years out I'd say.
Summary please? What's this about... a post showing V12 FSD and the owner took it down - out of fear, harassment, errors???
In 3-5 years we’ll bop those dates out another 3-5 years, as has been the case since like 2016.
Possibly.
At some point Tesla will get FSD to level 5, it's a matter of when not if. Once FSD is good enough the robotaxis will follow. I think it will take a few years more for robotaxis even after FSD is solved, but many people like (Cathy) feel it will happen much faster.
So, if an investor also believes Tesla will get there in time too, then holding long becomes an easier proposition. Even through the doldrums we are seeing now.
More correctly, it's another voice from someone who's income depends on legacy auto.
Krugerrand
Meow
The point, sir, that’s being purposely ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative being pushed is that regardless of her model, she’s the only one (besides Andrea James) that got the outcome correct.
All the other ‘experts’ with their schooling, education, decades in the business etc… got the model AND outcome wrong for the past decade+.
Yet, certain people still want to cling to these erroneous methods of prediction and resultant erroneous outcomes because? Someday they might be right? It’s different this time? They’re unable to learn from past mistakes? Ego won’t let them accept they’ve been wrong for years? You can’t teach an old dog new tricks? They have an ulterior motive?
Q1 pessimistic predictions may end up being correct with the help of two vectors of terrorism and several other economic, logistic, whathaveyou factors, continued barrage of negativity and lies from media articles, well-timed downgrades etc…, most of which were entirely unknown and unpredicted. I guarantee the usual suspects won’t mention that they got the right outcome via the wrong assumptions. But when they get the outcome wrong, while someone else got it correct suddenly finger pointing and outrage that the other’s model was wrong. Please.
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