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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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After usc posted that, I went to chatgpt and asked it to draft an email for a contract renewal, and in addition to me having to think about how to ask it with enough detail in the question, it gave me a verbose email that was not in my style and included many things like offering an "in-person" meeting that I didn't want. Basically, the email draft was useless and I could have better spent 5 minutes to draft it myself.

I can see how it might be useful for essays and school homework, but as is, you need to put a lot of effort into the prompt itself in order to get the output you desire, and if you give it enough detail, you may as well do it yourself :)
I find it pretty useful both personally and in my job in finance. A couple of examples:

  • Employee annual reviews. I type the key points in short form and ask chat GPT to covert it into corporate speak. I also get it to change the tone of the message if it sounds too negative. A gripe turns into an exciting opportunity to improve.
  • When learning a new industry I upload all the relevant public regulation and get a decent summary of the context.
  • When justifying positions I ask what are the main reasons for doing x to see if there's any good ideas I can add to bolster the argument that I might have missed.
 
So here’s a question for you? If you’re finding mistakes about topics you’re well-versed in, how are you determining what is true or false on topics you don’t know? And how is that unknowing what is true or false helpful? Does it not simply muddy the waters?

Ok, more than one question. I simply don’t understand why anyone would purposely go to a source that they know provides incorrect information to garner information about something they don’t know about. It’s confusing to me. It would be like reading WSJ/Reuters online articles to get accurate Tesla information.
At least one cat is direct, clear, concise and conveys a very pertinent question.
I have tried ChatGTP and cringed at the responses, so decided to wait until some vestige of QC creeps in.
In the meantime, conventional searches are rapidly improving.
Sometime this will be useful, but right now it is far too much like fact-checking an undergraduate in Marketing 101. Oddly that is an area in which ChatGTP and it's ilk can probably have high approval since the internet is rife with incorrect facts and inept examples.
The fundamental problem really may not be so much the design as the chosen universe for training.
The acronym GIGO still applies, does it not?
 
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I am considering allowing use of a poll of this thread’s participants to learn who here uses ChatGPT. Age and educational levels of contributors might be appropriate subsets as well.

Full disclosure: I am alarmed at your statement about its use amongst your ken.
I would be more alarmed had @NicoV not so kind pointed out the painfully obvious.
Use cases are fundamental to understand.
1.For highly specific tangible data, such as code snippets, it's easy to understand how present solutions might be excellent time savers.
2. For insight into topics that are broad, diffuse or often subject to misunderstanding by 'reputable' sources the utility may disappear entirely and be replaced with widely repeated misinformation.

In other words, changing to a much faster and more robust search methods does not instantly improve the quality of the search itself. It usually improves speed and often detail; great stuff if they're correct.

I was enlightened by @NicoV 's comment because that point had not yet been made anywhere I have seen. It is so basic and fundamental that I was convinced I've always known that. Convinced, certainly, but Wrong!
 
This is a really universal statement that, while obvious to many, really needs to be made more clear to assorted critics/journalists/analysts/etc., as well as "regular people" in the world.

So many will point out the tremendous problems that would result if we transitioned to 100% EV's and renewable power "tomorrow." Well, duh?!? As you said, transition takes time...both on the production side and the actual transition side of the process. If we took every coal and gas power plant off the grid tomorrow, the world would crash because the renewables and storage haven't been built up yet. If somebody snapped their fingers and somehow converted every car on the road to electric tomorrow, of course various aspects of the infrastructure wouldn't be ready to handle the change. And of course today's EV's don't meet 100% of needs either...but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be considered for the 95% of uses where they do work.

Related to that, my mind jumps to my rather simple philosophy that "jerks and idiots ruin everything."

For EV's and renewables, it comes down to: Anybody publishing articles or otherwise telling others that the world *can't* or *shouldn't* transition to EV's and renewables because it isn't ready *today* is either:
  1. A jerk who is knowingly lying to deceive people
  2. An idiot who believed one of those liars
  3. An idiot who just willy-nilly came to their own poorly thought out conclusion and thinks it has value
I won't get into the assorted other aspects of life where this philosophy seems to relate well to reality...but it really fits into so many "controversial" or "political" subjects....
People that say the grid cant handle an immediate transition should be just pushed aside. No one is suggesting that it is possible with the grid, but more importantly it isnt possible period. It is utter nonsense, so the hypothetical is nonsense. With that pushing to transition as fast as possible is a good thing. The grid can handle us moving faster and moving faster benefits us in many ways. I winter in Key West and in general I love it. One thing that would truly make Key West a more pleasant place is transitioning to electric landscape appliances like California is pushing. In the morning Key West is really loud with gas lawn blowers cleaning up from the humanity. That and diesel trucks delivering and cleaning up. Moving to electric lawn appliance and electric delivery trucks would be incredible for not use the green energy reasons, but for human health related to noise pollution.
 
Seems like Copilot has a pretty good take on what's been going on in this thread lately... Plus it could moderate too!

Mod: disagree. Please take followups to the AI thread. --ggr
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People that say the grid cant handle an immediate transition should be just pushed aside. No one is suggesting that it is possible with the grid, but more importantly it isnt possible period. It is utter nonsense, so the hypothetical is nonsense. With that pushing to transition as fast as possible is a good thing. The grid can handle us moving faster and moving faster benefits us in many ways. I winter in Key West and in general I love it. One thing that would truly make Key West a more pleasant place is transitioning to electric landscape appliances like California is pushing. In the morning Key West is really loud with gas lawn blowers cleaning up from the humanity. That and diesel trucks delivering and cleaning up. Moving to electric lawn appliance and electric delivery trucks would be incredible for not use the green energy reasons, but for human health related to noise pollution.
...and... American utility companies are completely and totally focused on the transition to electric vehicles. They are very cognizant of it. They are not being taken by surprise. I don't want to bother looking for that meme, but... top men are working on it... right now.

Here's a great website I follow regularly for news in that sector. Utility and Energy Transmission & Distribution News | Utility Dive
 
Nice catch!

Yeah, IIRC the focus there was about getting to massive scale. The background of the image of the shirt is racks and racks of that part, illustrating the scale....
Worth re-visiting that hint from back then. Tesla were clearly thinking about producing a LOT of model 3s and Ys. They may have decided back then that they would be happy to see prices drop, and even margins drop, if they could sell a crazy number of 3s and Ys.
I think margins on 3/Y will recover significantly once Tesla have a cheaper model 2. Right now, if they can make and sell a Y with a $100 profit, it still makes sense. Otherwise that customer buys a Nissan or BYD. Once the model 2 is out there to compete below $30k, 3 and Y prices can drift back to where they belong.
Perhaps they realised the 2 was delayed (because CT was delayed, and maybe 4680s delayed), so decided to have the 3/Y fill in the interim?
I would prefer they only did this with a 'short range' 3/Y to keep some product differentiation, especially in Europe where a Short range EV is fine, but I guess Tesla don't like making short range cars.
 
Worth re-visiting that hint from back then. Tesla were clearly thinking about producing a LOT of model 3s and Ys. They may have decided back then that they would be happy to see prices drop, and even margins drop, if they could sell a crazy number of 3s and Ys.
I think margins on 3/Y will recover significantly once Tesla have a cheaper model 2. Right now, if they can make and sell a Y with a $100 profit, it still makes sense. Otherwise that customer buys a Nissan or BYD. Once the model 2 is out there to compete below $30k, 3 and Y prices can drift back to where they belong.
Perhaps they realised the 2 was delayed (because CT was delayed, and maybe 4680s delayed), so decided to have the 3/Y fill in the interim?
I would prefer they only did this with a 'short range' 3/Y to keep some product differentiation, especially in Europe where a Short range EV is fine, but I guess Tesla don't like making short range cars.
This pricing volatility would continue to scare buyers away, IMO. Definitely fleet buyers have gotten scared as leasing becomes really difficult (for that, you want stable residuals and predictable pricing).

Making $100 on a car sale is good? Sure if your alternative is $0, but that’s not really a strategy and it doesn’t make for an aspirational brand.
 
This pricing volatility would continue to scare buyers away, IMO. Definitely fleet buyers have gotten scared as leasing becomes really difficult (for that, you want stable residuals and predictable pricing).
Hasn’t there always been price volatility? Nobody noticed it because it was hidden from them. Tesla doesn’t hide their pricing, so suddenly people are ‘omg!’.

Not only that, they’re ‘omg!’ margins because they’re being told they should be ‘omg!’ by the usual suspects who for some odd 🙄 reason aren’t ‘omging!’ about Ford’s EV margins, or anyone else’s for that matter.

Tesla doesn’t sell to many fleet buyers. OMG, right!? It’s not because of some pricing volatility, it’s because Tesla doesn’t offer ‘fleet pricing’. For some strange reason fleet buyers think they should get discounts due to volume buying. Why were fleet buyers ever given discounted pricing? Rhetorical.

It’s like the biggest magic trick on the planet. Look over here, so you don’t see what’s going over there that we don’t want you to see. Magic isn’t as fun when you look where you’re not supposed to.