Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

I found this article interesting. Kind of about Honda but gives some insight into Canada’s strategy into staying relevant in the EV supply chain.

Honda talks test Canada’s desire to move away from blockbuster EV subsidies - BNN Bloomberg

Canada’s strategy to lure electric vehicle manufacturing is shifting away from multibillion-dollar production subsidies. But that transition will be put to the test as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government negotiates with Honda Motor Co. over a potential new EV battery plant in Canada.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[Thumper]

Wyoming, North Dakota and Texas. Fossil fuel economies!

 

[KBF]

I think he missed the fact that the estimates are in fact very helpful to the 99.9% of the investing public that don’t religiously follow the daily/weekly/monthly tesla registrations in dozens of different countries, you know the people that aren’t like us freaks.

Genuinely curious: helpful for what, exactly? Day trading around quarterly reports/playing with options (trying to 'get ahead' of institutional traders who actually move the stock)?

Or is there something else where his numbers can actually be used to improve gains beyond just looking at actual financial statements when published and analysing the long term fundamentals, or evaluating their published plans?

I could see an argument that delivery numbers mattered when Tesla was starting out years ago, proving they could actually deliver a real product. That time seems to have passed. Tesla decided to pushing for quarterly end goals (and risking burning out employees), and it was a wise move. It made sense when they were striving for legitimacy, but it's just unnecessary now as far as I can see.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why not 2? Or more? Hell they're cheap and they can afford it... even though the SP would go down on Monday 'cause Tesla is so demand challenged they resorted to advertising...

Well, $7M for 30 sec is not "cheap" but Tesla can certainly afford one such Ad, especially if it has a 'QR' code to take your smart phone to the order page! (Tesla is also buying insight into the effect of National advertising).

Super Bowl 30-second ad costs 2024 | Statista

Advertisers spent seven million U.S. dollars on average to air a 30-second-long commercial during the Super Bowl LVI broadcast in 2023.

www.statista.com

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

New ATH Close: $410 by Wed, Dec 17, 2025

#Predict

 

[Tony73]

Being mission orientated, Tesla aims to scale ASAP and is more than happy to take outsized market share by scaling faster than others can.,

IMO the preparation for fast scaling is similar to "sharpening an axe" and it is one of the things Tesla does very well, even when it isn't readily apparent.

Ironically interconnection issues and NIMBYism are major problems the industry needs to address before it can really take off. No one wants to live near a large Li ion battery installation

 

[Tony73]

Genuinely curious: helpful for what, exactly? Day trading around quarterly reports/playing with options (trying to 'get ahead' of institutional traders who actually move the stock)?

Or is there something else where his numbers can actually be used to improve gains beyond just looking at actual financial statements when published and analysing the long term fundamentals, or evaluating their published plans?

I could see an argument that delivery numbers mattered when Tesla was starting out years ago, proving they could actually deliver a real product. That time seems to have passed. Tesla decided to pushing for quarterly end goals (and risking burning out employees), and it was a wise move. It made sense when they were striving for legitimacy, but it's just unnecessary now as far as I can see.

Tesla is hobby to many people

Beyond investing a lot of people are simply interested in Tesla as a company. This site usually compiles estimates from members and the “winner” comes out to take a bow when numbers are released. Same thing happens on Twitter with the Tesla community there. Troy himself is more of a hobbyist than an investor.

On the investing side, this is an extremely volatile stock. People want to know if there are any surprises brewing with delivery numbers especially in the second half of the year. There are enough people buying what he is selling for him to devote as much time as he does.

 

[lascavarian]

Good post. I would love to see an AWD model Y with trailer towing package and an additional 20 percent of range. We would buy it immediately. But I don’t get the impression that tesla feels longer range vehicles are desirable to customers. I think the cybertruck is evidence of this.

Jmho

I had a Jeep Gran Cherokee I could use to trailer trash to the dump although it would overheat a bit. Sold it and trailer in anticipation of CT but CT feature set for driving to the dump bit of overkill.

I need ground clearance, tow package, AWD so some model Y Adventure configuration with trailer would be an immediate buy.

With a feature to power the home and it would be irresistible. Sort of a mini CT in functionality.

I have wondered if the CT design choices implied some configuration flexibility in the coming Y refresh.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Not directly linked to Tesla but an important aspect to viability of EVs, electrification and energy security themes as gas is used for electricity generation at peak times, but less than previously.

This provides anti-EV /tesla FUD with a grain of truth for the crystal of lies to grow eg EVs sometimes powered by fossil fuels becomes "run on coal".

Article dated 9 Feb 2024. Europe is still in winter, but out of danger of running out of gas/ heating /electricity for this winter, except in a few geographic areas. Even this will improve this year and beyond. Changes were made fast, pace can continue as many blockages to energy security have been lessened.

The European Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, has emphasised that Russia no longer has leverage to manipulate Europe's energy market as as happened after the invasion of Ukraine.

She said that this is because right now, the EU's underground gas storage facilities are full.

EU's underground gas storage facilities full, says Simson

The European Energy Commissioner has emphasised that Russia no longer has leverage to manipulate Europe's energy market as as happened after the invasion of Ukraine because, right now, the EU's underground gas storage facilities are full.

www.rte.ie

 

[cliff harris]

Superbowl ads are always a bad idea, unless your target market completely overlaps with American sports fans. For a global company, that is looking to build up specific markets, in specific demographics, its insane.
Frankly any TV or movie theater ad is ridiculous. These things only exist because they were established before the internet allowed proper audience targeting and tracked the results. Given a choice between picking very specific targets based on youtube viewing history and IP address versus just spamming a big expensive advert on a single day, for a single sport, for a single country...

Yes I get it, the superbowl is well known, and people outside the USA watch it. But frankly people inside the USA often forget that the USA is not the whole universe. Apart from anything, your superbowl ad is provided in a single language. Madness.

Superbowl ads are the option picked by middle aged CEOs with zero understanding of marketing or targeting. Its a real coup for the people selling those ads that they constantly find a queue of companies with more money than sense to sell them to. I suspect a big chunk of the appeal is to the ego of the CEO. Anyone working in marketing analytics is probably drinking themselves unconscious on the day the CEO orders a TV/movie/superbowl advert.

 

[rentierparasit]

Tesla is hobby to many people

Beyond investing a lot of people are simply interested in Tesla as a company. This site usually compiles estimates from members and the “winner” comes out to take a bow when numbers are released. Same thing happens on Twitter with the Tesla community there. Troy himself is more of a hobbyist than an investor.

On the investing side, this is an extremely volatile stock. People want to know if there are any surprises brewing with delivery numbers especially in the second half of the year. There are enough people buying what he is selling for him to devote as much time as he does.

Hi, all --

I've noticed that sell-side estimates have improved noticably since Troy started getting some press.

Yours,
RP

 

[Buckminster]

Superbowl ads are always a bad idea, unless your target market completely overlaps with American sports fans. For a global company, that is looking to build up specific markets, in specific demographics, its insane.
Frankly any TV or movie theater ad is ridiculous. These things only exist because they were established before the internet allowed proper audience targeting and tracked the results. Given a choice between picking very specific targets based on youtube viewing history and IP address versus just spamming a big expensive advert on a single day, for a single sport, for a single country...

Yes I get it, the superbowl is well known, and people outside the USA watch it. But frankly people inside the USA often forget that the USA is not the whole universe. Apart from anything, your superbowl ad is provided in a single language. Madness.

Superbowl ads are the option picked by middle aged CEOs with zero understanding of marketing or targeting. Its a real coup for the people selling those ads that they constantly find a queue of companies with more money than sense to sell them to. I suspect a big chunk of the appeal is to the ego of the CEO. Anyone working in marketing analytics is probably drinking themselves unconscious on the day the CEO orders a TV/movie/superbowl advert.

I disagree, Super Bowl ads go viral, reach older and younger audiences that wouldn't otherwise see ads and can create a halo affect that builds a desirable brand.

Not that I think Tesla are ready for it this year. UK Christmas ads are similar if you are a supermarket but I don't have a thread for that yet...

 

[Artful Dodger]

So it begins...

Musk's Neuralink Ditches Delaware, Reincorporates in Nevada | bnnbloomberg.ca (15 hrs ago)

Musk’s Neuralink Ditches Delaware, Reincorporates in Nevada - BNN Bloomberg

Elon Musk’s brain implant company, Neuralink Corp., switched the location of its business incorporation to Nevada from Delaware, taking steps to cut ties to a state where Musk has suffered significant legal setbacks — one over pay and another over his acquisition of Twitter.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Cheers to the West!

 

[cliff harris]

UK Christmas ads are a UK only phenomena, normally for UK retail stores only in the UK.
Superbowl ads charge a global premium to market to mostly Americans, in English. The US is less than half of Tesla's market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Superbowl ads are always a bad idea, unless your target market completely overlaps with American sports fans. For a global company, that is looking to build up specific markets, in specific demographics, its insane.

'Always' is mostly hyperbole. A simple, highly-visible one-time ad has been shown to be highly effective for elevating a brand. This 1985 Superbowl ad still resonates today after 4 decades:

Let's see what their new L.A. ad working group* comes up with.
*personally, I'm rooting for Ross the Lemming...

 

[unk45]

Hi, MC3OZ --

> In relation to Tesla's mission 2054 is far too late

I'm not sure that Tesla's mission is relevant to my concerns, which are pretty focused on valuation.

>, they would like it to be closer to 2030.

Doubtless!

> Tesla aims to scale ASAP and is more than happy to take outsized market share by scaling faster than others can.,

When thinking about "scaling" ... I'm going to paste in something from the other thread:

------------------

" To get a sense of capital costs, check out this Google map of the Lathrop plant:

Google Maps​

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

"Just tool around, zoom in and out. This modest sized building in an undistinguished industrial area has 40GWh capacity, or about 1/3 of McKinsey's 2023 global estimates."

----------------

When thinking about scaling, Laptrhop <> Austin.

I don't want to sound like I'm dunking on Megapacks. The bears who assign 0 value to the Energy business are wrong. Tesla is a leader in a rapidly growing market and I expect will remain so. The question is, "What's that worth?" Tesla could spin off the BESS business tomorrow. Where could/should that trade? Or to put it differently, if Tesla spun off BESS, how much should the stock drop by post-spin? My current best guess (and that's all it is!) is that BESS value is relevant only in extreme downside scenarios.

I'm hoping that someone will pop up and show me where I'm wrong.

Sorry for being so tedious! I'm interested in the topic and sometimes willing to ignore that others might not be.

Yours,
RP

Here in this thread and in the TE specific ones we tend the ficus in Tesla as though there are not credible competitors. These are not BEV. Companies such as Huawei (only in the BESS business for four years but already a major factor in utility-level and large commercial. BYD has had fully integrated solutions, highly scalable. This article just scratches the surface:

Battery Energy Storage System Market - Global Size, Share & Industry Analysis [Latest]

The global Battery Energy Storage System Market Size was valued at USD 5.4 Billion in 2023 and to reach USD 17.5 Billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% from 2022 to 2028.

www.marketsandmarkets.com

Siemens, Honeywell and many others are moving as Huawei is, from a utility-centric perspective.
As Elon has said growth is so rapid that almost infinite capacity can be absorbed.
With all the growth it is very hard to forecast, but much of the growth is coming from places unconsidered by most vendors and analysts. Remember Huawei entered the market only four years ago and instantly became a major player because of utility installed base of other equipment. Both Honeywell and Siemens are similar. Just think of LG and Samsung, well established in numerous utility services and products.

Tesla needs, quite urgently to establish TE jglobally, with vehicles to follow. There is much to learn from Huawei and BYD precedent, primarily in distribution priority tactics, not so much in technology perhaps. The next major move really should involve heat pump incorporation in both commercial and residential solution packages.

What are we waiting for? We have the pieces, all of them, including factory BESS plus energy management.

 

[Tony73]

Superbowl ads are always a bad idea, unless your target market completely overlaps with American sports fans. For a global company, that is looking to build up specific markets, in specific demographics, its insane.
Frankly any TV or movie theater ad is ridiculous. These things only exist because they were established before the internet allowed proper audience targeting and tracked the results. Given a choice between picking very specific targets based on youtube viewing history and IP address versus just spamming a big expensive advert on a single day, for a single sport, for a single country...

Yes I get it, the superbowl is well known, and people outside the USA watch it. But frankly people inside the USA often forget that the USA is not the whole universe. Apart from anything, your superbowl ad is provided in a single language. Madness.

Superbowl ads are the option picked by middle aged CEOs with zero understanding of marketing or targeting. Its a real coup for the people selling those ads that they constantly find a queue of companies with more money than sense to sell them to. I suspect a big chunk of the appeal is to the ego of the CEO. Anyone working in marketing analytics is probably drinking themselves unconscious on the day the CEO orders a TV/movie/superbowl advert.

The US is a huge market. It was 30% of Tesla sales last year and is nowhere near saturation. The superbowl is TV’s biggest event and people actually want to see the ads. I am not necessarily saying it is the right move for Tesla but it makes sense why a lot of brands find paying for Super Bowl ads worthwhile. Super Bowl ads are not expensive when you adjust for the numbers of eyeballs, interest in seeing the ads and the buzz the ads generate in the days after the game.

Most TV ads are market specific anyway so to dismiss the superbowl out of hand because it is US specific does not add up.

 

[Tony73]

Here in this thread and in the TE specific ones we tend the ficus in Tesla as though there are not credible competitors. These are not BEV. Companies such as Huawei (only in the BESS business for four years but already a major factor in utility-level and large commercial. BYD has had fully integrated solutions, highly scalable. This article just scratches the surface:

Battery Energy Storage System Market - Global Size, Share & Industry Analysis [Latest]

The global Battery Energy Storage System Market Size was valued at USD 5.4 Billion in 2023 and to reach USD 17.5 Billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% from 2022 to 2028.

www.marketsandmarkets.com

Siemens, Honeywell and many others are moving as Huawei is, from a utility-centric perspective.
As Elon has said growth is so rapid that almost infinite capacity can be absorbed.
With all the growth it is very hard to forecast, but much of the growth is coming from places unconsidered by most vendors and analysts. Remember Huawei entered the market only four years ago and instantly became a major player because of utility installed base of other equipment. Both Honeywell and Siemens are similar. Just think of LG and Samsung, well established in numerous utility services and products.

Tesla needs, quite urgently to establish TE jglobally, with vehicles to follow. There is much to learn from Huawei and BYD precedent, primarily in distribution priority tactics, not so much in technology perhaps. The next major move really should involve heat pump incorporation in both commercial and residential solution packages.

What are we waiting for? We have the pieces, all of them, including factory BESS plus energy management.

What competitive advantage does Tesla have in residential and commercial heat pumps ? Being just another solar reseller hasn’t worked out for Tesla. I seriously doubt being another heat pump provider will.

 

[Tony73]

UK Christmas ads are a UK only phenomena, normally for UK retail stores only in the UK.
Superbowl ads charge a global premium to market to mostly Americans, in English. The US is less than half of Tesla's market.

“Less than half” is not very descriptive considering there are about 40 markets all of which are less than half.
The US is 32% of volume and about 35% of auto revenue. It’s #1 in auto revenue and #2 in volume and still has tremendous room for growth. Tesla has dominant marketshare and will increase sales as EV penetration increases. It is just entering the most lucrative section of the market; full size pickups.
The U.S. is not just another market.

The argument against superbowl ads can be made without dismissing the U.S. market .

 

[EVWatcher]

What competitive advantage does Tesla have in residential and commercial heat pumps ? Being just another solar reseller hasn’t worked out for Tesla. I seriously doubt being another heat pump provider will.

I suspect the Tesla heat pump installation would have an octovalve like system. There are plenty of times when heating or cooling your house would be more efficient using air that is coming from a different place than the heat pump install location.

Even plenty of times where instead of running an heat pump just filtering air from outside and pumping it into your house would be a boatload cheaper. I doubt there’s been a study on it but I suspect a massive amount of energy could be saved in the USA just by having your HVAC system pump in air after sunset from outside your house into your house rather than running a heat pump or a compressor.

Yes you can turn of your AC and open your windows but that lacks easy automation - pre Optimus man servant at least.

Edit: integrate that with a powerwall smart home and good weather data and I suspect a lot of additional grid capacity can be optimized.

Heating and cooling is the majority of most peoples energy use at home and it hasn’t really improved in a meaningful way in decades.